Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[canderson]

Winds are back to where the were last evening. 40 sustained and gusting to 50+. 
 

The house shaking is getting real old. 

[Bubbler86]

No love on the Icon and rgem so not a lot confidence with other globals being any better. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Top winds:

MU Weather Center

The anticipated 50-60 mph wind gusts have certainly verified over the past 18 hours! Peak gusts reached 47 mph at York Apt, 53 mph at Harrisburg Int’l Apt, 56 mph at Reading Apt and 58 mph at Lancaster Apt.

Maytown airport: 48 mph

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Winds are back to where the were last evening. 40 sustained and gusting to 50+. 
 

The house shaking is getting real old. 

I agree this wind is BS! Lost power a ton of times.

[canderson]

Just had consecutive 56 mph gusts

[canderson]

This is Insanity. Power is out, siding is shaking loose, it sounds like a tornado almost 

[Festus]

Nothing compared to some of you but my upwind neighbor has a bunch of locust trees.  I now have several thousand of those big ass seed pods covering my yard.  Man I hate those trees.

[anotherman]

This is Insanity. Power is out, siding is shaking loose, it sounds like a tornado almost 

Wind bent one of the bars on the trampoline and threw our heavy Adirondack chairs into the fire pit.

[Jns2183]

I am not seeing that unless you are assuming no precip through the rest of the month
 

None is forcast

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

None is forcast

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

That would put us number 8 then end of the month.    But decent chance we seem "some" qpf on Thursday.    There is also a potential coastal this time next week. 

[Bubbler86]

GFS has a coastal storm for the taking at the time stamp below but this guy is just too late again

 

[Bubbler86]

Temp sensitive system moves along the south 7 days from now on the GFS.  Turns to a soaking rain for most of the LSV but fall line not far away. 

 

[paweather]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Temp sensitive system moves along the south 7 days from now on the GFS.  Turns to a soaking rain for most of the LSV but fall line not far away. 

 

Dang L up in Canada 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Dang L up in Canada 

It is not cold going into it either.  But is our next trackable event IMO. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

It is not cold going into it either.  But is our next trackable event IMO. 

Event two next week.  It will change shortly but for viewing

 

[Rd9108]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Event two next week.  It will change shortly but for viewing

 

Congrats Virginia!!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Congrats Virginia!!

Hahah.  On paper this matches more what happened this past weekend.  GEM has a warmish clipper around the same time so the confidence of major changes is quite high. 

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is not cold going into it either.  But is our next trackable event IMO. 

Agreed something to watch for.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

WARNING:  This will be a long post but given the mood of the board lately, I wanted to tell a little story that I hope you'll find as joyful and rewarding as I did experiencing it.

So, our neighborhood has an old guy who walks the neighborhood every day, many times a day, without fail.  He's the type of guy who knows everyone's kids, carries treats in his pockets for all the dogs, and gives his little two finger wave to everyone he sees.  His name is Carl and it's impossible to not, at the very least, know of him.  If there were a vote for neighborhood president Carl would win in a landslide.  We are relatively new to the development so I've only ever talked to Carl maybe 5-10 times and never really in-depth.

Well, yesterday I was out checking the mail in the cold rain and Carl comes walking by, because of course he does, that's what Carl does, no matter the weather.  I shout out to him, "Hey Carl, how about those winds coming?"  That simple comment led to Carl coming over and talking to me about the weather for a good 15-20 minutes.  Turns out he is a complete weather nut like us.  I had no idea.  He told me about all the old meteorologists and professors he loved to follow, most of whom I'd never heard of ha.  He had also been a big Bastardi guy for decades and was talking about how he just watched some video of him talking about the upcoming storm potential.  I quickly realized Carl was the real deal; he was one of us.  He went on and on about all the models by name and mentioned the SER, PNA, NAO, MJO, and any other weather acronym you could think of.  He knew them all.  We bonded over the fact that we both had rain gauges and weather stations and kept detailed records of our precipitation going back decades, his much longer than mine of course.  We talked about how our wives thought we were crazy but also how they constantly needed us for weather advice.  The more we talked the more his eyes lit up.  You could feel his sense of pure joy at having someone else to talk to who loved weather as much as him.  It was palpable.

