mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon and Rgem are bad this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We might not be a snowtown but we do ice like no other haha. Still around freezing. This is my parents place a few miles up the road in Bellwood 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Temperatures in the higher spots failed to get above freezing till around 7am this morning. Our 13th winter event of the season resulted in as much as 2" of snow in spots and as much as 0.15" of freezing rain ice accretion. Melted snow and rain amounts so far have ranged from 0.77" at Kennett Square to 0.58" at Atglen. We could see another 0.25" to 0.50" with both a warm front this morning and then a sharp cold front this afternoon. We should see a sharp rise in temperatures this morning into early PM - possibly reaching the 50's before the front crosses the western burbs during around the 230p to 330p hour. We continue to lessen any drought concerns across the area and another 0.25" to 0.50" of rain should fall today. The big story and danger today into tomorrow will be the strong winds that may very well cause widespread power outages. Unfortunately, following the front we will not see above freezing temperatures for the entire work week. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: We might not be a snowtown but we do ice like no other haha. Still around freezing. This is my parents place a few miles up the road in Bellwood I hope it melts before the winds arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @CarlislePaWx left my house and it was 51. By the time I got about 10 miles to the east in the eastern foothills of the South mountain range now in Adams county it was 33 with an ice storm in progress with all elevated surfaces iced over....a couple hundred feet below my elevation back west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @CarlislePaWx left my house and it was 51. By the time I got about 10 miles to the east in the eastern foothills of the South mountain range now in Adams county it was 33 with an ice storm in progress with all elevated surfaces iced over....a couple hundred feet below my elevation back west. Its a mess here that inch of snow yesterday then the rain the ground was starting to get above freezing then it froze overnight now its melting from the top down but ground is still below freezing. Making for a slushy mess thats adhering to the ground with water standing on top. Hope it melts before tonight or it will freeze to a thin layer of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 From JB: he American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 15m Models have shifted southeast since this, but I think should shift back west. This was eye candy, but the threat of the coastal MA blizzard we outlined Feb 11 still very much alive and kicking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 From JB: he American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 15m Models have shifted southeast since this, but I think should shift back west. This was eye candy, but the threat of the coastal MA blizzard we outlined Feb 11 still very much alive and kicking. I think Tuesday evening will be the come back or die line. Also what are the best websites to track the wind onslaught Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: I think Tuesday evening will be the come back or die line. Also what are the best websites to track the wind onslaught Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk I use Windy https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,40.647,-77.028,10,m:eMRad03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think Tuesday evening will be the come back or die line. Also what are the best websites to track the wind onslaught Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Windy Is Monday morning looking like worst case for rush hour?Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Jns2183 said: Is Monday morning looking like worst case for rush hour? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk It will suck the moment the front passes until Monday early afternoon. Then still suck but probably be not constant 55 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 27 minutes ago, canderson said: It will suck the moment the front passes until Monday early afternoon. Then still suck but probably be not constant 55 mph winds. How I hate wind...personally and meteorologically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Any bets on which way the Euro goes? Nam or everything else? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12z GFS is virtually nothing for all of PA - maybe 1.5” in border areas of York/Lancaster We seem to be essentially now hoping we can get some WAA snow out of the system - there is zero interaction so no chance of a phase. It also torches toward the end of the run. Gets near 80 in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro looks like the others and not the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro gets my family in Rehoboth past the 40" mark for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's eeriely dead calm hereSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 looks like a bunt for next week at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro gets my family in Rehoboth past the 40" mark for the season. Roanoke gets smoked. I’ll give it until after 12z tomorrow to punt entirely but since every storm this year has deamped I’m expecting a partly cloud, bitterly cold Wednesday and Thursday. Then