Yardstickgozinya Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I hope you're ok out there @Bubbler86. I was thinking of you today as the next system comes into the range of the hrrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 57 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z GFS still on the snow train this weekend Thank God no other model shows anything like that and CTP is partly to mostly sunny the entire weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, AccuChris said: 18z GFS still on the snow train this weekend . Wow, 2 runs in a row… Hopefully it gets some company tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 JB said he's not ruling the gfs out. Maybe it can score the coup this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Below is the February 2025 Climate Summary for Chester County PA. February being the 3rd consecutive winter month this season to feature below normal temperatures. This was the first time this has happened since the winter of 2013-14. With an average winter (December through February) temperature of 31.6 degrees this was the 60th coldest winter with records back 132 years to the winter of 1894-95. It was also our coldest winter in 10 years since the winter of 2014-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: JB said he's not ruling the gfs out. Maybe it can score the coup this time. JB says a lot of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 SPC AC 040614 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells@Itstrainingtime. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Make note that this mornings forecast discussion must have been completed before the spc expanded the sligh risk north. I also trimmed down both the Spc and Noaa forcast to only include localized convective and precipitation details to reduce clutter. A deep surface low is progged to track west of PA into the GrtLks by late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ahead of this system,a 50-60kt southerly low level jet and associated plume of Gulf moisture is progged to sweep across PA. A ribbon of +3-4SD pwats, combined with strong upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough, should support a band of moderate to heavy rain the first half of Wednesday, followed by a round of PM convection along the trailing cold/occluded front. Elevated instability and strong large scale forcing in the model guidance supports a chance of tsra across the entire area Wed PM. While the focus for possible severe weather is over the southern tier of the state, a MRGL outlook covers much of central PA with a sliver of SLGT extending into far southern Lancaster and York Counties where proximity to the warm sector and where more appreciable instability is possible along and south of potential triple point low track. EPS plumes still suggestive of rainfall totals by late Wed in the 0.75 and 1 inch range over the bulk of Central PA, with orographic enhancement leading to totals close to 1.5 inches over the higher ridgetops of Sullivan/Schuylkill Counties. This amount of rain by itself should not cause flooding issues based on latest flash flood/headwater guidance from the RFC. However, will have to watch for possible localized ice jam issues over the N Mtn, and contribution for SWE locked up in the ice/snow pack over the North Central Mountains, which NOHRSC shows is locally 1-2"+ and sfc dewpoints in the upper 40s would promote appreciable melting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Low of 28. Tomorrow looks like a miserable day, albeit a much needed one. Hoping for maybe three quarters of an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 32 degrees this morning. wind and rain tomorrow, it sure doesn’t sound like to pleasant of an experience. I’m about ready to put my snowblower away for the winter. That way we can get some more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: JB says a lot of things. JB should probably sit the next few plays out. Or retire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Some rare above normal temperatures over the next couple days before we trend back to normal to below normal temperatures through the rest of the work week and through the upcoming weekend. We are running under 60% of normal rainfall so far this year so the showers tomorrow will be welcome for the many area farmers and their future lawns later this month. We should see between 0.50" to 0.75" of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Tornado watch posted for the Arklatex until 3:00 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Max Velocity, or as I call him "We have Ryan Hall, Y'all at Home" is live streaming the Arklatex storm chase. It's getting ugly near Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Man this place is a library during a funeral... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Man this place is a library during a funeral... Yes it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 4 hours ago, pawatch said: 32 degrees this morning. wind and rain tomorrow, it sure doesn’t sound like to pleasant of an experience. Tomorrow is my first solo day with the new company. As I've mentioned in the past, it always rains or snows when I start a new job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 32 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Man this place is a library during a funeral... Yeah it is. @Itstrainingtime has gone radio silent too, hope he's alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 17 hours ago, Voyager said: Thank God no other model shows anything like that and CTP is partly to mostly sunny the entire weekend. Yep models are not even close 80% of the time model shows snow no other model shows. Then Forcast is 56 and sunny lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah it is. @Itstrainingtime has gone radio silent too, hope he's alright. Bubbler is good. Just stepping back. I think ITT mentioned the same late last week. It sucks but understandable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 It's 64 and sunny today. I no longer have an interest in snow. Let's play ball. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Made it up to 60ºF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Just hit 60° here in Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 61 here now. Probably will be the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Contrary to popular belief, I am not a bot, not compromised. Posting on mobile limits upload size. But I am proudly wearing my newly purchased shirt, previously discussed. https://www.heavyslime.com/ its the black shirt with the big bird In other news, my work travels took me from New Cumberland to Carlise to Shippensburg, back to Carlise and ended the day in Mechanicsburg, near CV High School. Sun broke out around 11:30 when I was leaving Ship. Winds picked up when I got back to Carlisle, but that sun is warm. Hit 62 at 2:49 just off of the Carlisle Pike in the Cumberland Estates neighborhood. Beautiful day for outside work. Put some grass seed down tonight, ahead of the rain tomorrow. Dogs did a number on the lawn this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 60 for the high here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Highlight of my day was the 30 minute drive down 174 to Ship. All the farmers were out, taking advantage of next weeks warm temps and the rain tomorrow. The spring time, Central PA smell was in the air, and it was wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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