mahantango#1 Posted Monday at 12:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:34 PM Looks like a lot of disappointment today. How can some of these models that showed a lot of snow the last 2 weeks not verify? Are we expecting too much accuracy from these models 1 to 2 weeks out? I know it's only a tool but still... Well I guess it's time to move on to Spring which will be here in a few weeks. Looking forward to thunderstorms at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:37 PM I've been reading some comments that this was the worst model bust in history. Yeah...not even close: 12/26/2010: Models had much of the LSV getting anywhere from 6-18" of snow up to 6 hours prior to storm's onset. Final verdict: 0" 12/30/2000: Models had an incredible 1 to 3 FEET of snow literally leading into the storm's projected beginning. Final verdict: 0" There were many others including March 2001. At least the rug got pulled on this at the 96 hour mark or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 12:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:38 PM 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Looks like a lot of disappointment today. How can some of these models that showed a lot of snow the last 2 weeks not verify? Are we expecting too much accuracy from these models 1 to 2 weeks out? I know it's only a tool but still... Well I guess it's time to move on to Spring which will be here in a few weeks. Looking forward to thunderstorms at this point. See above. Models have improved greatly. There still only just that...models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:39 PM Despite the disappointment, the sun rise on my way in this morning was glorious. I ignored the bare ground, the relentless winds and focused on the fact that I got to cancel a meeting today. No need to plan for operations adjustment contingencies this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:40 PM 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: See above. Models have improved greatly. There still only just that...models. As far as I am concerned, this was/is just a normal tracking period of a potential storm. It was more comments from people vs. models that made this event seem a bit overblown. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:50 PM 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: As far as I am concerned, this was/is just a normal tracking period of a potential storm. It was more comments from people vs. models that made this event seem a bit overblown. Right. No bust at all - models lost the interaction and phase and that killed any hope for us. It happened 5 days before the supposed event - that’s the opposite of a bust. Now let’s hope we magically get 6” of was snow … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Monday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:52 PM 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: As far as I am concerned, this was/is just a normal tracking period of a potential storm. It was more comments from people vs. models that made this event seem a bit overblown. It was a letdown for sure. But we'll pick up the pieces of the broken models and put them back together and anxiously await another model run that shows copious amounts of snow for our region in the distant future. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:55 PM 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: It was a letdown for sure. But we'll pick up the pieces of the broken models and put them back together and anxiously await another model run that shows copious amounts of snow for our region in the distant future. There are opportunities in the MR plus it could still snow some this Thursday even with the current depicts....with the 500 pass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 PM In the end, its about the journey. Some get all bent out of shape ( yinz know who i mean) the models this, the models that. yadda yadda yadda. So focused on the negatives, you don't look at the positives..............Like the sunrise Mike spoke about. or the fact none of us had major wind damage last night (not that i have read anyhow) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:09 PM 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: In the end, its about the journey. Some get all bent out of shape ( yinz know who i mean) the models this, the models that. yadda yadda yadda. So focused on the negatives, you don't look at the positives..............Like the sunrise Mike spoke about. or the fact none of us had major wind damage last night (not that i have read anyhow) Amen Jon - thank you for that. And just for you, the very latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIczBAWYoRk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Monday at 01:22 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:22 PM 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Amen Jon - thank you for that. And just for you, the very latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIczBAWYoRk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:27 PM 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I got a taste and want to go back so much. It truly, truly is a beautiful place with so much to do, and a bad winter for them is 300". Too bad the price tag to buy is 6 grades above me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Monday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:29 PM 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Amen Jon - thank you for that. And just for you, the very latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIczBAWYoRk i will be watching this on my big screen later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:32 PM 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I got a taste and want to go back so much. It truly, truly is a beautiful place with so much to do, and a bad winter for them is 300". Too bad the price tag to buy is 6 grades above me. Yeah, I suppose it would be a cool vacation trip to see something like that in person. His videos are fascinating to watch! I just know that there's no way I could ever live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:44 PM Low of 27 with .37” of rain and lots of wind. This week is a big letdown for sure but as some others have mentioned it’s hard to call it a total bust when the models started honing in on the correct solution five days out — the very time period at which we are told to start paying real attention. I wish they were better from range too but they’re all we’ve got ha. Who knows, maybe the AI infusion will improve things. Glad to hear some westerners are getting in on the fun. Some of those streamers look great. Onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Always have to remember the PV always wins out! As many years as I have been doing this hobby I get sucked in to thinking nope we got a foot plus coming and then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:59 PM I am aware of the established guidelines for what constitutes a blizzard, but what is currently happening outside is a blizzard. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:06 PM 6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: I am aware of the established guidelines for what constitutes a blizzard, but what is currently happening outside is a blizzard. This is two decent snows events in the last 48ish hours (for parts of the forum.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:17 PM If the long range is right we are going to be starting March desperate desperate for many rainy days. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:18 PM 12Z Nam coming in with the SLP down near the gulf again (bad for waa) and the 540 line in NC...so not looking like much in improvements at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:21 PM It’s so f’n windy. And it’s not really dying off until tomorrow. They dropped the high wind warning for wind advisory it’s still blowing 45-50 continuously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 PM 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If the long range is right we are going to be starting March desperate desperate for many rainy days. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk What do you mean? Like we start off dry? What's remarkable to me, and probably the yearly surplus, is that last year 15 of the first 20 Sadderdays had rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM 13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If the long range is right we are going to be starting March desperate desperate for many rainy days. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Expect TCC to be back from the Pittsburgh forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Sizeable move north on the tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:48 PM What do you mean? Like we start off dry? What's remarkable to me, and probably the yearly surplus, is that last year 15 of the first 20 Sadderdays had rain. On pace for top 5 driest January/February combo since 1889Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:48 PM DCA back in the game on the Nam. Will make the rest of the 12Z a tiny bit more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: On pace for top 5 driest January/February combo since 1889 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I am not seeing that unless you are assuming no precip through the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:55 PM 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sizeable move north on the tug. Yep. When I saw your first post, I was shaking my head a bit. You recovered well. Bleeding stopped a bit?? I'm not gonna be around today. On road all day, so hoping nooners and HH has some norther ticks back in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:56 PM 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: DCA back in the game on the Nam. Will make the rest of the 12Z a tiny bit more interesting. QPF ticked a nice bit N as well. As I said above, hoping today is turnaround day. PV is legit, and not sure how much it can gain latitude, but let's hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 PM 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yep. When I saw your first post, I was shaking my head a bit. You recovered well. Bleeding stopped a bit?? I'm not gonna be around today. On road all day, so hoping nooners and HH has some norther ticks back in it. In fairness we were not near the WAA portion of the event which is the easy side. But if there is going to be a surprise, any potential pull would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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