We talked and talked and talked.  He thought the midweek storm was going to pull back west a bit and I told him I thought it would stay suppressed to our southeast, both of us giving a nod to the fact that in the end we had no clue where it would end up haha.  Weather led to other talk.  "Oh, you studied Statistics at Penn State?  I always had a bit of trouble with that when I was at Wharton."  Turns out he was a Penn guy.  "Oh, you tutored Stat too?  I always had a penchant for teaching others."  On and on we went, both of us just standing there in the cold rain and with no intention of the conversation ending.  He told me of some neighborhood gossip as only Carl can and then ended by saying something to the effect of, "You know, weather is what it's all about.  There's nothing greater, nothing more powerful or unpredictable.  It has an effect on everything we do and affects our most important moments.  Everything from D-Day to sporting events to weddings and funerals.  Most importantly, it humbles us."  

Finally, he smiled before giving an obligatory nod and saying "alright then" as he waved and walked away.  His gate was that of an old man.  You know the type, wobbling back'n'forth, probably from one too many injuries over the years or a replaced hip or maybe just too many miles.  It was the type of gate that just keeps on going, until one day it doesn't.  I hope to see a lot more of Carl in the future, lord knows he'll be around, and around, and around.  Moral of the story is this:  talk to your neighbors, find yourself a Carl.  You'll be better for it.  I promise.  And who knows, you may just find someone else who enjoys this crazy hobby as much as you do.  It hit me yesterday that weather means a lot more than just tracking storms or being angry when we miss out; it's what binds all of us.  I'm glad I got to meet the real Carl, and I think he was too.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

WARNING:  This will be a long post but given the mood of the board lately, I wanted to tell a little story that I hope you'll find as joyful and rewarding as I did experiencing it.

So, our neighborhood has an old guy who walks the neighborhood every day, many times a day, without fail.  He's the type of guy who knows everyone's kids, carries treats in his pockets for all the dogs, and gives his little two finger wave to everyone he sees.  His name is Carl and it's impossible to not, at the very least, know of him.  If there were a vote for neighborhood president Carl would win in a landslide.  We are relatively new to the development so I've only ever talked to Carl maybe 5-10 times and never really in-depth.

Well, yesterday I was out checking the mail in the cold rain and Carl comes walking by, because of course he does, that's what Carl does, no matter the weather.  I shout out to him, "Hey Carl, how about those winds coming?"  That simple comment led to Carl coming over and talking to me about the weather for a good 15-20 minutes.  Turns out he is a complete weather nut like us.  I had no idea.  He told me about all the old meteorologists and professors he loved to follow, most of whom I'd never heard of ha.  He had also been a big Bastardi guy for decades and was talking about how he just watched some video of him talking about the upcoming storm potential.  I quickly realized Carl was the real deal; he was one of us.  He went on and on about all the models by name and mentioned the SER, PNA, NAO, MJO, and any other weather acronym you could think of.  He knew them all.  We bonded over the fact that we both had rain gauges and weather stations and kept detailed records of our precipitation going back decades, his much longer than mine of course.  He talked about how our wives thought we were crazy but also how they constantly needed us for weather advice.  The more we talked the more his eyes lit up.  You could feel his sense of pure joy at having someone else to talk to who loved weather as much as him.  It was palpable.

We talked and talked and talked.  He though the midweek storm was going to pull back west a bit and I told him I thought it would stay suppressed to our southeast, both of us giving a nod to the fact that in the end we had no clue where it would end up haha.  Weather led to other talk.  "Oh, you studied Statistics at Penn State?  I always had a bit of trouble with that when I was at Wharton."  Turns out he was a Penn guy.  "Oh, you tutored Stat too?  I always had a penchant for teaching others."  On and on we went, both of us just standing there in the cold rain and with no intention of the conversation ending.  He told me of some neighborhood gossip as only Carl can and then ended by saying something to the effect of, "You know, weather is what it's all about.  There's nothing greater, nothing more powerful or unpredictable.  It has an effect on everything we do and affects our most important moments.  Everything from D-Day to sporting events to weddings and funerals.  Most importantly, it humbles us."  

