Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM I have to chuckle just a bit over the timing of the high wind warning. It began two hours ago at noon, and as I look out my window there is absolutely no movement, ie the winds are calm. My pressure has dropped to 992 millibars, or 29.10". It looks like the descent is slowing down. For the winds, many reporting stations to the norrth and west still have either calm or less than 5 mph, at all stations in central PA. I unfortunately think the worst won't even start hitting till it's dark outsideSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Why should they be better? Unless we are funding a gigantic swarm of millions upon millions of tiny, self contained, self propelled sensors that can be directed at will to areas of our atmosphere I doubt models will become anywhere like you expect them to be. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I agree, I am not sure why he keeps saying the same thing over and over...and this time he is talking about ensembles which are NOT forecasts vs. means. Does not "mean" they cannot be way off as to individual members but the mean maps are never forecasts. Using a mean map to assume results is like counting weights of 100 people walking into a building then "forecasting" that the next person will be a mean of them all. In many cases these are also members purposely fed false info to see how it would affect the end result. Their entire goal in life is to cross check the op's. If the mean is way off from the op's (upper air stuff, not snow maps) then that places the op's depict into question. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM I have to chuckle just a bit over the timing of the high wind warning. It began two hours ago at noon, and as I look out my window there is absolutely no movement, ie the winds are calm. My pressure has dropped to 992 millibars, or 29.10". It looks like the descent is slowing down. For the winds, many reporting stations to the norrth and west still have either calm or less than 5 mph, at all stations in central PA. Here she comesSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:22 PM 11 minutes ago, Ruin said: my argument is they should be better shouldnt they? we have had the same problems with them being inaccurate and it feels as if they are not getting better. yes 1 model can catch onto a trend and be good for 3-4 -5 storms and its slightly more accurate then it shits the bed. yes with out models we would be worse off. but i think its funny how I dont attack any one on this forum and my argument is with the tech they use for weather being bad but then some on this forum just love to throw personal attacks. Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons. Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms. Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:26 PM I agree, I am not sure why he keeps saying the same thing over and over...and this time he is talking about ensembles which are NOT forecasts vs. means. Does not "mean" they cannot be way off as to individual members but the mean maps are never forecasts. Using a mean map to assume results is like counting weights of 100 people walking into a building then "forecasting" that the next person will be a mean of them all. In many cases these are also members purposely fed false info to see how it would affect the end result. Their entire goal in life is to cross check the op's. If the mean is way off from the op's (upper air stuff, not snow maps) then that places the op's depict into question. I am logged in. Less than 1/4mi visibility and getting worse. You might be hearing some thunder soon. The convection looks like it'll be able to tap into that strong LLJ and start jet engines in the trees roaring all night Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Heavy rain here now and the wind is really starting to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:29 PM 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I have to chuckle just a bit over the timing of the high wind warning. It began two hours ago at noon, and as I look out my window there is absolutely no movement, ie the winds are calm. My pressure has dropped to 992 millibars, or 29.10". It looks like the descent is slowing down. For the winds, many reporting stations to the norrth and west still have either calm or less than 5 mph, at all stations in central PA. Doing regionwide warnings has always bothered me when it comes to front passages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I am logged in. Less than 1/4mi visibility and getting worse. You might be hearing some thunder soon. The convection looks like it'll be able to tap into that strong LLJ and start jet engines in the trees roaring all night Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Yea, entering Franklin County right now. Like Carlisle said, the high win warning has been a nothing so far so this may kick it into gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons. Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms. Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby. Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily. Now? It's 37! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:33 PM I looked at the GFS and it is snowing in the north corner of SC on Wed. Without a capture we are too far North for that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily. Now? It's 37! We only managed a 52 bagger over here and it is down to 43 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily. Now? It's 37!Inversion on steroids. It's why it's dead calm until the line hitsSent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We only managed a 52 bagger over here and it is down to 43 now. 37.0 right now, which is also the daily high...so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:40 PM So much for the 60s some models were showing for todaySent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM 37 has been my high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: So much for the 60s some models were showing for today Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk One model had ITT getting to 67. Another one 65. Calling Ruin to fix this. We actually would have preferred that for our snow chance later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:48 PM One model had ITT getting to 67. Another one 65. Calling Ruin to fix this. We actually would have preferred that for our snow chance later this week. Lightning pretty close to you Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:51 PM 37° here in Lebanon and fog. Temp likely will spike some when the front and line comes through but I doubt it spike into the 50s around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM One model had ITT getting to 67. Another one 65. Calling Ruin to fix this. We actually would have preferred that for our snow chance later this week. On top of youSent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Very, very strange temperature phenomena ongoing here. At noon my reading was up to 43 and climbing steadily. Now? It's 37! I was actually just about to post how there isn’t any temp spike happening today and things are actually going in reverse. Some serious WAA fog on the advance, getting thick over here. Once that mixes out I assume we’ll spike a bit but nothing like what was projected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: On top of you Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk Yes, it is lightning with moderate thunder. Rain ++ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:53 PM 44 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I have to chuckle just a bit over the timing of the high wind warning. It began two hours ago at noon, and as I look out my window there is absolutely no movement, ie the winds are calm. My pressure has dropped to 992 millibars, or 29.10". It looks like the descent is slowing down. For the winds, many reporting stations to the norrth and west still have either calm or less than 5 mph, at all stations in central PA. Yeah, mine says 51mpg gust. I think they can remove the 1. Nothinburger....so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Sunday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:56 PM Yeah, mine says 51mpg gust. I think they can remove the 1. Nothinburger....so far. I think khgr almost hit 40 in last few minutes Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:58 PM 37 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Of course the models “should” be better but they’re not, for a whole host of reasons. Not the least of which is that it’s really F’ing hard to predict something that operates on as grand of a scale as the Earth’s atmosphere and translate that down to the local level. What we think of as vast distances just aren’t in the grand scheme of things and the resolutions and data ingestion of the models just isn’t granular enough to produce better results. With that said, they are still correct the vast majority of the time and it’s foolish to say they aren’t far better than they were many years ago. The main issue with you is that your penchant for negativity gets unduly rewarded in a field like this, simply because there are always FAR more ways to fail than to win with these big storms. Don’t mistake your wins for some great insight; you’re just a glass half empty guy and that’s an easy role to find fulfilling in this hobby. I've said it before, we've become a "point n click" society and peeps think everything they see on there PC's or phones is instant and 100 accurate. Weather has proven countless times to alway hold the cards. That should be the fun in it, and not the distain...we'll thats how I think most of us feel. We just know better. Hoping for the comeback runs in the next day or so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:02 PM 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, mine says 51mpg gust. I think they can remove the 1. Nothinburger....so far. It doesn’t hit until the front passes and the H out in re Midwest sinks. There will be a 60-70knt 850m jet that will get pushed down with the tight gradient what high is pushing our way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:03 PM Nam through 27 is close enough to not merit any major changes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted Sunday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:04 PM Wind has started here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:05 PM It’s raining here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:08 PM wild ride here. heavy rain, hail, lightning, blowing fog, tree limbs down on the road, all with snow still on the ground 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Lots of 50-60mph winds now in western and central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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