Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Jns2183]

Wind?
I'll be lucky to get a gust over 25 mph. I don't know if my stations anemometer is wrong/broken, or if it really is the fact that I'm boxed in by 400ft hills in close proximity to my house. 
 

You won't get wind outside a down burst. Sandy you even said barely made it breezy

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[mitchnick]

Too many threats and not enough scores. I feel like we've been in the red zone 8 or 9 times this winter with 1 TD and 2 FG's to show for it. Enough already. I can accept Spring and the normal sleep that comes with it. It really won't bother me if we're done for the year.

And I'll reiterate what I said at the beginning of January...we really want to be in the bullseye with the first legit storm of the season because the seasonal trend often shows itself with that storm. 

[Jns2183]

Mount Washington has dream weather next two days

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[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Too many threats and not enough scores. I feel like we've been in the red zone 8 or 9 times this winter with 1 TD and 2 FG's to show for it. Enough already. I can accept Spring and the normal sleep that comes with it. It really won't bother me if we're done for the year.

And I'll reiterate what I said at the beginning of January...we really want to be in the bullseye with the first legit storm of the season because the seasonal trend often shows itself with that storm. 

I don’t agree with this at all.

DC got more snow than us only 2 times this Winter.

We got more snow than them 1 time while they got rain.

This “it’s a southern” Winter is BS to me.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Too many threats and not enough scores. I feel like we've been in the red zone 8 or 9 times this winter with 1 TD and 2 FG's to show for it. Enough already. I can accept Spring and the normal sleep that comes with it. It really won't bother me if we're done for the year.

And I'll reiterate what I said at the beginning of January...we really want to be in the bullseye with the first legit storm of the season because the seasonal trend often shows itself with that storm. 

RE a typical winter.  

[canderson]

Sustained 43, gusts to 58 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I don’t agree with this at all.

DC got more snow than us only 2 times this Winter.

We got more snow than them 1 time while they got rain.

This “it’s a southern” Winter is BS to me.

I’ll be posting data soon to back this up.

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

You won't get wind outside a down burst. Sandy you even said barely made it breezy

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Yes. Sandy was quite benign in my immediate backyard.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I split my time between Cork and the new place, the High Dive. Most of my time isn't customer facing anymore. I come up with and make all the crazy infusions, fat washes, distillations, syrups, foams, and other things that we use for our cocktails. I basically have a whole chemistry lab in the basement of the high dive now. I love it. I also get to be home by 4-5 all but one day during the week and have weekends off. I also do most of the bar side financial analysis for the bar group that includes, the Millworks, watershed, cork, and high dive

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Good for you, that’s awesome. I remember you talking about High Dive, looks like a cool place. 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the latest from @psuhoffman :

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

Like I said last night, I see a problem of amplification. The true big KU events typically have an established anomalous western ridge. 3 of those 4 storms mentioned in that post have them, with the March 2017 example in particular being the classic western ridge axis positioning for a C-PA snowstorm. I dunno if Dec 2020 is a good overall comparison to the setup happening here.

Anyways, as mentioned last night and by others here and there, the shortwave progged to come into the west coast Wednesday dampens the ridging that tries to pop up… that keeps the southern wave progressive and elongates the interaction with the closed northern branch 500mb feature. If I recall correctly, I think even JB mentioned that feature several days ago as something that could screw this up being a really big storm. He’s since been all in on this being big though. I just don’t see how this makes the full turn up the coast to be a full blown hammer for everyone. What I could see is the how the NAM handles the southern stream wave and what boundary that runs on. Theoretically one could think that jives better with progged positioning of the other mid level features I suppose. But it better start getting some other support. This is still going to have a swath of pretty significant snows with it, but I think the swath will end up confined much more than if this were able to fully phase in and blow up. That still seems to favor south of here at the moment. And again, the closed 500mb low is progged to pass right through PA. That at least should still suggest a likelihood of a lighter snow event in a sizeable portion of PA even if the heavier snows of the southern wave goes too far south and east for most in here. 

[MAG5035]

And I had a gust on the weather station to 59.5mph while I was writing all that. 

[mahantango#1]

30 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Haha, who are these guys again

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ABC27

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll be posting data soon to back this up.

Where do you stand currently?

Family in Rehoboth is at 27.8" so far.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

ABC27

I thought the flooring guys were some third party gang of internet posters who got a radio station contract and  changed their forecast every 6 hours?    The flooring guys did not seem like professional met forecasts. 

