Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The highs at MDT on the Icon are in the mid teens for Wed and Thur next week. Those temps are right in the ball part for possible max min records at MDT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I understand, but you can’t deny his knowledge. Sorry I shared the educated opinion of a professional Met with thousands of paid followers & corporate clients all over the world… Please don't apologize! I'd be upset if you didn't! It's my choice to not read...the issue is mine to bear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hopefully HH GFS moves in a better direction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As for all the Bastardi debate, which I feel like we get into a couple times a year haha, I think the guy is mostly fine if not a little cringy. Yes he gets a little gung ho and yes he has some know biases but he’s not wrong THAT much more than anyone else in this crazy field. I mean heck, just today I had loads of people texting me how crappy their local forecasters are and how they only heard we were supposed to get at most a coating. I explained most reputable sources had 1-2” but all it takes is one bad forecast. Then you hear the “if only I could be wrong as often at my job” and yada yada. Point being, it’s a brutal field where even the best get it horribly wrong at times. JB may not be one of the best anymore for day to day forecasting but he absolutely has an unprecedented knowledge of historical storms and an uncanny ability for pattern recognition. I’ve seen him in conferences before and his recall ability is second to none. Accept him for what he is and throw him onto the pile of people all trying to figure this stuff out. It’s just one more source to consider. I personally don’t use him much anymore but I’m fine with others posting his thoughts. The more the merrier. I’ve said too much. Carry on. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS looks more like the NAM (good IMO) through 84. Less confluence to the north so a possible earlier turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow on my doorstep Wed AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don’t like the changes at 500 on the 18Z. The ridge out west is much flatter. Pretty big differences early on. Oh well. On to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Low off VA capes but dry air is keeping the precip shield very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don’t like the changes at 500 on the 18Z. The ridge out west is much flatter. Pretty big differences early on. Oh well. On to 0Z.Yes, the 500mb on 18z is way different than on the 12z. Very volatile situation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We would not have asked for a better position of that low when off the VA Capes but there is no phase, and nothing to keep it going due north so we lose it on the GFS. The dry air is killer. What it is NOT is a Miller A though which is unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, anotherman said: Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful. It stings but that’s the hobby. We’ve seen them come back before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ugh the GFS is the worst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The LSV should be getting walloped at this point. Something is not right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Man, why do allow myself to get sucked in time after time. Awful. 100% there has been so many times I have gotten sucked in on weather events. 5 days outs UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is just a wave that keeps getting pushed along by the northern branch. Need phasing, a capture and deepening. At this point, I dont trust anything beyond hour 72 honestly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This 500H look with a low off the Va Capes should have pulled precip and forcing back into the LSV IMO so this run is perfectly fine with me in literals....I do not like that the low waited to it got well off the coast to turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Everyone safely got to our event. And I assume home since roads are much better now than at 12:45. Storm next week seems destine for a southern mauler but hope these models are wrong and we get the goods too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, canderson said: Everyone safely got to our event. And I assume hike since Todd’s are much better now than at 12:45. Storm next week seems destine for a southern mauler but hope these models are wrong and we get the goods too. Glad to hear. It was dicey there for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This 500H look with a low off the Va Capes should have pulled precip and forcing back into the LSV IMO so this run is perfectly fine with me in literals....I do not like that the low waited to it got well off the coast to turn. Its all about that lobe on your graphic over MN and IA. Its holding back and keeping it positively tilted. If that kicks down it changes the whole configuration and the storm is blowing up over the southern mid-atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, AccuChris said: GFS is just a wave that keeps getting pushed along by the northern branch. Need phasing, a capture and deepening. At this point, I dont trust anything beyond hour 72 honestly . I personally think the "PV" coming from N Central Canada is more of an issue than NS energy but that is an issue as to why it is not turning sooner. That GFS should have droped at least 6-12" over the LSV. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, AccuChris said: Its all about that lobe on your graphic over MN and IA. Its holding back and keeping it positively tilted. If that kicks down it changes the whole configuration and the storm is blowing up over the southern mid-atlantic states . I actually think the it is the high coming from the N Central states causing the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I actually think the it is the high coming from the N Central states causing the issue. Its both really and their interaction together gumming up the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Its both really and their interaction together gumming up the works . I personally do not think the NS energy has any doing in pushing that storm over Florida. If anything it is acting to pull the storm back as without it, the low exits Florida and goes east much more quickly. I saw another post in the MA thread which is spot on in my opinion, the thermal boundary which we will call the end of the High pressures influence is what is taking that low off the coast in Florida or GA. I personally think we need the HP and respective influence to back off some as to the break down of the Gfs. I still contend that played out exactly the GFS did, we see heavy snow when the low is off the Va Capes...because that very weak NS energy is there to convey it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (Just my opinion) This is the point the NS trough/wave starts to affect the storm and that is really late for a massive, east coast snow storm. Note that it is a dual barrel low at this point with one area off the VA Capes and one area off GA. On the next frame the lowest area of pressure switches to the north side in response to the NS. The low does bomb out as it phases over the Flemish Cap area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Let’s see if the Euro bounces back at 18z. Hopefully just a 1 run hiccup at 12z that still gave the the LSV 6 to 10. We have the ICON & UKIE with a MECS. We have 4 days to go & lots on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s see if the Euro bounces back at 18z. Hopefully just a 1 run hiccup at 12z that still gave the the LSV 6 to 10. We have the ICON & UKIE with a MECS. We have 4 days to go & lots on the table. Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK! The players are on the field & multiple runs of many models have shown a major storm off & on the last few days. The upside potential is certainly there, but I think many here would be just fine with a widespread Warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nothing like needing a quick phase with a low 200 miles off GA to inspire confidence! LOL. Bring back the 12Z UK! Honestly not feeling this one. If I was on the Eastern shore I'd be estactic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Honestly not feeling this one. If I was on the Eastern shore I'd be estactic I am just hoping for some combination of that high to be more like the UK or Icon (UK weaker/Icon displaced west) to allow that area of energy to the south (generous calling it a low at that point, it is in the 1010's) to feel the NS wave coming before it is so far off the coast. If the 540 line is down into SC and the NS wave is lagging, she is going get out into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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