paweather Posted Monday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:00 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: There are posters in other regions of this forum that have eclipsed 100,000! Thanks for compiling this. I'm hoping that the top 4 seeds get a first round bye. Top 8 get the bye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM 95+% of my posts I would bet we're accrued before I stopped posting in 1/18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 PM Nothing I hate more than cold, dry late winters. And that's looking like what we're in store for over the next 3-4 weeks, at least down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:12 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nothing I hate more than cold, dry late winters. And that's looking like what we're in store for over the next 3-4 weeks, at least down here. And windy. We never fail at winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Well except for a very shallow wave that drops 1 to at the most 2" of snow for Southern PA next Saturday, the Euro is a snoozer. The cutter later next week even manages to skip much of this forum leaving little precip. Stark difference from the copious qpf GFS. Things get interesting after 300 but...after 300. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Well except for a very shallow wave that drops 1 to at the most 2" of snow for Southern PA next Saturday, the Euro is a snoozer. The cutter later next week even manages to skip much of this forum leaving little precip. Models aside there seems to be a growing thought/consensus that we're entering a quiet period but with hope before we flip fully to spring. March might be friendly to us. In March I much prefer larger events and perhaps this year will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:18 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Models aside there seems to be a growing thought/consensus that we're entering a quiet period but with hope before we flip fully to spring. March might be friendly to us. In March I much prefer larger events and perhaps this year will deliver. I think we have at least one system with some decent qpf before the month is out. Decent would be 1/4" or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:19 PM Last several runs of the European Model: In 24 hours Rehoboth went from historic to a dusting: 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 PM 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And windy. We never fail at winds. More strong winds Friday it seems. We are in the strong winds every 4-5 day season. It last through March. It’s awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM We haven’t had a good March winter for awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 37 minutes ago, canderson said: Wind reports Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Pennsylvania... ...Adams County... Cashtown 1 S 51 MPH 0700 AM 02/17 COOP ...Bedford County... Bedford Airport 47 MPH 0515 AM 02/17 AWOS ...Blair County... Altoona-Blair County Airport 59 MPH 0502 PM 02/16 AWOS Blair Helibase 48 MPH 0116 AM 02/17 RAWS ...Cambria County... Johnstown Airport 58 MPH 0420 PM 02/16 ASOS 1 E Cresson 50 MPH 1125 PM 02/16 PADOT ...Centre County... PSU Beaver Stadium WxSTEM 55 MPH 0620 PM 02/16 MESOWEST University Park Airport 49 MPH 1053 AM 02/17 AWOS PSU Golf Course WxSTEM 47 MPH 0610 PM 02/16 MESOWEST 1 NE Port Matilda 47 MPH 0625 PM 02/16 PADOT Zion 45 MPH 0638 PM 02/16 CWOP ...Clearfield County... Clearfield Airport 51 MPH 0559 PM 02/16 ASOS ...Clinton County... Lock Haven Airport 45 MPH 0645 PM 02/16 AWOS Coffin Rock 45 MPH 1016 AM 02/17 RAWS ...Cumberland County... 6 SSE Bloserville 47 MPH 0725 AM 02/17 PADOT ...Dauphin County... ELIZABETHVILLE 63 MPH 0714 PM 02/16 CWOP Harrisburg 56 MPH 0400 PM 02/16 MESOWEST Harrisburg Intl Airport 53 MPH 0601 PM 02/16 ASOS Hummelstown 48 MPH 0706 PM 02/16 CWOP Reach Cyber CharSch WxSTEM 45 MPH 0720 PM 02/16 MESOWEST ...Franklin County... 1 NNW Marion 49 MPH 0625 PM 02/16 PADOT ...Fulton County... 2 S Crystal Springs 54 MPH 0945 PM 02/16 PADOT ...Juniata County... 3 S Alfarata 57 MPH 0650 PM 02/16 PADOT ...Lancaster County... Lancaster Airport 58 MPH 0740 PM 02/16 ASOS Lititz 58 MPH 0824 PM 02/16 ASOS Manheim 55 MPH 0745 PM 02/16 CWOP 1 E Rothsville 52 MPH 0641 PM 02/16 Public Elizabethtown 48 MPH 0836 PM 02/16 CWOP ...Lebanon County... 2 ENE Harper Tavern 58 MPH 0630 PM 02/16 Trained Spotter Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown 53 MPH 0917 AM 02/17 AWOS ...Lycoming County... Williamsport Airport 55 MPH 0123 AM 02/17 ASOS ...McKean County... Bradford Airport 53 MPH 0307 AM 02/17 ASOS ...Mifflin County... Mifflin County Airport-RVL 64 MPH 0355 AM 02/17 AWOS Lewistown 53 MPH 0411 PM 02/16 Dept of Highways Chestnut Springs 46 MPH 0451 PM 02/16 RAWS ...Perry County... Newport 49 MPH 0651 PM 02/16 Dept of Highways 2 ENE Newport 49 MPH 0725 PM 02/16 PADOT ...Schuylkill County... Joe Zerbey Airport 51 MPH 0735 PM 02/16 AWOS ...Snyder County... Selinsgrove 48 MPH 1047 PM 02/16 ASOS ...Somerset County... Somerset 52 MPH 0600 PM 02/16 CWOP Ogletown 52 MPH 0610 PM 02/16 PADOT Somerset Airport 48 MPH 0355 PM 02/16 AWOS ...Union County... LEWISBURG 46 MPH 0322 AM 02/17 CWOP ...York County... Capitol City Airport 49 MPH 0916 AM 02/17 ASOS York Airport 47 MPH 0429 PM 02/16 ASOS Dover 47 MPH 0445 PM 02/16 CWOP https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/api/1/nwstext/202502171626-KCTP-NOUS41-PNSCTP?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0vbrPgWkpJG5GK2uIOJFO31NFIkc2vcUW04-sKcs8iPHkBd13opzchAkk_aem_AbnQOxQcr1ik8qO5sQLOpg Thanks for sharing that PNS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Last several runs of the European Model: In 24 hours Rehoboth went from historic to a dusting: My sister lives between Richmond and Williamsburg about 1.5 miles from Colonial Downs track. The Euro went from 14" yesterday to 3 or 4" today and I told her not to be surprised if it keeps going down. Of course, she's not a weenie and is fine with the reduction. She must be crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM 3 minutes ago, paweather said: We haven’t had a good March winter for awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 PM 2 minutes ago, paweather said: We haven’t had a good March winter for awhile Not a fan of March winters as a former high school spring sports coach! Baseball in PIAA should be in the fall, but there's no way with king football. Track and field is ok...but often damp, cold and windy for both the runner and throwers! Love the 4 seasons! