canderson Posted Saturday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:40 PM At least we have the 35 mph winds to comfort us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:41 PM 5 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: I’m with you on this. At best, this is 3-6 inches for the border counties. Dry air is going to be a problem to start on the northern edge like we are. No sense in wishing this thing further north. Not wishing… NAMs & some other short range guidance are on board for LSV Warning snow. Also there are dozens of times over the years… including last year, when storms track a little further north at game time. We are not trying to “will” it up here from southern VA… It won’t take much for a slight bump north. I don’t think the LSV gets the bullseye, but I could see solid low end Warning numbers with a small shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 04:46 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 04:46 PM As if life couldn't get more complicated... Due to driver illness, I got taken off my normal routine and dropped into something I've not done before. That puts me more into an all or nothing mentality. Give me nothing so I can have as hassle free of a day as possible, or blow it out so I can shut it down and do it maybe on Tuesday instead. Anything in between will be a complicated mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:48 PM Looks like the current watches remain appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Looks like the current watches remain appropriate. I agree and where there is no watch Dauphin, Lebanon Counties should get a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Saturday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:52 PM 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Plenty of time to get a small bump north to get the LSV into the better goods like the NAM is showing. The actual storm is just going to emerge from the Rockies later today. We can still get an incremental bump north. Agree with you Blizz and I think it will come back north maybe 30 miles or so once the low starts to strengthen. Just frustrating that it’s so close and we can’t get the north trend when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Saturday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:22 PM I’m staying firm 3-5” Lebanon County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM 12z Euro still won’t budge… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM My point & click is showing what it showed last night which is 1" overnight Sunday into Monday followed by another 2-4 inches during Monday. That absolutely warrants a WWA. A total of 3-5" is not far away from a WSW as 5" is enough for WSW. Currently 28 degrees with a biting wind and wind chills down in the upper teens. Good portion of yesterday's snowfall still is on the ground in my backyard, which remains in the shade a good chunk of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Good news is that the 12z Euro appears to be on board for an event next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z Euro still won’t budge… That’s because it’s right lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good news is that the 12z Euro appears to be on board for an event next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM 2 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: That’s because it’s right lol! I forgot the storm already happened…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM 5 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: That’s because it’s right lol! If it was a cutter there's zero chance it would trend south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: If it was a cutter there's zero chance it would trend south. Exactly. I’m sorry to be such a pessimist but when was the last time a winter storm ever trended for the better for us up until game time? It has been years… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM Winds blowing 55 mph here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM 3 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Exactly. I’m sorry to be such a pessimist but when was the last time a winter storm ever trended for the better for us up until game time? It has been years… Admittedly...I'm fighting negativity hard right now for this very reason. It has been brutal the past several years along the southern tier. I haven't shoveled in nearly 4 years. (Last year I did have a decent event but even that didn't amount to anything on paved surfaces) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM So by virtue of posting next weekend's probable non-event, are we punting Monday? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:55 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Admittedly...I'm fighting negativity hard right now for this very reason. It has been brutal the past several years along the southern tier. I haven't shoveled in nearly 4 years. (Last year I did have a decent event but even that didn't amount to anything on paved surfaces) Agreed with this. This looks set to like a broom or leaf lower event for us since it’ll be so light powder. It is what it is. It’ll be pretty for a few days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Saturday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:58 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Admittedly...I'm fighting negativity hard right now for this very reason. It has been brutal the past several years along the southern tier. I haven't shoveled in nearly 4 years. (Last year I did have a decent event but even that didn't amount to anything on paved surfaces) Maybe next weekend will be our storm, but honestly this is exhausting with no big payoffs. Supposedly one of the best patterns in a long time and still… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM 14 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Exactly. I’m sorry to be such a pessimist but when was the last time a winter storm ever trended for the better for us up until game time? It has been years… Remember the final event last February when MD to the southern tier of PA was supposed to get 3 to 6. North of Harrisburg was supposed to get only a couple of inches. At the last minute the storm jogged north a bit & jackpoted just north of Harrisburg out to Allentown & the southern Poconos. I