Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How's the 18z AI looking for Tuesday? Hard to tell off of pivotal.  Looks a little lighter at first but then precip ramps up Wednesday evening but is it still snow at that point? 

2m and 850s look ok but thicknesses is moving north pretty quick at that point

1st waive is a lighter run that started at 12z as 6z was probably one of the wettest.

Should be snow at the front end but hard to tell because thermals are OK at start of the 6 hour period but are gone at the end. Probably best to stick with other models with better graphics for part 2 imho.

[mitchnick]

Nice north bump of heights on Nam at 24hrs

 

[Albedoman]

fwiw, I posted this earlier. Yes I am disgusted with the models the last few months.

It will literally take a miracle of a storm event to get out of this very  progressive pattern with no ties to GOA or Atlantic moisture to build upon for our area with storm events.   The drought is the king folks for the foreseeable future.  I will no longer rely on the models for precip prediction until the  progressive pattern changes for weeks rather than for one event. Every model has been horribly operating with wild swings in precip amounts on EVERY SINGLE  model run the past two weeks.  This happens in a progressive pattern when a single storm event is able to tie into a moisture source like the GOA or the Atlantic. 

 

Another fine example of what I am talking about - where the f&*k is the sun today? It was supposed to be mostly sunny not 95%  cloudy for 100th time this past six months. The SR models need to be calibrated PERIOD in these progressive patterns and I have been at this game for over 40 years.  The air  is to damn dry and flowing across the country at break necking speeds. Hard to forecast in these pattern conditions - not faulting MT Holly forecasters as they do a great job analyzing these models but relying on modeling tools appears to be not working even for cloud prediction thats for sure.

The accuracy of the current modeling  is going backwards not forwards for LR modeling too. Throwing different models out there is not helping either like the Icon Ukie JMA etc. NOAA needs to add additional data sources in the Pacific Ocean and sparse areas  to increase the reliability of the data for LR modeling.  

 

[mitchnick]

I don't think the Nam will be an improvement based on composite radar. Heavy stuff stays across MD.

[mitchnick]

It'll be close. We'll need a last minute bump bad.

[AccuChris]

Doesnt look bad this “far” out


.

[mitchnick]

Just now, AccuChris said:

Doesnt look bad this “far” out


.

Probably a baby step north. We'll see.

[mitchnick]

Yeah, a baby step north.

Gotta hope we maintain the wedge too for the next batch.

[mitchnick]

0z vs 18z

 

[mitchnick]

Nam ends colder after 1st wave vs 18z.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Nam ends colder after 1st wave vs 18z.

Sign here for NAM

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sign here for NAM

I’ll sign Paweather enjoy the parade man

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sign here for NAM

WxBell has 10" for BWI and Pivotal says 8". Lol

[GrandmasterB]

0Z NAM a lot better for the southern tier folks 

[mitchnick]

2nd wave pushed me over 6" before the turn over to a brief period of rain.

That's what the AI has been showing for days imby.

[mitchnick]

Part 2 action ftw in central PA.

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Part 2 action ftw in central PA.

Sign me up. 

[canderson]

Congrats to all the eagles fans 

[DDweatherman]

Part 2 weds night into thurs morning is real snowy on GFS, a 4-6” thump from that for LSV folks E & NE

[MAG5035]

I haven’t really posted much lately on the next two events but the evolution of this becoming almost essentially a single two pronged event of sorts between Tuesday and then the system that tries to cut later Wednesday is a detriment to the Tuesday one being the widespread bigger C-PA snow event it otherwise could be… as the system that makes Tuesday’s event ejects out weaker and the energy left for Wed-Thurs one digs. There’s still plenty of moisture for Tuesday, just on a fast W-E flow. So while I can’t rule out a bump north in the next 24hrs, I’m not really expecting more significant accums to get above about the turnpike or so. IMO, this is looking like a 1-2” between the turnpike and 80 and advisory (2-4” perhaps some 5 on the M/D)  in the southern tier of counties centered on the turnpike. Better snows south and not much once above 80. 

