Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Itstrainingtime]

30 minutes ago, paweather said:

MA winter continues  can’t we all have fun.

 

I feel the same way BUT it is very typical of Nina winters.

[CASH_COOP]

2.2” was my final.   31 now with freezing rain 

[WmsptWx]

50 minutes ago, paweather said:

MA winter continues  can’t we all have fun.

 

It will snow where it has snowed. 

[mahantango#1]

Temp 31.8 and basically rain here. 1in. of snow fell.

[Voyager]

Just measured. 1.5" here. All snow still.

Temp 28

[ChescoWx]

Here in East Nantmeal in NW Chesco - Sleet mainly now mixed with some flakes....snow/sleet so far 1.5". Monthly snow total now at 5.9" . Seasonal totals for 2024-25 is up to 20.4" of snow this is now 83% of normal snow through today which is 4.1" from normal snow through today of 24.5 inches

[mahantango#1]

Wxrisk.com

  · 

 

Because of the importance and size of the snowstorm FEB `19-20 I have decided to do a video update this evening.

Briefly the 12Z European and the GFS models are moving to closer agreement. They take the LOW further east as opposed to NE which means much less sleet and freezing rain in Richmond Central Virginia and even now accumulating snow into Southeast Virginia and Hampton Roads.

The early Saturday morning models ( 0z and 6z) European model as well as the Canadian the GFS and the British models had the surface LOW tracking a little further to the north which pushed the sleet and freezing rain mixture deeper into Central Virginia into the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey and had essentially all rain in Hampton roads.

The new data however is says no thats not correct. There is a new piece of energy which comes in from the West Coast that forces the big winter storm LOW w pressure area in the Midwest and the Deep South to track east -- NOT NE -- which means it stays colder in all of Virginia Maryland Delaware with impressive if not huge amounts of snow.

Now that doesn't mean this new solution here at midday on the European British model and the GFS and the Canadian (which are all colder and snowier) for all portions of Virginia Maryland and Delaware… will end up being the correct solution.

That has yet to be determined.

but for those who really like big snow --more important is that the Ensemble data is also taking the system further east so the LOW pressure area does not move into Southeast Virginia but instead tracks along the Carolina coast to Cape Hatteras and then off the coast. This is NOT great news for areas north of Philadelphia but it's fabulous news for snow lovers in Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey Virginia and Western and central North Carolina

[AccuChris]

Not saying the outcome will be ultimately like this but there are SOME similarities to next weeks set up and the Blizzard of ‘96. Or note, the 3-6 day models all struggled initially with the storm and many had the storm heading out to sea and sparring NYC northeastward. There was strong high pressure over New England and the Northern Plains and ejecting energy out of the southwest with low pressure that developed over the Gulf States. That storm never went below 982mb but had a perfect phase and closing off of the upper and mid-levels. Ironically, its surface maps look similar to what the models (the runs that really go wild) are depicting next week.


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[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Not saying the outcome will be ultimately like this but there are SOME similarities to next weeks set up and the Blizzard of ‘96. Or note, the 3-6 day models all struggled initially with the storm and many had the storm heading out to sea and sparring NYC northeastward. There was strong high pressure over New England and the Northern Plains and ejecting energy out of the southwest with low pressure that developed over the Gulf States. That storm never went below 982mb but had a perfect phase and closing off of the upper and mid-levels. Ironically, its surface maps look similar to what the models (the runs that really go wild) are depicting next week.


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Great post & this is far from decided.

Joe Bastardi has a post from this afternoon saying the models that jumping the low out are keying on the wrong boundary. He believes the storm will continue up the coast to deliver a major storm.

His analog blend for this storm are January 96, January 16 & April 1982.

[Jns2183]

Great post & this is far from decided.
Joe Bastardi has a post from this afternoon saying the models that jumping the low out are keying on the wrong boundary. He believes the storm will continue up the coast to deliver a major storm.
His analog blend for this storm are January 96, January 16 & April 1982.

The day before the blizzard of 96 I believe the forecast was for 6-10" up in Harrisburg

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[WmsptWx]

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

Lmao he throws random predictions like this coming pattern will rival so and so. He's never right it seems. 

