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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Flurries and 33 in Maytown.

Most important thing I saw from the Euro is it didn't move further south. 

I keep watching for the relaxation next weekend and it keeps showing on all suites with temps getting to or above freezing multiple days.   If we end up in the high end wwa/low end wsw area, temps of 32-33 with sun will wipe us out quickly.   Another cold shot coming post next weekend but would prefer we bridge it with temps staying in the 20's to try and keep the pack AND potentially freeze some lakes for skating. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@ 10-1 this is a Kuch low end WSW/very high end wwa Jack for much of the southern counties...plowable up your way. 

I'm hoping. Eps, like the operational, did increase qpf from the 6z, so that "seems" to be the bottom...hopefully. If we can can at least add .1", preferably more, over the next 2 and half days, my hope of at least 6" should be distinctly possible. 

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On the contrary to my somewhat optimistic post above - 

The concerning thing to me with regard to the Euro is that the warning level snows are about 50 miles south of the M/D line and that puts a lot of the LSV at 100 miles or so away. That's a pretty significant distance at this time frame. And also, I'm not sure that I buy how big of an area is in the blues. I think in the past when storms encountered confluence of this magnitude there was a razor sharp edge to the snowfall that the Euro simply isn't portraying today. 

Feb  2010 saw a 75 mile difference between 0" and 24"+. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

On the contrary to my somewhat optimistic post above - 

The concerning thing to me with regard to the Euro is that the warning level snows are about 50 miles south of the M/D line and that puts a lot of the LSV at 100 miles or so away. That's a pretty significant distance at this time frame. And also, I'm not sure that I buy how big of an area is in the blues. I think in the past when storms encountered confluence of this magnitude their was a razor sharp edge to the snowfall that the Euro simply isn't portraying today. 

Feb  2010 saw a 75 mile difference between 0" and 24"+. 

Not that I disagree, but would add that it is common for there to be pretty sharp cutoffs due to confluence. None sharper to what I witnessed on the 1/3/22 storm that missed all of PA. I  think ur familiar with 795 off the Baltimore beltway. When I went to work in Glen Burnie the day after, there was a thin coating at the end of 795 where it hits Rt. 140. By the time I got to the Beltway, there was 3", and then 7" in Glen Burnie. That was a brutal cutoff that had the storm been bigger, may have rivaled 2010...I  say may.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Not that I disagree, but would add that it is common for there to be pretty sharp cutoffs due to confluence. None sharper to what I witnessed on the 1/3/22 storm that missed all of PA. I  think ur familiar with 795 off the Baltimore beltway. When I went to work in Glen Burnie the day after, there was a thin coating at the end of 795 where it hits Rt. 140. By the time I got to the Beltway, there was 3", and then 7" in Glen Burnie. That was a brutal cutoff that had the storm been bigger, may have rivaled 2010...I  say may.

We worded things differently but what you said is exactly what I was trying to say. This isn't the storm that you want to be in the blues going in. That sounds weird but I totally believe that it's true. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We worded things differently but what you said is exactly what I was trying to say. This isn't the storm that you want to be in the blues going in. That sounds weird but I totally believe that it's true. 

I am not even sure we are even remotely close the evolution yet either.   A Southern MA slider is now on the table along with the still more prevalent transfer suites.     It does seem unlikely at this point that this is going to make the entire CPA and MA forum happy.  Those amped up transfer scenarios are bring the warm goods to a lot of those folks down there. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sizzling off the presses: (you want to be south of the turnpike)

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

 

This dude predicted a light to moderate snowstorm during the 10 days surrounding New Year's 63 days ago. And while climo says that probabilities are high during that time, this is still a pretty good take in what was forecast by many to be a dud winter.

Of course, it hasn't happened yet. 

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