Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[sauss06]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Trees & mulch caved.

Car tops showing initial signs of caving.

should i start walking my snow blower north to help you?

[MAG5035]

56 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Flurries and 33 in Maytown.

Most important thing I saw from the Euro is it didn't move further south. 

I’m not budging from my original thinking quite yet of advisory snows I-80 south and warning snow potential in the bottom two tiers of counties across C-PA. I may eventually concede one or both of those tiers but I want to see the short range play out more, as we’re just barely into range of the NAM/RGEM and not even into the longer HRRR range. That stuff is going to see how the overall precip shield sets up better. I think we’ll still eventually see a more widespread snow shield into PA even if it’s lighter snows and we concede the whole swath of 6”+ to the DC folks. But if that happens the northern tier above 80 and especially NE PA might not see much.

Other thing to consider may be a secondary swath of higher snowfall due to better ratios. Lift would be further aloft (700mb level or a bit higher) in a further south solution and temps are plenty cold up there for good snow growth in that scenario with this storm and on down the column as well (less than -8ºC at 850mb on the Euro). 

 

 

 

 

[paweather]

CTP now has snow showers for Sunday / Monday geezus. 

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

On the contrary to my somewhat optimistic post above - 

The concerning thing to me with regard to the Euro is that the warning level snows are about 50 miles south of the M/D line and that puts a lot of the LSV at 100 miles or so away. That's a pretty significant distance at this time frame. And also, I'm not sure that I buy how big of an area is in the blues. I think in the past when storms encountered confluence of this magnitude there was a razor sharp edge to the snowfall that the Euro simply isn't portraying today. 

Feb  2010 saw a 75 mile difference between 0" and 24"+. 

PSU Hoffman shared his thoughts on this subject within the past half hour in the MA thread. Said it better than I did here but the same message. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

PSU Hoffman shared his thoughts on this subject within the past half hour in the MA thread. Said it better than I did here but the same message. 

I think some of the probably unrealistic snow maps showing almost all of PA getting near a foot makes it a bit hard to accept if it ends up the areas below us actually get it (and in a MUCH less wide band.)

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

probably unrealistic snow maps

Blasphemy! I thought 100% sure last night I was in line for 15.5"!

BTW - it is a truly beautiful scene here right now. A nice snowfall that is now coating all surfaces and 31 degrees. Time for a walk. 

[paweather]

HH runs coming up. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’m not budging from my original thinking quite yet of advisory snows I-80 south and warning snow potential in the bottom two tiers of counties across C-PA. I may eventually concede one or both of those tiers but I want to see the short range play out more, as we’re just barely into range of the NAM/RGEM and not even into the longer HRRR range. That stuff is going to see how the overall precip shield sets up better. I think we’ll still eventually see a more widespread snow shield into PA even if it’s lighter snows and we concede the whole swath of 6”+ to the DC folks. But if that happens the northern tier above 80 and especially NE PA might not see much.

Other thing to consider may be a secondary swath of higher snowfall due to better ratios. Lift would be further aloft (700mb level or a bit higher) in a further south solution and temps are plenty cold up there for good snow growth in that scenario with this storm and on down the column as well (less than -8ºC at 850mb on the Euro). 

 

 

 

 

Fwiw, Srefs run to run comparison. 

[Superstorm]

Blasphemy! I thought 100% sure last night I was in line for 15.5"!
BTW - it is a truly beautiful scene here right now. A nice snowfall that is now coating all surfaces and 31 degrees. Time for a walk. 

Not a flake here.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Not a flake here.


.

First flakes started 90 minutes ago - probably been about 45 minutes now for steady light snow. 

[mitchnick]

Steady light snow with no discernable accumulation. 5th time it snowed here this year with .6" to show for it. Ughhh

[Chris78]

@Bubbler86

I think we're sitting in a pretty good spot.

Still 48 hours to go for the last minute north trend.

Sometimes the last minute north shift doesn't happen , when you have that gyre pinwheeling north of Maine but we've been burned so many time with that last minute shift north I'd rather be on the north side of things

 

[Storm Clouds]

This storm has been exhausting my goodness…

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@Bubbler86

I think we're sitting in a pretty good spot.

Still 48 hours to go for the last minute north trend.

Sometimes the last minute north shift doesn't happen , when you have that gyre pinwheeling north of Maine but we've been burned so many time with that last minute shift north I'd rather be on the north side of things

 

Yea, for PA standards we are golden.  I am still not going over 2-4" as of the last runs because there is no reason too at this point.  Still some evidence that it will still be limited to that but some of those crazy model runs yesterday where the primary was running over N VA and staying intact longer made me start to waver.   If you told me I had to pick a number right now I would say 3-6" for us but still think our respective NWS offices at least do a Winter Storm Watch for now. 

