Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I contend this region is the windiest in the country that isn’t a mountain peak or peninsula. It is much windier than Florida that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Oh how quickly we forget the great nam coups of 2010/2016. It not only was on an island of its own, but it was unflinchingly until others caved less than 48 hours out. I think the Euro waited until less than 24 hours out to cave for the one storm. Hence why I'm waiting till Tuesday evening to give my verdict. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Oh don’t I know it friend! I distinctly remember a number of events where the NAM led the way and we all pooh pooh’d it. Now, for every one of those there’s ten others where it’s off its rocker haha. But I’m not giving up either. There’s always a chance when 3+ days remain, no matter how small. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Oh don’t I know it friend! I distinctly remember a number of events where the NAM led the way and we all pooh pooh’d it. Now, for every one of those there’s ten others where it’s off its rocker haha. But I’m not giving up either. There’s always a chance when 3+ days remain, no matter how small. When it leads the way it tends to be unwavering and almost double downs. The minute it flinches, even for a run, I have much less faith. If it stays rock solid I'll happily take my chances regardless of other modelsSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: When it leads the way it tends to be unwavering and almost double downs. The minute it flinches, even for a run, I have much less faith. If it stays rock solid I'll happily take my chances regardless of other models Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk In this case nothing is leading the way, IMO. It is models having difficulty with gauging the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon 999 low just south of the VA Capes and little snow here. Right....Das Verruckt. Icon was actually a LOT more snow here (near M/D line over into Lanco) than 12Z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 In this case nothing is leading the way, IMO. It is models having difficulty with gauging the pattern. Well the energy doesn't eject out of the Rockies till tomorrow night/Tuesday Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Icon 999 low just south of the VA Capes and no snow here. Right....Das Verruckt Yes, but worlds improved from its 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Changed back to snow here awhile ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Power already went out once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Yes, but worlds improved from its 12Z run Thanks. I upped my post after first draft to show the major north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I find it interesting that the ICON decided to go due east here. Could be the suppressed flow up north, and if it is then we’ve seen that relax all the way up to go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Winds are here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks. I upped my post after first draft to show the major north shift. No worries. Appreciate the ICON analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks. I upped my post after first draft to show the major north shift. Philly had nothing on the 12z ICON & now has .25 QPF at 18z DC went from .13 to .40 at 18z Long way to go. 18z top 12z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM How much of the polar vortex does the NAM trap under the blocking H compared to the GFS?Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I find it interesting that the ICON decided to go due east here. Could be the suppressed flow up north, and if it is then we’ve seen that relax all the way up to go time. I think we needed this 100 miles farther East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I think we needed this 100 miles farther East. WOOF! That 500 look is insane. How does that not crush us!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: WOOF! That 500 look is insane. How does that not crush us!? I think it misses by a county or two but yes, this "kicker" is the key if we do not get a WAA bomb like the Nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:45 PM I think we needed this 100 miles farther East. That is further south and east than NAM 500MB Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM 6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That is further south and east than NAM 500MB Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk On my maps it is farther South but not as much East. Nam is in Ohio and that is centered to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:49 PM O my maps it is farther South but not as much East. Nam is in Ohio and that is centered to the west. That might be the closest I have ever seen it and not be capturedSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Hour 42 of GFS small changes at 500. I think the changes are a bit better but also guessing and wishcasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Just now, Jns2183 said: That might be the closest I have ever seen it and not be captured Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That might be the closest I have ever seen it and not be captured Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Just now, GrandmasterB said: 100% agree It has feelings and does not like being called a kicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:54 PM The GFS ejects the energy from the Rockies further south. Until that election is 100% we won't really know. That's in 48 hours Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM The low pressure jumps way south to the Gulf and follows the thunderstorm complex east of Jacksonville Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Temps were supposed to get to 50 here today. They only made it to 41 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:02 PM 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Temps were supposed to get to 50 here today. They only made it to 41 here. cant even get the next days weather right lol smh yeah they said 55 for me here I got to 40 and that was it down to 36 all rdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:11 PM 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: cant even get the next days weather right lol smh yeah they said 55 for me here I got to 40 and that was it down to 36 all rdy Today was an incredible bust - finishing between 15 and 20 degrees below forecast and I think @Bubbler86said one model had me at 67 which is 24 degrees above actual high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:15 PM 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Today was an incredible bust - finishing between 15 and 20 degrees below forecast and I think @Bubbler86said one model had me at 67 which is 24 degrees above actual high. I remember the Rgem or HRRR 24 hours ago had you in the mid to upper 60's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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