[Jns2183]

ABC27

Although I give the NAM solution about a 10-15% chance right now, it would be even more hilarious now to watch abc27 come to acceptance of it if it did occur

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[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll be posting data soon to back this up.

Let me be honest. You don't have to spend the time finding any data because you're not going to change my mind. That's my opinion and I  didn't post it in any effort to change anyone else's. Why? Because there are more cities to our south than DC. I have 14.5" and Sby has more than me to name just 1. Maybe it's different where you live and that's why you have a different opinion. That's fine, but I  have no intent or desire to change your opinion on the winter. 

I've been wasting my time in life as a weenie since the winter of 72/73. As such, there comes a point in a disappointing winter as this one (<50% of average snowfall) when you say No Mas. I'm there. I'm numb. Great if it does snow and great if it doesn't. 

[paweather]

Lost power multiple times for a second comes back on. I’m ready for candles likely

[canderson]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Lost power multiple times for a second comes back on. I’m ready for candles likely

I told the wife we need to sleep with clothes on tonight (tmi? whatever) in case we have to get up in the middle of the night. It is wild out. 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Although I give the NAM solution about a 10-15% chance right now, it would be even more hilarious now to watch abc27 come to acceptance of it if it did occur

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JB said tonight the nam is in his corner.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Although I give the NAM solution about a 10-15% chance right now, it would be even more hilarious now to watch abc27 come to acceptance of it if it did occur

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It's over jns.  We do not need science follow models.  

[canderson]

18z Euro says we can go see snowflakes in Norfolk. 

[mahantango#1]

DT first guess map out after 11pm.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are where OFFICIAL reporting stations stand with seasonal snow numbers that will go into historical data records for this Winter season through today.

MDT - 15.5

BWI - 12.7

DCA -14.8

IAD - 15.5

RIC -7.7

SBY -17.8

ACY - 13.8

In summary, Salisbury, MD is the only OFFICIAL reporting station to our south in our general region that has more snow than MDT, by a whopping 2.3 more inches to date.

 

[Jns2183]

18z Euro says we can go see snowflakes in Norfolk. 

If, and that's a big if, the NAM is right, there is no reason to look at globals until Tuesday. Cause that's when they would cave.

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[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If, and that's a big if, the NAM is right, there is no reason to look at globals until Tuesday. Cause that's when they would cave.

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Some forecasters will not use globals within 72 hours. They are a blunt object vs the fine tuned meso's.  Does not mean any one model is right.

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If, and that's a big if, the NAM is right, there is no reason to look at globals until Tuesday. Cause that's when they would cave.

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I agree. The NAM was correct back in 2016 so its once-every-10-year scoop hasn’t lapsed yet though. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nothing super crazy out here yet, but we have had some decent gust that really got the rocket stove humming.  I. have burnt it trough many storms over the last 10 years, and I've never had a downdraft reverse it's flow @Jns2183 .

[DDweatherman]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Let me be honest. You don't have to spend the time finding any data because you're not going to change my mind. That's my opinion and I  didn't post it in any effort to change anyone else's. Why? Because there are more cities to our south than DC. I have 14.5" and Sby has more than me to name just 1. Maybe it's different where you live and that's why you have a different opinion. That's fine, but I  have no intent or desire to change your opinion on the winter. 

I've been wasting my time in life as a weenie since the winter of 72/73. As such, there comes a point in a disappointing winter as this one (<50% of average snowfall) when you say No Mas. I'm there. I'm numb. Great if it does snow and great if it doesn't. 

I’ve definitely been luckier than most, especially with a couple 2” events where your neck got basically 0. Sitting at 22”. But I agree with what you’re saying. 
 

I know this winter was supposed to suck ass. But we’ve had decent to good patterns and might end up with the elusive 3 BN months, and unless I find 4-4.5” (depending on your source), it’ll be a below climo year. We definitely got field goals on these storms minus the storm a few weeks ago where we got 7” and south busted. Could have been a 40” winter but some little bullshit (like the west coast wave busting the ridge on this one pissing in our cheerios) has been happening all season. 

[DDweatherman]

19 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Nothing super crazy out here yet, but we have had some decent gust that really got the rocket stove humming.  I. have burnt it trough many storms over the last 10 years, and I've never had a downdraft reverse it's flow @Jns2183 .

Our entire Carroll valley borough is out right now. Kids staying at the grandparents 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Where do you stand currently?

Family in Rehoboth is at 27.8" so far.

That’s great for them, especially with being a beach town.

I’m at 19” for the season.