DDweatherman Posted Monday at 01:18 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:18 AM Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Monday at 01:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:23 AM Blizz hacked MU’s account! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 01:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:26 AM 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Blizz hacked MU’s account! Its over. The last model run was bad. But if the next model run is good then it was never over until the next bad model run. Science, schmicience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 01:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:27 AM 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Blizz hacked MU’s account! He’s on team @psuhoffman & JB! PSU should be happy that he has another pro Met besides JB on his side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:28 AM 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He’s on team @psuhoffman & JB! PSU should be happy that he has another pro Met besides JB on his side. You ought to look at your home skills also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:31 AM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You ought to look at your home skills also. Not sure I’m following you here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 01:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:36 AM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not sure I’m following you here? When things started going south, there were comments here before some of the MA posters.... that have a lot of similarity. Not saying anyone copied vs. pointing out people on more than board are not just jumping from model to model. JB is not to the level of this board IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Monday at 01:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:36 AM Ok so it’s Blizz, MU, JB, Hoffman and the NAM against the Euro, GFS, Ruin, and all the AI models. Everyone pick a side! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Monday at 01:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:36 AM Skillets maybe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Monday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:39 AM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: When things started going south, there were comments here before some of the MA posters.... that have a lot of similarity. Not saying anyone copied vs. pointing out people on more than board are not just jumping from model to model. JB is not to the level of this board IMO. I know more on here have not give up yet, I was just pointing out @psuhoffman being concerned that he was on the same side as JB, but now he has MU too on his side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Monday at 01:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 AM 22 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Our entire Carroll valley borough is out right now. Kids staying at the grandparents Sorry to hear that, I hope it's back on soon. I wasn't saying there's not wind coming. I was just saying the highest winds were not here yet. I'm getting some heavier gust now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Monday at 01:45 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:45 AM I think the NAM goes even bigger at 0Z. Add to the drama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Monday at 01:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:46 AM I think the NAM goes even bigger at 0Z. Add to the drama. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:48 AM 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I know more on here have not give up yet, I was just pointing out @psuhoffman being concerned that he was on the same side as JB, but now he has MU too on his side! I had not seen the MU stuff but now that I have I might post it in the Mid Atl, its getting grim down there. I've never, EVER, seen a closed H5 and H7 track through Ohio and MD/PA and produce a big snowstorm that misses us to the south. EVER. Can't find a single example of that with a big snow for Richmond or Delmarva. Oddly if it were to trend even further south I can find some examples of NC and VA beach snows that missed Richmond... which makes sense, either there is a strong enough wave and in that case its coming up in this setup...or its a weak wave that escapes without any NS interaction but then its gonna get sqashed even further than current guidance. So imo this storm is either going further south than models have it currently...or coming north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:50 AM Out of power again just came back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Monday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 AM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I had not seen the MU stuff but now that I have I might post it in the Mid Atl, its getting grim down there. I've never, EVER, seen a closed H5 and H7 track through Ohio and MD/PA and produce a big snowstorm that misses us to the south. EVER. Can't find a single example of that with a big snow for Richmond or Delmarva. Oddly if it were to trend even further south I can find some examples of NC and VA beach snows that missed Richmond... which makes sense, either there is a strong enough wave and in that case its coming up in this setup...or its a weak wave that escapes without any NS interaction but then its gonna get sqashed even further than current guidance. So imo this storm is either going further south than models have it currently...or coming north. Thanks for posting up here. MU is excellent and typically conservative so to see him aggressive on this set-up and echoing your thoughts is interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:54 AM PPL outages starting to explode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Monday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:56 AM 1 minute ago, canderson said: PPL outages starting to explode Over 10000 customers without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:04 AM 11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Thanks for posting up here. MU is excellent and typically conservative so to see him aggressive on this set-up and echoing your thoughts is interesting. We can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:08 AM It’s pretty wild outside right now. Most of the roads around here have snow on them from the snow falling and/or blowing around and they all flash froze underneath that. Certainly seems like the biggest wind event of the winter in the early going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:09 AM 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Like I said last night, I see a problem of amplification. The true big KU events typically have an established anomalous western ridge. 