That leaves the Wed-Thur system quick on this one’s heels that is going to try to cut into a fairly well positioned Canadian high. Given the reinforcing high and also how quick on the heels this is of something that presumably would have just dropped a good swath of snows centered on the DC/NOVA folks, this has a good chance of running a wave of front end snows much further up into eastern and central PA before any mixing. Especially if the precip gets its act together more quickly.. like the RGEM and GFS has for example. There may not really be much of a lull between these systems in the end. 

                                

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I haven’t really posted much lately on the next two events but the evolution of this becoming almost essentially a single two pronged event of sorts between Tuesday and then the system that tries to cut later Wednesday is a detriment to the Tuesday one being the widespread bigger C-PA snow event it otherwise could be… as the system that makes Tuesday’s event ejects out weaker and the energy left for Wed-Thurs one digs. There’s still plenty of moisture for Tuesday, just on a fast W-E flow. So while I can’t rule out a bump north in the next 24hrs, I’m not really expecting more significant accums to get above about the turnpike or so. IMO, this is looking like a 1-2” between the turnpike and 80 and advisory (2-4” perhaps some 5 on the M/D)  in the southern tier of counties centered on the turnpike. Better snows south and not much once above 80. 

The leaves the Wed-Thur system quick on this one’s heels that is going to try to cut into a fairly well positioned Canadian high. Given the reinforcing high and also how quick on the heels this is of something that presumably would have just dropped a good swath of snows centered on the DC/NOVA folks, this has a good chance of running a wave of front end snows much further up into eastern and central PA before any mixing. Especially if the precip gets its act together more quickly.. like the RGEM and GFS has for example. There may not really be much of a lull between these systems in the end. 

                                

I have seen this type of scenario pan out before many times in the last 30 years.  The second low essentially becomes a modified but weaker miller B type of storm event  as it digs in later and goes rapidly to the northeast  as the dying transfer low holds on little longer east of the Apps instead of completely dying in western PA. The key is how long does it take the secondary low to form with  bringing a decent wave  through central PA . A million dollar question in this progressive pattern.  If the wave did happen this way then a  winter storm warning upgrade could be needed later Wednesday in the middle of the snow event.

[mahantango#1]

Meteorologist Brett Thackara 

esoSrtpdonag3a217uh20mah304m05atc6f866malfg554h3ic09llgctlml  · 

#SNOW OR NO?

Tomorrow night could feature some light snow for areas south of Route 30. Our region is on the northern edge of this storm, which means most moisture will be south. If anybody gets 1-3" it will be our southern tier. Not ready to commit to that yet though. Some guidance still brings our region next to nothing. Stay tuned! #27Weather #PAwx

[Storm Clouds]

All models seem pretty well locked in now with 1-3 in south central PA…especially south. MD wins big again this year. 

[mitchnick]

Just have to hope Gfs is correct with a colder/drier part 1 leads to a colder/snowier part 2.

Hugging the Gfs almost gives me a bad taste in my mouth. Lol

[mahantango#1]

Awfully quiet in here today. Seems like another snowstorm letdown has taken it's toll.

[mitchnick]

6z AI cut back even more on qpf. If it's closer to right than wrong, a whole lot of folks in MD will be unhappy.

Some in this forum actually have a shot at doing better with round 2 than 1.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Awfully quiet in here today. Seems like another snowstorm letdown has taken it's toll.

I think it is called the Super Bowl hangover. LOL. I think 3-5" Tuesday/Wednesday isn't bad!

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Awfully quiet in here today. Seems like another snowstorm letdown has taken it's toll.

I have covid so taking a break myself. 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have covid so taking a break myself. 

Sorry to hear that. Get better soon. Your contributions on the weather are missed when your not on here.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Happy hungover Monday, all.  Low of 26 here.  Congrats to all the Eagles fans out there, what a walloping that was!  I've been out of the loop with regard to this week's threats but I'll hop back into things for the upcoming 12z suite and see if I can wrangle us some snow.