[Itstrainingtime]

ICON is a beat down for a lot of us - 12-20" less west and more east.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

A lot and a lot wrong it’s a 50/50 just like any other winter. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

No disrespect to those who share his thoughts, but when I see Joe Bastardi I move on and refuse to read. His thoughts mean nothing to me.

Which honestly is sad because 40 years ago I hung to his words.

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

This is 1000000% his wheelhouse.

He knows east coast storm history & pattern recognition better than most.

He is at his best in these scenarios.

[AccuChris]

Great post & this is far from decided.
Joe Bastardi has a post from this afternoon saying the models that jumping the low out are keying on the wrong boundary. He believes the storm will continue up the coast to deliver a major storm.
His analog blend for this storm are January 96, January 16 & April 1982.

To me, the whole key is the northern energy rounding the western periphery of the Plains high diving into the southern branch shortwave and driving the trough neutral to negative and forcing height rises along the east coast. If they stay separate and the southern stream sprints off then you get what the GFS was showing. If it all bundles then you get the epic solutions of the Euro and GEM had been showing


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[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

ICON is a beat down for a lot of us - 12-20" less west and more east.

Very Iconic!

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Can somebody illustrate to me the last time Joe Bastardi was right about a storm?

 

He did well on the one storm in January. 

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

No disrespect to those who share his thoughts, but when I see Joe Bastardi I move on and refuse to read. His thoughts mean nothing to me.

Which honestly is sad because 40 years ago I hung to his words.

I agree though with every forecaster it is the same situation every year can be right can be wrong I wish I had a job like that. I will say Elliott uses common sense and is better with his predictions 

[mahantango#1]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great post & this is far from decided.

Joe Bastardi has a post from this afternoon saying the models that jumping the low out are keying on the wrong boundary. He believes the storm will continue up the coast to deliver a major storm.

His analog blend for this storm are January 96, January 16 & April 1982.

So much to be determined yet.wish we had a clear consensus on the outcome now. That way we can either stick a fork in it or get and extra 5 gallons of gas for the snowblower. Time will tell, we still have a few days to get a clearer picture.

[MillvilleWx]

Hey y'all! Just popping in to say we might be staring down a big one potentially for next week. I am cautiously optimistic about areas east of Rt15 and south of I-78 for some significant snowfall potential. Still a ways to go and it's delicate, so stay vigilant, but I can't say I hate what I'm seeing right now in the overall pattern. Fingers crossed!

[Voyager]

55 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just measured. 1.5" here. All snow still.

Temp 28

Just a mere 15 minutes after I made that post, we flipped to sleet, and now have freezing drizzle.

Temp up one to 29.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

No disrespect to those who share his thoughts, but when I see Joe Bastardi I move on and refuse to read. His thoughts mean nothing to me.

Which honestly is sad because 40 years ago I hung to his words.

I understand, but you can’t deny his knowledge.

Sorry I shared the educated opinion of a professional Met with thousands of paid followers & corporate clients all over the world…

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

To me, the whole key is the northern energy rounding the western periphery of the Plains high diving into the southern branch shortwave and driving the trough neutral to negative and forcing height rises along the east coast. If they stay separate and the southern stream sprints off then you get what the GFS was showing. If it all bundles then you get the epic solutions of the Euro and GEM had been showing


.

You picked the NAM to show that and the 84  hr NAM is a lot more enticing than the regem was.   The rrem had suppression written on it IMO.   PS-You add a head and two lines for feet to that "arrow" and it could be a squiggly man enjoying a vacation in Bermuda!   

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey y'all! Just popping in to say we might be staring down a big one potentially for next week. I am cautiously optimistic about areas east of Rt15 and south of I-78 for some significant snowfall potential. Still a ways to go and it's delicate, so stay vigilant, but I can't say I hate what I'm seeing right now in the overall pattern. Fingers crossed!

Totals for Lebanon County 

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I understand, but you can’t deny his knowledge.

Sorry I shared the educated opinion of a professional Met with thousands of paid followers & corporate clients all over the world…

Every forecaster has their own way of interpretation of the models. But we need this storm to make it a complete witer.

[Superstorm]

We take ICON and run….




.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

We take Ukie and run….




.

Did Germany invade England? 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

We take Ukie and run….




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Ukie & ICON