3 of those 4 storms mentioned in that post have them, with the March 2017 example in particular being the classic western ridge axis positioning for a C-PA snowstorm. I dunno if Dec 2020 is a good overall comparison to the setup happening here. Anyways, as mentioned last night and by others here and there, the shortwave progged to come into the west coast Wednesday dampens the ridging that tries to pop up… that keeps the southern wave progressive and elongates the interaction with the closed northern branch 500mb feature. If I recall correctly, I think even JB mentioned that feature several days ago as something that could screw this up being a really big storm. He’s since been all in on this being big though. I just don’t see how this makes the full turn up the coast to be a full blown hammer for everyone. What I could see is the how the NAM handles the southern stream wave and what boundary that runs on. Theoretically one could think that jives better with progged positioning of the other mid level features I suppose. But it better start getting some other support. This is still going to have a swath of pretty significant snows with it, but I think the swath will end up confined much more than if this were able to fully phase in and blow up. That still seems to favor south of here at the moment. And again, the closed 500mb low is progged to pass right through PA. That at least should still suggest a likelihood of a lighter snow event in a sizeable portion of PA even if the heavier snows of the southern wave goes too far south and east for most in here. I didn't see a lot of KU examples with this H5 progression...what seemed more common was messy multiple wave or disjointed storms like you just described. The quote of mine above was in a back and forth with @Ji and not to be taken literally lol. But I was and am arguing for the possibility this should be further north. March 2017 was somewhat similar to this in terms of the H5 track but would have been way more amplified for the reasons you stated. But what I didn't find were any examples of a h5 setup like this with a closed ULL back over the upper midwest tracking through PA that resulted in a big snowstorm 8"+ for Richmond or the Delmarva like guidance has been showing. I couldn't find a single example. I found a lot of messier storms further north and a few examples of a NC snowstorm from a SS wave that had no interaction with the NS but in those cases it ended up SOUTH of where guidance is now...I saw nothing that looked like this. But I guess there can always be a first. But I do feel like if this remains as amplified as it is now, it makes more sense for the wave in the TN valley to be more amplified and the gulf wave less given the upper levels. This would translate to a further north but not as amplified system into the mid atlantic IMO. The other option would be for this to keep trending south and match the analogs I found with a true southeast snowstorm under a displaced TPV sitting over the upper midwest. Feb 1980 fits that but it was mostly NC up to VA beach with not a lot of snow north of there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:12 AM Or.... it could trend into an insignificant wave with no 8" plus snow anywhere...that also fits the analogs some where the TPV there squashed everything. But this in between stuff, I can't find any examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 02:13 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:13 AM 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I know more on here have not give up yet, I was just pointing out @psuhoffman being concerned that he was on the same side as JB, but now he has MU too on his side! Blizz, I have stood tall with you in this. I got invested over a week ago and haven't wavered. It's going to snow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:18 AM 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It’s pretty wild outside right now. Most of the roads around here have snow on them from the snow falling and/or blowing around and they all flash froze underneath that. Certainly seems like the biggest wind event of the winter in the early going. The blizzard ongoing west of Somerset must be absolutely wicked right now. Wish we had a poster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:28 AM 42 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I think the NAM goes even bigger at 0Z. Add to the drama. I've been quiet since the souther stuff started, because it didnt look or feel right when looking at 500's, so I've basically sat back to see if we get a more normal correction north (I suggested that late last week. Nam has the right idea, but w/ the globals further SE, it surely does feel like the "good ol' days". NAM could be off its rocker as well. Will be fun to see how this shakes out. IF its gonna correct, it would start rather soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 AM 14 minutes ago, canderson said: The blizzard ongoing west of Somerset must be absolutely wicked right now. Wish we had a poster there. I'm close enough. This shit is crazy. I'm worried my house is going to blow down and the snow is basically crystalizing and freezing on contact. I had to go out to the car a few minutes ago and the door was frozen shut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 AM If this does get squashed...one of the biggest issues I see compared to 36 hours ago is that the TPV lobe in the upper midwest is not breaking away as clean or quickly. That is flattening the flow ahead of it and not allowing it to act as the pinwheel in the flow that we need, as a normal cut off ULL would do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 AM Boundary on the 0Z Nam is well south of 18z. Takes away some of the WAA options even though it will still hit SE PA on the curve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 AM 21 minutes ago, canderson said: The blizzard ongoing west of Somerset must be absolutely wicked right now. Wish we had a poster there. Not a poster but here ya go pal…..looks to be getting wicked…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 AM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Boundary on the 0Z Nam is well south of 18z. We know the answer as to the result it’s too damn cold coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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