Finally, he smiled before giving an obligatory nod and saying "alright then" as he waved and walked away.  His gate was that of an old man.  You know the type, wobbling back'n'forth, probably from one too many injuries over the years or a replaced hip or maybe just too many miles.  It was the type of gate that just keeps on going, until one day it doesn't.  I hope to see a lot more of Carl in the future, lord knows he'll be around, and around, and around.  Moral of the story is this:  talk to your neighbors, find yourself a Carl.  You'll be better for it.  I promise.  And who knows, you may just find someone else who enjoys this crazy hobby as much as you do.  It hit me yesterday that weather means a lot more than just tracking storms or being angry when we miss out; it's what binds all of us.  I'm glad I got to meet the real Carl, and I think he was too.

What an awesome story my friend. Sometimes the best moments in life are so close to us and yet so far away. And totally unpredictable. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

WARNING:  This will be a long post but given the mood of the board lately, I wanted to tell a little story that I hope you'll find as joyful and rewarding as I did experiencing it.

So, our neighborhood has an old guy who walks the neighborhood every day, many times a day, without fail.  He's the type of guy who knows everyone's kids, carries treats in his pockets for all the dogs, and gives his little two finger wave to everyone he sees.  His name is Carl and it's impossible to not, at the very least, know of him.  If there were a vote for neighborhood president Carl would win in a landslide.  We are relatively new to the development so I've only ever talked to Carl maybe 5-10 times and never really in-depth.

Well, yesterday I was out checking the mail in the cold rain and Carl comes walking by, because of course he does, that's what Carl does, no matter the weather.  I shout out to him, "Hey Carl, how about those winds coming?"  That simple comment led to Carl coming over and talking to me about the weather for a good 15-20 minutes.  Turns out he is a complete weather nut like us.  I had no idea.  He told me about all the old meteorologists and professors he loved to follow, most of whom I'd never heard of ha.  He had also been a big Bastardi guy for decades and was talking about how he just watched some video of him talking about the upcoming storm potential.  I quickly realized Carl was the real deal; he was one of us.  He went on and on about all the models by name and mentioned the SER, PNA, NAO, MJO, and any other weather acronym you could think of.  He knew them all.  We bonded over the fact that we both had rain gauges and weather stations and kept detailed records of our precipitation going back decades, his much longer than mine of course.  He talked about how our wives thought we were crazy but also how they constantly needed us for weather advice.  The more we talked the more his eyes lit up.  You could feel his sense of pure joy at having someone else to talk to who loved weather as much as him.  It was palpable.

We talked and talked and talked.  He thought the midweek storm was going to pull back west a bit and I told him I thought it would stay suppressed to our southeast, both of us giving a nod to the fact that in the end we had no clue where it would end up haha.  Weather led to other talk.  "Oh, you studied Statistics at Penn State?  I always had a bit of trouble with that when I was at Wharton."  Turns out he was a Penn guy.  "Oh, you tutored Stat too?  I always had a penchant for teaching others."  On and on we went, both of us just standing there in the cold rain and with no intention of the conversation ending.  He told me of some neighborhood gossip as only Carl can and then ended by saying something to the effect of, "You know, weather is what it's all about.  There's nothing greater, nothing more powerful or unpredictable.  It has an effect on everything we do and affects our most important moments.  Everything from D-Day to sporting events to weddings and funerals.  Most importantly, it humbles us."  

