Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I wouldn’t put you in the Deb group Oh I’m not but I take pride in being realistic vs. a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 yes but its what forecasts go by and what every one posts. Im just point out cant they do a better job with it? does any one know here how accurate any of the models are? do they have a tracking website where it shows hits or missing with what they showed what would happen vs what did?They do, you need to familiarize yourself with this beforehand thoughhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/NGGPS%2520verification%2520and%2520validation%2520plan%252005122016.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi6_bXlkceLAxV0SjABHXWrLrUQFnoECCwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0p2qDyH5kvJTBtJZi_XkB6Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: yes but its what forecasts go by and what every one posts. Im just point out cant they do a better job with it? does any one know here how accurate any of the models are? do they have a tracking website where it shows hits or missing with what they showed what would happen vs what did? One thing to keep in mind - very small changes can have significant implications in results. Models simply can't hash everything out perfectly days in advance. But I'll bet the final verdict will be close to what we see now as far as the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Some modest changes on the 0z NAM so far through hour 72. More ejection in the Rockies, slightly better height rises in the TN Valley with more southwesterly flow at 500mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Cant hate this hour 84 on the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 CTP all in on a major wind storm After the cold front moves through, there is very high confidence in a 24-30 hour period of quite strong/gusty west to west-northwest winds sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts of 45-60+ mph from Sunday afternoon through Monday. BUFKIT soundings support mixing to at least 850mb Sunday evening through Monday, tapping into a strong 60kt jet. A period of very strong gusts immediately behind the front will be followed by a prolonged stretch of gusty winds that will continue Sunday night and into Monday afternoon. Have issued a High Wind Watch for all but Warren County, where the risk for 50kt gusts is high enough to warrant a Watch. A Wind Advisory (40+ kt gusts) is a sure bet for the entire region, but High Wind Warnings will likely be needed for a portion of Central PA Sunday evening into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Cant hate this hour 84 on the NAM . 540 in VA is a lot better for us than the depicts with it in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I like the look of the NAM at 84. Probably not worth a lot but notable nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I like the look of the NAM at 84. Probably not worth a lot but notable nonetheless. Like psu posted on the ma and the 540 comment here, the boundary is farther north which will lead to a much better starting position for a coastal along with waa snows. Still not my beloved Miller a though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'd take my chances with that look. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lost the Icon. Little or no snow in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0z ICON is wide right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Like psu posted on the ma and the 540 comment here, the boundary is farther north which will lead to a much better starting position for a coastal along with waa snows. Still not my beloved Miller a though.No blocking, no big jet dipSent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I have said this is a MA winter I’m tired of it now but it’s reality 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The truly wild swings is what is so laughable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Jns2183 said: No blocking, no big jet dip Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk We need something to pull if the confluence and 540 line is going to be so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Lost the Icon. Little or no snow in PA. I may need to take a break if the rest of the 00z guidance looks like this. They'll be places in southern MD pushing 40" and 200% of climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I was just over at the MA myself. Looks like Ruin is drawing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, paweather said: I have said this is a MA winter I’m tired of it now but it’s reality I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone! You must have slept for 6 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby. Time change is in 2 weeks. That kills model watching for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone! You didn’t sleep my point is the jackpot area is further south and has been this winter. Sorry didn’t clarify my comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby. I must have actually slept until April 1st… Happy April Fools Day everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I must have slept for 5 days… Happy Friday everyone!Come on man, you can’t be confident after these recent runs…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I must have actually slept until April 1st… Happy April Fools Day everyone! Please stop…the joke is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I must have actually slept until April 1st… Happy April Fools Day everyone! I said after next week because all the ensembles have Pacific warm moving eastward across the country by 3/1 and it's warm. That leaves less than a week between the end of next week and 3/1. But I did keep the door open for a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I said after next week because all the ensembles have Pacific warm moving eastward across the country by 3/1 and it's warm. That leaves less than a week between the end of next week and 3/1. But I did keep the door open for a fluke. Damn Groundhog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I haven’t heard anything about the GFS. Can’t be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, paweather said: I haven’t heard anything about the GFS. Can’t be good. It's terrible. Worse than the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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