Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful. It's far from over. Another example of my disdain for snow maps. Elliott has been saying the last few days that the most likely outcome for us is a light to moderate event. Doesn't mean he'll be right but the setup has been loaded with potential but also very precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The set up is there for a classic memorable storm if the players come together just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's far from over. Another example of my disdain for snow maps. Elliott has been saying the last few days that the most likely outcome for us is a light to moderate event. Doesn't mean he'll be right but the setup has been loaded with potential but also very precarious. More importantly, shorts tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Bubbler86 said: More importantly, shorts tomorrow? They're on today. I'd say likely again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The set up is there for a classic memorable storm if the players come together just right. It really is. But we need a lot to go just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: They're on today. I'd say likely again tomorrow. I meant for "others". Looking for advice! LOL. The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: I wasn’t expecting this but my temp has been dropping and is back down to 32. My temp hasn't risen or dropped since 3:30. Steady as she goes at 32.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I meant for "others". Looking for advice! LOL. The Icon does not even break me out of the 40's while some other progs are 60's. In the words of Nike: "Just do it!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: It really is. But we need a lot to go just right. We always do… Most our memorable storms have had doubts & off runs of models mixed in just a couple of days out from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: In the words of Nike: "Just do it!" Is that the same Nike Nico Harrison used to work for? I think Pelinka might have said that same phrase to Nico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We always do… Most our memorable storms have had doubts & off runs of models mixed in just a couple of days out from the event. True that. We are in an overall pattern that favors eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: When will the progression SE end? Will it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: When will the progression SE end? Will it end? When the TPV/High decides to allow it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So frustrating…it’s like the same trend every storm this year. We can’t win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: When will the progression SE end? Will it end? 12z tomorrow we make a comeback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z tomorrow we make a comeback The winds are going to blow in some good model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: When will the progression SE end? Will it end? Probably tonight or tomorrow morning. I don't mind losing the storm now . I willing to bet it will come back north . If we lose it two to three days out I'd feel different. Personally this feels pretty normal to me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This is great info from @psuhoffman : The high is to the NW not N or NE of the system which is less suppressive. If you're referring to my comments about the analogs typically being a NW storm...I pointed out those setups didn't have the cold and high pressure to the extreme we have so it changes things. But those setups all ended up NW of progged at 100 hours. The true arctic boundary is through DC leading into the event. Yes there is cold well to our south but its not deep cold...the cold boundary down in the TN valley is shallower cold. We've got major snows well up into our area that started with a boundary there. But the key is for the wave associated with the arctic front to be the one that activates and amplifies NOT the one along the coastal front. That does not mean a cutter...the storm type I am thinking here with a somewhat similar h5 progression (DOES NOT MEAN THIS STORM GETS TO THE LEVEL OF THESE) is 1996, Feb 2006, March 2017. March 2017 is the best example of a TPV split where the storm rides up in between with a very similar H5 track of the upper low. What screwed us in that storm was the arctic boundary wave to our west amplified too much and held on way too long. I am NOT saying that should happen...but that the wave on that boundary should be the one with more focus not down over the SE so far disconnected from all the energy. Feb 2006 we had boudary issues but the 850 line was way down further south than it is here. That storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Find me a good example of that. If the H5 looked like this...March 1980... I would be really worried. Some other storms that Jacked SE of DC, and all of these at least got 6" into the DC Baltimore area but the Jack was SE of 95...but look at the H5 and how suppressive it is or how far south in some cases a cut off Now look at the H5 even on the GFS for our system and this is the most hostile h5 look of all the runs today...but one of these h5 does not look like all the others! Ive been looking at SE misses, you know how I obsess over every thing that can go wrong, and I don't see any that look like this at H5. That doesn't mean I think a NW miss is likely...I think the colder regime here offsets a H5 look that without a crazy 1050 high WOULD be an issue for a possible NW track. I could also see a SE miss if we had a really weak system. That isnt suppression its just a weak system not amplifying enough to gain latitude. I would be more worried about runs that don't show much snow anywhere and a 3-6" snow missing to our SE. That is very believable. But a storm amplified enough to cause a 12" snow somewhere with the H5 low that far to the NW and a flow that is not at all suppressive just sliding ENE and OTS, well its not the profile of our SE misses with 12" snows just to our SE. That said...I guess there is a first time for everything... or maybe the models end up right but for the wrong reason and the wave trends to a disconnected weak POS and there is no 10" plus snows anywhere! That would be a more typical way to miss in this h5 setup. But I don't see a scenario where MO gets 16" of snow and a wave is approaching us from the TN/OH valley with that h5 look and suddenly it gets suppressed to our south. That doesn't add up to me. I am not trying to be confrontational...I am always open to learning and I am wrong plenty so I am willing for anyone to show me where I am wrong here...I just don't see any comps to this. What I do see when I tried to find similar setups with a splitting TPV under a west based block where the western lobe splits and cuts off over the upper midwest are mostly storms that ended up if anything more amplified than we want, not less. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 When do you ever want to be in the jackpot on Days 4-5? Lets give it another 48 hours before we give up. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m really ok where euro has storm.I was a little worried when I saw that super ticked Ukie.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z tomorrow we make a comeback Pure speculation and wishcasting at its finest. Please stop and live in the moment and seasonal trends. It doesn’t look good right now with today’s trends. Maybe light/moderate event sure. Hope I’m wrong, but wishcasting does no one any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is great info from @psuhoffman : The high is to the NW not N or NE of the system which is less suppressive. If you're referring to my comments about the analogs typically being a NW storm...I pointed out those setups didn't have the cold and high pressure to the extreme we have so it changes things. But those setups all ended up NW of progged at 100 hours. The true arctic boundary is through DC leading into the event. Yes there is cold well to our south but its not deep cold...the cold boundary down in the TN valley is shallower cold. We've got major snows well up into our area that started with a boundary there. But the key is for the wave associated with the arctic front to be the one that activates and amplifies NOT the one along the coastal front. That does not mean a cutter...the storm type I am thinking here with a somewhat similar h5 progression (DOES NOT MEAN THIS STORM GETS TO THE LEVEL OF THESE) is 1996, Feb 2006, March 2017. March 2017 is the best example of a TPV split where the storm rides up in between with a very similar H5 track of the upper low. What screwed us in that storm was the arctic boundary wave to our west amplified too much and held on way too long. I am NOT saying that should happen...but that the wave on that boundary should be the one with more focus not down over the SE so far disconnected from all the energy. Feb 2006 we had boudary issues but the 850 line was way down further south than it is here. That storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Find me a good example of that. If the H5 looked like this...March 1980... I would be really worried. Some other storms that Jacked SE of DC, and all of these at least got 6" into the DC Baltimore area but the Jack was SE of 95...but look at the H5 and how suppressive it is or how far south in some cases a cut off Now look at the H5 even on the GFS for our system and this is the most hostile h5 look of all the runs today...but one of these h5 does not look like all the others! Ive been looking at SE misses, you know how I obsess over every thing that can go wrong, and I don't see any that look like this at H5. That doesn't mean I think a NW miss is likely...I think the colder regime here offsets a H5 look that without a crazy 1050 high WOULD be an issue for a possible NW track. I could also see a SE miss if we had a really weak system. That isnt suppression its just a weak system not amplifying enough to gain latitude. I would be more worried about runs that don't show much snow anywhere and a 3-6" snow missing to our SE. That is very believable. But a storm amplified enough to cause a 12" snow somewhere with the H5 low that far to the NW and a flow that is not at all suppressive just sliding ENE and OTS, well its not the profile of our SE misses with 12" snows just to our SE. That said...I guess there is a first time for everything... or maybe the models end up right but for the wrong reason and the wave trends to a disconnected weak POS and there is no 10" plus snows anywhere! That would be a more typical way to miss in this h5 setup. But I don't see a scenario where MO gets 16" of snow and a wave is approaching us from the TN/OH valley with that h5 look and suddenly it gets suppressed to our south. That doesn't add up to me. I am not trying to be confrontational...I am always open to learning and I am wrong plenty so I am willing for anyone to show me where I am wrong here...I just don't see any comps to this. What I do see when I tried to find similar setups with a splitting TPV under a west based block where the western lobe splits and cuts off over the upper midwest are mostly storms that ended up if anything more amplified than we want, not less. I personally agree with this assertion in why the GFS should have shown more precip back over and into the 500 low. And his other points are valid but that is not what the GFS did so there has to be a reason the shuttered the entire southern complex well into the ocean. I fear it was the influence from a stronger higher to the NW combined with a lagging NS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The winds are going to blow in some good model runs. And some Scripture . I'll be working hard on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My temp hasn't risen or dropped since 3:30. Steady as she goes at 32.4 I went up above 34 for a bit and assumed it would only go up from there. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We're out of the purple now. Lol. Absolutely hate the trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: When will the progression SE end? Will it end? It will not. Again, I'm not quoting myself. "It will snow where it has snowed." Until something in the atmosphere changes the storm track from MA-eastward, that is where the storm will track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The latest from JB to add to the debate/discussion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 the way things always go 10 days out nice colors on map show 20 30 inch snow fall a hecs etc. 5 days out either storm goes mia/out to sea/becomes a cutter out of no where. if it does snow at all any more rain comes in to wash it all away and a quick warm up to melt it. the one exception was this years artic blast in early jan that kept the snow on the ground for about a week plus. this storm is kind of feeling like I told you so again. Now I hope you can laugh at me when it does snow a classic snow storm set up next week. but im sorry I dont trust these trash ass models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now