Finally, he smiled before giving an obligatory nod and saying "alright then" as he waved and walked away.  His gate was that of an old man.  You know the type, wobbling back'n'forth, probably from one too many injuries over the years or a replaced hip or maybe just too many miles.  It was the type of gate that just keeps on going, until one day it doesn't.  I hope to see a lot more of Carl in the future, lord knows he'll be around, and around, and around.  Moral of the story is this:  talk to your neighbors, find yourself a Carl.  You'll be better for it.  I promise.  And who knows, you may just find someone else who enjoys this crazy hobby as much as you do.  It hit me yesterday that weather means a lot more than just tracking storms or being angry when we miss out; it's what binds all of us.  I'm glad I got to meet the real Carl, and I think he was too.

Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here? 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here? 

Your thinking of Carl Jr. 

That's my stomach calling. Lunch time! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great story, are you sure Carl is not one of the older posters here? 

Wouldn't that be something haha.  But no, he didn't strike me as the type to have a message board account, but ya never know!

[Itstrainingtime]

Lots of winter cancels in the MA region. Bob Chill is roping them back in. He seems genuinely excited for early March. That's more than good enough for me to keep hopes alive. (and he was not excited about this week despite being in a more favored area than ours)  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wouldn't that be something haha.  But no, he didn't strike me as the type to have a message board account, but ya never know!

It seems when we get "busy" about 1/2 dozen people from Lanco pop up. 

 

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Your thinking of Carl Jr. 

That's my stomach calling. Lunch time! 

Hardees-Har-Har!

[Superstorm]

Lots of winter cancels in the MA region. Bob Chill is roping them back in. He seems genuinely excited for early March. That's more than good enough for me to keep hopes alive. (and he was not excited about this week despite being in a more favored area than ours)  

I have learned to only use models as trends. When that system started to trend the wrong direction (I think it started with the CMC), I started lose interest with each model run.


.

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

If she is going to stay tied to the EC, expect a second guess map soon (down)

[Festus]

Slow day so here's the list of most prolific regular posters in our forum.  Apologies if I missed anyone.  In thousands rounded to the nearest hundred:

1	Bubbler86	29.6
2	mitchnick	26.1
3	Canderson	23.3
4	Itstrainingtime	19.1
5	Sauss06	13.3
6	Voyager	12.0
7	Blizzard of 93	11.6
8	Paweather	11.4
9	Pasnownut	9.5
10	ChescoWx	8.9
11	MAG5035	5.9
12	WmsptWx	5.5
13	DDweatherman	5.2
14	Jns2183	4.7
15	mahantango#1	3.9
16	Mount Joy Snowman	3.8
17	Superstorm	3.8

[canderson]

Wind reports 

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider             

...Pennsylvania...

...Adams County...
Cashtown 1 S                 51 MPH    0700 AM 02/17   COOP                 

...Bedford County...
Bedford Airport              47 MPH    0515 AM 02/17   AWOS                 

...Blair County...
Altoona-Blair County Airport 59 MPH    0502 PM 02/16   AWOS                                  
Blair Helibase               48 MPH    0116 AM 02/17   RAWS                 

...Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport            58 MPH    0420 PM 02/16   ASOS                 
1 E Cresson                  50 MPH    1125 PM 02/16   PADOT                

...Centre County...
PSU Beaver Stadium WxSTEM    55 MPH    0620 PM 02/16   MESOWEST             
University Park Airport      49 MPH    1053 AM 02/17   AWOS                 
PSU Golf Course WxSTEM       47 MPH    0610 PM 02/16   MESOWEST             
1 NE Port Matilda            47 MPH    0625 PM 02/16   PADOT                
Zion                         45 MPH    0638 PM 02/16   CWOP                 

...Clearfield County...
Clearfield Airport           51 MPH    0559 PM 02/16   ASOS                 

...Clinton County...
Lock Haven Airport           45 MPH    0645 PM 02/16   AWOS                 
Coffin Rock                  45 MPH    1016 AM 02/17   RAWS                 

...Cumberland County...
6 SSE Bloserville            47 MPH    0725 AM 02/17   PADOT                

