paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ruin said: what model run is this from 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 @Blizzard of 93 this would be great to start 2025! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Still snowing in DelMarVa. Convoluted Miller B situation where transfer happens with dry slot then CCB from coastal for Southers PA and MA. Well, that at least gets my area to 3-6 which I'll take. Of course it all comes down to mother nature herself what actually happens, regardless of what the models show. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Happy 18z GFS happy hour! Slightly lower total QPF but more expansive. Over a solid widespread major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nice only if we can get the euro tic up back north a bit now. I want our local mets to look silly for only casting 1.9 inchs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CTP isn’t buying anything! Snow Showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I would like to sign off on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WmsptWx said: I would like to sign off on the 18z GFS Do you have a pen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I’d like to take that GFS run into a hotel room and give it the best 20 seconds of its life. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I’d like to take that GFS run into a hotel room and give it the best 20 seconds of its life. Nice that you think it watching you cry for 18 seconds would bring it joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, paweather said: CTP isn’t buying anything! Snow Showers .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the extended, all attention remains on model details associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri) morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday, with many more details still yet to be determined heading into the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5 inches or more possible along the southern tier. In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to aforementioned factors. PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday, with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday. The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts. Behind the departing storm system Tue-Thu, lake effect and upslope snow is expected in NWerly flow. Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below average Mon-Wed, and may bottom out at 10-15 degrees below average for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Yardstickgozinya said: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the extended, all attention remains on model details associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri) morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday, with many more details still yet to be determined heading into the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5 inches or more possible along the southern tier. In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to aforementioned factors. PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday, with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday. The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts. Behind the departing storm system Tue-Thu, lake effect and upslope snow is expected in NWerly flow. Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below average Mon-Wed, and may bottom out at 10-15 degrees below average for Thursday I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. They just have snow showers for me too. I believe they said something yesterday in their discussion posted here about not ironing out totals until Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18Z UK looks similar to 12Z through the 66 hours the 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Your mom is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I already sent him that but guess it did not convince. Come on Bubs you and I have been in this game for forever! I want WSW now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 .8” of snow here and everything looks stunning. Honestly probably a bit more in the fields as they are all solidly covered. A nice appetizer for Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nice snow squall here right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Come on Bubs you and I have been in this game for forever! I want WSW now! I was just letting you know that the 'snow showers' was an AI or automated thing and the NWS blokes were not on the same page. Zone forecasts are not something to back all your chips with! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS OMG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A random web shot from a user in Hazelton waiting to see if the 18Z EC can back the GFS Don't you mean Tamaqua??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Voyager said: Don't you mean Tamaqua??? lol I would not do that to you man. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight. A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight. A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In all seriousness, several people have told me that the black ice is bad over here tonight. A lot of melted snow and temp down to 24. We are at Wegmans and it’s snowing hard and quite slippery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS is going to hold in some sense. Williamsport Atomix will like. MA will not. The morning of the storm I get up and deal with whatever amount of snow I have. I don’t worry about myself to much, If some of us get a nice storm out of this Great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 31 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: It says hours not tons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Temperature is down to 23°F right now. So cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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