[CASH_COOP]

WPC pushing the .50 qpf line north 

[WmsptWx]

Pretty sizable snow squall warning out in the western part of the state.

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, for PA standards we are golden.  I am still not going over 2-4" as of the last runs because there is no reason too at this point.  Still some evidence that it will still be limited to that but some of those crazy model runs yesterday where the primary was running over N VA and staying intact longer made me start to waver.   If you told me I had to pick a number right now I would say 3-6" for us but still think our respective NWS offices at least do a Winter Storm Watch for now. 

 I'm cautiously optimistic. The Gfs runs have been pretty big for our area. If GFS and Euro meet in the middle we're more than good.

I was a little concerned yesterday when the runs were already pulling the bullseye north of DC.

 

[Burghblizz]

9 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Pretty sizable snow squall warning out in the western part of the state.

Means business. Wind driven and close to whiteout here. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

 I'm cautiously optimistic. The Gfs runs have been pretty big for our area. If GFS and Euro meet in the middle we're more than good.

I was a little concerned yesterday when the runs were already pulling the bullseye north of DC.

 

I think I will be shoveling, that is where I am at.  LOL.    

 

Any accums down there for you today?  Snowing on and offer here but just wet. 

[Ruin]

this is what abc 27 is claiming we will have at the end of the storm mon lol what

[CASH_COOP]

Best rates today 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think I will be shoveling, that is where I am at.  LOL.    

 

Any accums down there for you today?  Snowing on and offer here but just wet. 

Nothing. Snowed just enough to wetten the roads

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, CASH_COOP said:

Best rates today 

A very rare time when I have slightly more than you. (and not much at that  )

[CASH_COOP]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A very rare time when I have slightly more than you. (and not much at that  )

Birds have really been hitting the feeders hard today.  That’s def a chapter in the weenie snow handbook 

[CarlislePaWx]

At 2:30pm here in Carlisle, the snow that had been falling moderately has temporarily ended for the 2nd time.  At the time of heaviest rates my temperature dropped to 29.8 (not bad for my earlier prediction of 30.0)  During the past hour accumulations began in earnest on sidewalks and my snowboard.  Officially I have now recorded 0.3" of snow.  It was melting on the board for a good chunk of the first several hours.  Where it never melted was on my grass which currently has 0.7".  I like the look of the grass, however, I have to go with my "official" board measurement.  With the snow temporarily having stopped my temperature has risen to 30.6 degrees.  The sun's position in the sky has dropped sufficiently as to no longer be a factor in anything melting (like my sidewalks).  It still looks like the best may be yet to come beginning between 4 and 5 pm.  We'll see.

[CASH_COOP]

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

At 2:30pm here in Carlisle, the snow that had been falling moderately has temporarily ended for the 2nd time.  At the time of heaviest rates my temperature dropped to 29.8 (not bad for my earlier prediction of 30.0)  During the past hour accumulations began in earnest on sidewalks and my snowboard.  Officially I have now recorded 0.3" of snow.  It was melting on the board for a good chunk of the first several hours.  Where it never melted was on my grass which currently has 0.7".  I like the look of the grass, however, I have to go with my "official" board measurement.  With the snow temporarily having stopped my temperature has risen to 30.6 degrees.  The sun's position in the sky has dropped sufficiently as to no longer be a factor in anything melting (like my sidewalks).  It still looks like the best may be yet to come beginning between 4 and 5 pm.  We'll see.

Measure off the deck.  You can gain a couple of tenths 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

CTP now has snow showers for Sunday / Monday geezus. 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the extended, all attention remains on model details
associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic
coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight
northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther
south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri)
morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to
keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream
blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter
wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and
south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring
plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half
of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday,
with many more details still yet to be determined heading into
the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating
to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5
inches or more possible along the southern tier.

In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the
wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect
farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could
force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again
a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to
aforementioned factors.

PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday,
with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday.
The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of
deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.

[MAG5035]

I’m not home today but here’s the situation there. Some of the snow on the ground is from the inch of wind driven squalls we got New Year’s night.

I called in for an official close up measurement of the snowboard haha, about an inch today so far with the snow squall warned stuff still incoming. 

 

[anthonyweather]

11 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said:

Birds have really been hitting the feeders hard today.  That’s def a chapter in the weenie snow handbook 

They are hitting the ground here

[Mount Joy Snowman]

My wife says it's coming down real good at home right now, as a potent little band moves through.  Things have mostly stopped up here in Harrisburg as the sky tries to brighten a bit, but still a pretty scene.  Seems like Lancaster may make out the best for this little event, which is what much of the hi-res guidance was hinting at.