...Dauphin County...
ELIZABETHVILLE               63 MPH    0714 PM 02/16   CWOP                 
Harrisburg                   56 MPH    0400 PM 02/16   MESOWEST             
Harrisburg Intl Airport      53 MPH    0601 PM 02/16   ASOS                 
Hummelstown                  48 MPH    0706 PM 02/16   CWOP                 
Reach Cyber CharSch WxSTEM   45 MPH    0720 PM 02/16   MESOWEST             

...Franklin County...
1 NNW Marion                 49 MPH    0625 PM 02/16   PADOT                

...Fulton County...
2 S Crystal Springs          54 MPH    0945 PM 02/16   PADOT                

...Juniata County...
3 S Alfarata                 57 MPH    0650 PM 02/16   PADOT                

...Lancaster County...
Lancaster Airport            58 MPH    0740 PM 02/16   ASOS                 
Lititz                       58 MPH    0824 PM 02/16   ASOS                 
Manheim                      55 MPH    0745 PM 02/16   CWOP                 
1 E Rothsville               52 MPH    0641 PM 02/16   Public               
Elizabethtown                48 MPH    0836 PM 02/16   CWOP                 

...Lebanon County...
2 ENE Harper Tavern          58 MPH    0630 PM 02/16   Trained Spotter      
Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown 53 MPH    0917 AM 02/17   AWOS                 

...Lycoming County...
Williamsport Airport         55 MPH    0123 AM 02/17   ASOS                 

...McKean County...
Bradford Airport             53 MPH    0307 AM 02/17   ASOS                 

...Mifflin County...
Mifflin County Airport-RVL   64 MPH    0355 AM 02/17   AWOS                 
Lewistown                    53 MPH    0411 PM 02/16   Dept of Highways     
Chestnut Springs             46 MPH    0451 PM 02/16   RAWS                 

...Perry County...
Newport                      49 MPH    0651 PM 02/16   Dept of Highways     
2 ENE Newport                49 MPH    0725 PM 02/16   PADOT                

...Schuylkill County...
Joe Zerbey Airport           51 MPH    0735 PM 02/16   AWOS                 

...Snyder County...
Selinsgrove                  48 MPH    1047 PM 02/16   ASOS                 

...Somerset County...
Somerset                     52 MPH    0600 PM 02/16   CWOP                 
Ogletown                     52 MPH    0610 PM 02/16   PADOT                
Somerset Airport             48 MPH    0355 PM 02/16   AWOS                 

...Union County...
LEWISBURG                    46 MPH    0322 AM 02/17   CWOP                 

...York County...
Capitol City Airport         49 MPH    0916 AM 02/17   ASOS                 
York Airport                 47 MPH    0429 PM 02/16   ASOS                 
Dover                        47 MPH    0445 PM 02/16   CWOP                 

 

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/api/1/nwstext/202502171626-KCTP-NOUS41-PNSCTP?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0vbrPgWkpJG5GK2uIOJFO31NFIkc2vcUW04-sKcs8iPHkBd13opzchAkk_aem_AbnQOxQcr1ik8qO5sQLOpg

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Festus said:

Slow day so here's the list of most prolific regular posters in our forum.  Apologies if I missed anyone.  In thousands rounded to the nearest hundred:

1	Bubbler86	29.6
2	mitchnick	26.1
3	Canderson	23.3
4	Itstrainingtime	19.1
5	Sauss06	13.3
6	Voyager	12.0
7	Blizzard of 93	11.6
8	Paweather	11.4
9	Pasnownut	9.5
10	ChescoWx	8.9
11	MAG5035	5.9
12	WmsptWx	5.5
13	DDweatherman	5.2
14	Jns2183	4.7
15	mahantango#1	3.9
16	Mount Joy Snowman	3.8
17	Superstorm	3.8

There are posters in other regions of this forum that have eclipsed 100,000! 

Thanks for compiling this. I'm hoping that the top 4 seeds get a first round bye.