pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:44 AM 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Boundary on the 0Z Nam is well south of 18z. Takes away some of the waa options even though it will still hit se pa on the curve. was just noticing that as well. Notable tick s and less ridging. Might still be ok, but was a step away from what we were hoping for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 AM 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: was just noticing that as well. Notable tick s and less ridging. Might still be ok, but was a step away from what we were hoping for. Yep. Too many reasons why this is not working when it is as easy as watching the 540 for WAA chances. People saying it is over on the MA. It is no different now than it was an hour ago. They will still watch the models every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 AM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. Too many reasons why this is not working when it is as easy as watching the 540 for WAA chances. People saying it is over on the MA. It is no different now than it was an hour ago. They will still watch the models every 6 hours. I think IMO the cold polar vortex took over and once that happened it didn’t lessen at all. I believe this is likely a S VA to NC event. Been through this many times I want to be wrong and might be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:53 AM I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:53 AM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. Too many reasons why this is not working when it is as easy as watching the 540 for WAA chances. I'm not lookin for any forks yet, mind you, but it's sure not making this one easy for us. Hoping tomorrow the NS tells us a little better tale as to backside action and how it interacts w/ SLP. IF we can get any stoppage of the souther stuff tonight, that'd be what I'd be watchin if I were staying up. I'm headed to bed. Gnight gang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:55 AM 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I think IMO the cold polar vortex took over and once that happened it didn’t lessen at all. I believe this is likely a S VA to NC event. Been through this many times I want to be wrong and might be. I hope the Icon has the boundary up just to see how people rationalize (not you or anyone here really.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:56 AM 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess. Not your first rodeo eh? I'm on the ITT train and think tomorrows the big day (if we can eek some sorta comeback out). Good news is that it wouldnt take much to get us back into somethin appreciable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:56 AM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm holding strong through 12z tomorrow. Then I'll reassess. Yep. Monday afternoon has always been my breaking point. Just need to see a little movement back towards us by then. If not, well, we’ll chalk it up as another in a long line of misses 5-7 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:57 AM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I hope the Icon has the boundary up just to see how people rationalize. I am hoping Blizz as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:59 AM I just don’t feel it, I’m hoping for reverse psychology. I so want it to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 03:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:00 AM Icon is slightly worse through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 03:05 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:05 AM PV down into the heartland of the country at 66 on the Icon. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 03:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:06 AM Winds have chilled out for the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:25 AM Top wind gust so far today at the Maytown Airport is 46mph. Top gust back on Thursday was 54mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:32 AM I’m punting the midweek storm. We lost the nam, the GFS might be a GA storm (it just started so guessing) and ICON does not even have a storm. With the upcoming warmup winter will be over in a lot of people’s minds. Once March starts spring fever hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:43 AM 8 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m punting the midweek storm. We lost the nam, the GFS is now an GA storm and ICON does not even have a storm. With the upcoming warmup winter will be over in a lot of people’s minds. Once March starts spring fever hits. Yeah been through so many times the PV takes control it doesn’t lose control. I am not punting yet but very likely a S VA NC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:43 AM 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I didn't see a lot of KU examples with this H5 progression...what seemed more common was messy multiple wave or disjointed storms like you just described. The quote of mine above was in a back and forth with @Ji and not to be taken literally lol. But I was and am arguing for the possibility this should be further north. March 2017 was somewhat similar to this in terms of the H5 track but would have been way more amplified for the reasons you stated. But what I didn't find were any examples of a h5 setup like this with a closed ULL back over the upper midwest tracking through PA that resulted in a big snowstorm 8"+ for Richmond or the Delmarva like guidance has been showing. I couldn't find a single example. I found a lot of messier storms further north and a few examples of a NC snowstorm from a SS wave that had no interaction with the NS but in those cases it ended up SOUTH of where guidance is now...I saw nothing that looked like this. But I guess there can always be a first. But I do feel like if this remains as amplified as it is now, it makes more sense for the wave in the TN valley to be more amplified and the gulf wave less given the upper levels. This would translate to a further north but not as amplified system into the mid atlantic IMO. The other option would be for this to keep trending south and match the analogs I found with a true southeast snowstorm under a displaced TPV sitting over the upper midwest. Feb 1980 fits that but it was mostly NC up to VA beach with not a lot of snow north of there. I guess the strength of the cold air mass pressing with that displaced TPV isn’t something to be overlooked either with a large area of more than -30ºF below average in a big portion of the Central US and Lower Ohio Valley. That probably could be an argument the other way that the boundary that southern stream wave runs on ends up being further south in a more progressive/unphased scenario. Really wish we could’ve been able to build the big western ridge to amp this setup. I still think the 500mb vort passage itself is going to generate a lighter snow event on it’s own, as there is likely to be some interaction.. even if it’s too late to draw in the coastal low. That does seem to have pretty solid model support across the board.. even with the more progressive and southeast solutions. That’s something where the finer details won’t be modeled well until it’s solidly into the range of the meso stuff. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted Monday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:44 AM 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m punting the midweek storm. We lost the nam, the GFS is now an GA storm and ICON does not even have a storm. With the upcoming warmup winter we lol be over in a lot of people’s minds. Once March starts spring fever hits. Daytona 500 is over, so spring is around the corner. 13 Days till Meteorological Spring. Bout done wishing for snow storms. Never comes together for big storms in my area anymore. Always N S E and W of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:06 AM Around here both KAOO and KJST have had 58mph peak wind gusts so far to go along with the 59.5mph peak gust I got here at home earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Monday at 08:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 08:03 AM The jet engine outside shaking my house successfully over took the sounds of my fan and air purifier to wake me and alert me to the fact that it is lightly snowing and a branch way down the street is hitting the power lines causing pretty blue arches as my power goes in and out. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Monday at 08:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 08:36 AM This wind is insane. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 08:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 08:42 AM In the middle of a heavy snowband currently. I’m not sure how much snow has fallen from these bands tonight but the amount of blowing and drifting on the roads around here has made this the most impactful event of the season IMO. This has easily been an advisory caliber event with near blizzard conditions at times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted Monday at 11:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:21 AM Well back after some time off, a couple deaths with people I knew and a severe cold laid me up. 25 degrees this morning. still windy…51 mph gust. Appears I didn’t really miss much. Just a lot of ice with sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Monday at 11:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:26 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:54 AM 32 minutes ago, pawatch said: Well back after some time off, a couple deaths with people I knew and a severe cold laid me up. 25 degrees this morning. still windy…51 mph gust. Appears I didn’t really miss much. Just a lot of ice with sleet. Sorry about the deaths and sickness. Tough combo. Only 18 this am down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:09 PM If this ends as it looks like now, indisputable winner is the AI that never had a real hit, only some scrapes in varying degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:17 PM 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If this ends as it looks like now, indisputable winner is the AI that never had a real hit, only some scrapes in varying degrees. BOTH Ai's on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Monday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:30 PM 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: BOTH Ai's on Pivotal. I look at the Euro. Is the Gfs graphcast also an AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:31 PM Yeah, the AI was worlds ahead of the rest though the GFS tried to participate with it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:33 PM 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I look at the Euro. Is the Gfs graphcast also an AI? It is indeed. It is based on Googles 'DeepMind'. I may have missed ond but when I checked, I did not see any Graphcasts predicts that showed sig snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now