Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

Just now, Ruin said:

what model run is this from 

18z GFS

[paweather]

@Blizzard of 93 this would be great to start 2025!

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Still snowing in DelMarVa.  Convoluted Miller B situation where transfer happens with dry slot then CCB from coastal for Southers PA and MA. 

 

Well, that at least gets my area to 3-6 which I'll take. Of course it all comes down to mother nature herself what actually happens, regardless of what the models show.

[AccuChris]

Happy 18z GFS happy hour!
 

Slightly lower total QPF but more expansive. Over a solid widespread major snowstorm


.

[Ruin]

Nice only if we can get the euro tic up back north a bit now. I want our local mets to look silly for only casting 1.9 inchs 

[paweather]

CTP isn’t buying anything! Snow Showers

[WmsptWx]

I would like to sign off on the 18z GFS 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

I would like to sign off on the 18z GFS 

Do you have a pen?

[canderson]

I’d like to take that GFS run into a hotel room and give it the best 20 seconds of its life.  

[WmsptWx]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’d like to take that GFS run into a hotel room and give it the best 20 seconds of its life.  

Nice that you think it watching you cry for 18 seconds would bring it joy. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

11 minutes ago, paweather said:

CTP isn’t buying anything! Snow Showers

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the extended, all attention remains on model details
associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic
coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight
northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther
south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri)
morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to
keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream
blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter
wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and
south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring
plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half
of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday,
with many more details still yet to be determined heading into
the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating
to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5
inches or more possible along the southern tier.

In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the
wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect
farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could
force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again
a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to
aforementioned factors.

PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday,
with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday.
The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of
deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.

Behind the departing storm system Tue-Thu, lake effect and
upslope snow is expected in NWerly flow. Temperatures will run
5-10 degrees below average Mon-Wed, and may bottom out at 10-15
degrees below average for Thursday

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the extended, all attention remains on model details
associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic
coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight
northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther
south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri)
morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to
keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream
blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter
wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and
south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring
plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half
of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday,
with many more details still yet to be determined heading into
the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating
to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5
inches or more possible along the southern tier.

In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the
wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect
farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could
force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again
a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to
aforementioned factors.

PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday,
with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday.
The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of
deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.

Behind the departing storm system Tue-Thu, lake effect and
upslope snow is expected in NWerly flow. Temperatures will run
5-10 degrees below average Mon-Wed, and may bottom out at 10-15
degrees below average for Thursday

 I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. 

They just have snow showers for me too. I believe they said something yesterday in their discussion posted here about not ironing out totals until Saturday.

[Yardstickgozinya]

The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of
deterministic QPF and snow forecasts

[Bubbler86]

18Z UK looks similar to 12Z through the 66 hours the 18Z runs. 

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Your mom is not fully within the 72-hour range of
deterministic QPF and snow forecasts

 

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. 

Come on Bubs you and I have been in this game for forever! I want WSW now! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

.8” of snow here and everything looks stunning. Honestly probably a bit more in the fields as they are all solidly covered. A nice appetizer for Monday. 

[canderson]

Nice snow squall here right now 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Come on Bubs you and I have been in this game for forever! I want WSW now! 

I was just letting you know that the 'snow showers' was an AI or automated thing and the NWS blokes were not on the same page.   Zone forecasts are not something to back all your chips with! 

[Bubbler86]

A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS

 

OMG!

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS

 

Don't you mean Tamaqua???

lol

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

Don't you mean Tamaqua???

lol

I would not do that to you man.  LOL

[Bubbler86]

In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight.    A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. 

[WmsptWx]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight.    A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. 

 

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight.    A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. 

We are at Wegmans and it’s snowing hard and quite slippery 

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS is going to hold in some sense.   Williamsport Atomix will like.   MA will not. 

The morning of the storm I get up and deal with whatever amount of snow I have.

I don’t worry about myself to much, If some of us get a nice storm out of this Great!!

[Yardstickgozinya]

31 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

 

 It says hours not tons. 

[WmsptWx]

Temperature is down to 23°F right now. So cold.