ended up with 7 & Allentown got more. Small change, but drastically changed the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:06 PM 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Remember the final event last February when MD to the southern tier of PA was supposed to get 3 to 6. North of Harrisburg was supposed to get only a couple of inches. At the last minute the storm jogged north a bit & jackpoted just north of Harrisburg out to Allentown & the southern Poconos. I ended up with 7 & Allentown got more. Small change, but drastically changed the ground truth. I wouldn't give up yet if I was you guys. I'd look at the radar trends and see what happens. The models have been wrong before. We've seen these storm go further north than progged a lot of times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Saturday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:09 PM Here’s another example of a north trend in December of 2020. For several days the southern half of CTP into northern MD was modeled consistently to be in the bullseye of 12 to 18. Then, a day or two before the storm, the creep north began. Some short term models started to introduce sleet to southern PA & pushed the snow jackpot out of MD/southern PA into central & NE PA. MDT ended up still getting 10 or 11 inches, but sleet mixed in for a few hours. MDT ended up on the southern end of double digit snow. I-80 to I-90 ended up getting amounts of 18-24, when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the good amounts. My point is, there’s still some time for small changes in the grand scheme of things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted Saturday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here’s another example of a north trend in December of 2020. For several days the southern half of CTP into northern MD was modeled consistently to be in the bullseye of 12 to 18. Then, a day or two before the storm, the creep north began. Some short term models started to introduce sleet to southern PA & pushed the snow jackpot out of MD/southern PA into central & NE PA. MDT ended up still getting 10 or 11 inches, but sleet mixed in for a few hours. MDT ended up on the southern end of double digit snow. I-80 to I-90 ended up getting amounts of 18-24, when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the good amounts. My point is, there’s still some time for small changes in the grand scheme of things. Keep the faith buddy! Your constant optimism is something special. And I mean that in a good way…not making fun haha. I’m going to write this one off as a minor event and hopefully be surprised! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Saturday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:27 PM 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I wouldn't give up yet if I was you guys. I'd look at the radar trends and see what happens. The models have been wrong before. We've seen these storm go further north than progged a lot of times. Also a case where a few runs of foot or more, and Joe Bastardi, setting unrealistic expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Saturday at 06:39 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:39 PM 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here’s another example of a north trend in December of 2020. For several days the southern half of CTP into northern MD was modeled consistently to be in the bullseye of 12 to 18. Then, a day or two before the storm, the creep north began. Some short term models started to introduce sleet to southern PA & pushed the snow jackpot out of MD/southern PA into central & NE PA. MDT ended up still getting 10 or 11 inches, but sleet mixed in for a few hours. MDT ended up on the southern end of double digit snow. I-80 to I-90 ended up getting amounts of 18-24, when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the good amounts. My point is, there’s still some time for small changes in the grand scheme of things. Wasn't that the storm that absolutely crushed our Williamsport friends? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:42 PM 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Also a case where a few runs of foot or more, and Joe Bastardi, setting unrealistic expectations. Tbh all the signs were there if it does turn out to be south of you guys. Euro stayed south. NAM the usual amped bias was north and will adjust as it gets closer. The long range HRRR looks good and will also adjust as it gets closer. Euro has been steady for days now so if it's wrong then that's a big model fail on its part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Saturday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:43 PM Saw the extreme S counties have a WSW for 3-5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Saturday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:46 PM From a northern expanse standpoint, GFS and Euro are pretty close. Where they differ is in the intensity of the WAA precip. It’s an important aspect for us because that’ll be the majority of the event up here in our subforum. Once that low transfers to the coast, it’ll pull the precip shield south and away and we’ll probably miss the back end of the shield that hangs back with the 500mb vort except for possibly the southern tier below the turnpike. That will further add to the DC/Mid-Atlantic folks’ totals. The short term/high res guidance has been coming in hot in the early going with regards to that surge of more intense WAA snowfall. So unless that changes wholesale as we get more into the nearer term, I’m more inclined to go with a more bullish outcome in the southern tier. I think CTP’s watch placement is fine right now. And speaking of CTP, since there was great consternation here (and esp on social media lol) with the rather generous ranges that map product of theirs cranks out. If you select point instead of range you’ll see a much more straight forward map. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Saturday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:49 PM 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Also a case where a few runs of foot or more, and Joe Bastardi, setting unrealistic expectations. And a lot of snow maps showing 10-16" over the southern tier. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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