a warm up begins as winter seems to be quickly winding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 46 minutes ago, canderson said: 12z GFS is virtually nothing for all of PA - maybe 1.5” in border areas of York/Lancaster We seem to be essentially now hoping we can get some WAA snow out of the system - there is zero interaction so no chance of a phase. It also torches toward the end of the run. Gets near 80 in the LSV. I’m ready for it at this point! Let’s get some boomers in there as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lets not forget, the GFS and Euro Ensembles 7-10 days ago were run-after-run showing an onslaught of snowstorms and a widespread 25”-40” of snow cover throughout the entire area from last weekend through next weekend. If this week is a dud, it would be an incredible bust on multiple ensemble systems for February. For me in Lebanon, I am at about 3” of snow since February 7th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Lets not forget, the GFS and Euro Ensembles 7-10 days ago were run-after-run showing an onslaught of snowstorms and a widespread 25”-40” of snow cover throughout the entire area from last weekend through next weekend. If this week is a dud, it would be an incredible bust on multiple ensemble systems for February. For me in Lebanon, I am at about 3” of snow since February 7th . and I said all would either miss or be almost a nothing burger compared to what the models showed. Hate to say I told you so but I told you so. swing batter batter swing batter a swing and a miss. people need too just learn the truth models suck nothing they show 5 7 10 days out happen for 90% of the time. people grasp onto the chase hoping they can look back and say they were right. yes the chase is fun but it often doesnt amount to anything. if we had better models. I know I know you all want me to post prof models suck well isnt the last few storms prof enough? how about some one look up a website where it says the accuracy of each models cause I cant find it. but id guess at the best case they are 20-30% accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA · I believe I mentioned a couple days ago that Tuesday evening was the model time to watch. He is right in that many times storms have come back once we have better sampling with the intensity and timing of the parts. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 and I said all would either miss or be almost a nothing burger compared to what the models showed. Hate to say I told you so but I told you so. swing batter batter swing batter a swing and a miss. people need too just learn the truth models suck nothing they show 5 7 10 days out happen for 90% of the time. people grasp onto the chase hoping they can look back and say they were right. yes the chase is fun but it often doesnt amount to anything. if we had better models. I know I know you all want me to post prof models suck well isnt the last few storms prof enough? how about some one look up a website where it says the accuracy of each models cause I cant find it. but id guess at the best case they are 20-30% accurate Then don't pay attention to them or anyone who does. The reason people still use models is because not using them is worse. You seem to not only want a reality that doesn't exist, but feel you are entitled to it existing and therefore get angry it doesn't. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Then don't pay attention to them or anyone who does. The reason people still use models is because not using them is worse. You seem to not only want a reality that doesn't exist, but feel you are entitled to it existing and therefore get angry it doesn't. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk my argument is they should be better shouldnt they? we have had the same problems with them being inaccurate and it feels as if they are not getting better. yes 1 model can catch onto a trend and be good for 3-4 -5 storms and its slightly more accurate then it shits the bed. yes with out models we would be worse off. but i think its funny how I dont attack any one on this forum and my argument is with the tech they use for weather being bad but then some on this forum just love to throw personal attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I have to chuckle just a bit over the timing of the high wind warning. It began two hours ago at noon, and as I look out my window there is absolutely no movement, ie the winds are calm. My pressure has dropped to 992 millibars, or 29.10". It looks like the descent is slowing down. For the winds, many reporting stations to the norrth and west still have either calm or less than 5 mph, at all stations in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 my argument is they should be better shouldnt they? we have had the same problems with them being inaccurate and it feels as if they are not getting better. yes 1 model can catch onto a trend and be good for 3-4 -5 storms and its slightly more accurate then it shits the bed. yes with out models we would be worse off. but i think its funny how I dont attack any one on this forum and my argument is with the tech they use for weather being bad but then some on this forum just love to throw personal attacks. Why should they be better? Unless we are funding a gigantic swarm of millions upon millions of tiny, self contained, self propelled sensors that can be directed at will to areas of our atmosphere I doubt models will become anywhere like you expect them to be. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now