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Mjo has us in the great phases for winter storms for the next 3 weeks or so (phases 8, 1, & 2.) It wouldn't be a shock to see the models starting to give some favorable looks as a result. I just am tired of the threat BS with nothing decent, if anything, to show for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:48 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Mjo has us in the great phases for winter storms for the next 3 weeks or so (phases 8, 1, & 2.) It wouldn't be a shock to see the models starting to give some favorable looks as a result. I just am tired of the threat BS with nothing decent, if anything, to show for it. Signs of a real torch after next week though. I can’t remember the last March snowstorm we had. It seems like it’s been years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:24 PM 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Mjo has us in the great phases for winter storms for the next 3 weeks or so (phases 8, 1, & 2.) It wouldn't be a shock to see the models starting to give some favorable looks as a result. I just am tired of the threat BS with nothing decent, if anything, to show for it. I had commented above that I think we start getting more precip chances soon (could very well be rain or snow) and that is predicated more on the old fashioned, though scientifically solid, premise that as more drastic temp changes and differences become more prevalent in late winter/early spring, precip will follow. I do not think it is wall-to-wall cold over the next 2-3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:33 PM 39 minutes ago, canderson said: Signs of a real torch after next week though. I can’t remember the last March snowstorm we had. It seems like it’s been years. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I had commented above that I think we start getting more precip chances soon (could very well be rain or snow) and that is predicated more on the old fashioned, though scientifically solid, premise that as more drastic temp changes and differences become more prevalent in late winter/early spring, precip will follow. I do not think it is wall-to-wall cold over the next 2-3 weeks. I don't think we get sustaining cold or warm, but the AI has the NAO negative at the end of its run today along with a decent new cold shot heading south from Canada. I think we're stuck in the middle of both seasons but with more cold than warm starting today thru 3/10-15. Just based on what I'm seeing on modeling, MJO, and the general reluctance of winter to give up in Niñas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:35 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I don't think we get sustaining cold or warm, but the AI has the NAO negative at the end of its run today along with a decent new cold shot heading south from Canada. I think we're stuck in the middle of both seasons but with more cold than warm starting today thru 3/10-15. Just based on what I'm seeing on modeling, MJO, and the general reluctance of winter to give up in Niñas. This afternoon the warmth ha subdued for sure. We’ll see! I’m at 16.2” snow on the year. Hope that’s not my total but kinda feel it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:40 PM 49 minutes ago, canderson said: Signs of a real torch after next week though. I can’t remember the last March snowstorm we had. It seems like it’s been years. March 2018 we had a doozy on the spring equinox. I measured 17.3" from that one. March 2019 we had snow on snow early in the month with most of us posting 6-10" snow depths. It's been pretty quiet since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:43 PM 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't think we get sustaining cold or warm, but the AI has the NAO negative at the end of its run today along with a decent new cold shot heading south from Canada. I think we're stuck in the middle of both seasons but with more cold than warm starting today thru 3/10-15. Just based on what I'm seeing on modeling, MJO, and the general reluctance of winter to give up in Niñas. I agree, I see no torch but I think we have highs in the 50's and 60's before the month is out. I am not at all calling Spring but think we do have some temp variation...more so than we did through much of winter. One thing I like to look at the ensembles for is mean temps and the EPS and GEPS are pretty much AN straight through (for highs) after this week. I do not think we get to 45-50 every single day, the variability is what I am hoping for in saying we "should" have some precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Monday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:46 PM 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Last several runs of the European Model: In 24 hours Rehoboth went from historic to a dusting: Yeah we need better models to handle storms the current ones just don't cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:46 PM 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: March 2018 we had a doozy on the spring equinox. I measured 17.3" from that one. March 2019 we had snow on snow early in the month with most of us posting 6-10" snow depths. It's been pretty quiet since. I for some reason was thinking 2019 started in February but that’s right it was March. Still, that’s 6! years ago. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Laurels look beautiful… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:32 PM 18z NAM with yet another crawl north - if it does that 2 or 3 more cycles it will snow in southern PA. Of course, it's on a desolate island... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:38 PM At hour 63 it actually got light snow into SE PA. Delmarva was back in the goods again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:38 PM Winds flipped a delta plane upside down in Toronto. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:40 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Plows down for far south PA. Looks like Dt's first call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:40 PM DT lovin' the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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