Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, this has been on my mind as well.  Only thing we know is that we are locked and loaded for storms/qpf.  Still think Tues is out best shot, but theres alot to iron out after that.  I'm not sold on the cutter scenarios, but if strong enough and NAO slightly pos, it sure is a viable option....just not the preferred one.

Agree. Tuesday is a BIG potential for us to score. 

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The temp went up to 39 overnight, now it went back down. And that wind awhile ago was gusty. I had a gust to 37.

Not sure about y'all, but the black ice was LEGIT on the way into the office.  My arse was almost sideways a couple times.  Funny thing is that digi thermo stayed between 36-37 whole way in.  Guess ground temps just cold enough for the refreeze.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Whats the feelings on tomorrows mess? Will there be a little more snow or more sleet and freezing rain?

Slightly more frozen than yesterday, but south of 80 mostly ZR/IP.  North of 80 sn/ip would be my guess.  Poconos, winner winner

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 34 here, and as I mentioned last night, my total qpf came to .49" off of my .2" IP/ZR.  I feel real good about Tuesday and real uneasy beyond that.  I actually really like Saturday night too as a fun sneaky little event with more upside than yesterday's affair.  To say I'll be locked into today's 12z runs is an understatement ha.

I am not in favor of separate threads for each threat and haven't had any issues deciphering which posts are about which threat.  Just one man's thoughts.

National high of 97 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -28 near Poplar, MT for an impressive Lower 48 diurnal range of 125 degrees. 

Happy Friday, all!  NAM is running so dare I say, in my best Kevin James voice........gentlemen, start your engines!!!

[pasnownut]

Based on the thread/storm id chatter....

Can I suggest to keep it simple (and in one thread)

ID them as follows:

#1 - Tomorrows icy/snow gig

#2- next weeks mid week mauler (wed)

#3 -  next weeks mid week mauler part 2 (thurs)

#4 - the weekend of love event

Rather simple n basic but if you are chattin up something just put the # event, and we'll go from there.  We're smart like that.

[str8liner]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You read accurate information regarding 1993.

It was uncanny - this was the timeframe of when the Weather Channel was actually a weather channel and a respected one at that. The entire week (storm was on a Saturday) they talked in absolutes that a 100 year storm was going to impact the entire eastern seaboard. For weather/snow weenies that was the best week in my lifetime. It was "must see" TV the entire week. I'll never forget it. 

There's a lot of good content on You Tube today for that storm. 

I remember them flat out saying "there is no question, this is going to happen" a week out. None of this scenario low track stuff you get nowadays.

I have live here my entire life and that is the only time I came close to getting stranded out on the road. Had a meeting the morning it started, in Breezewood, and tried to get it done and over early, and get home. I tried to tell my father we shouldn't try it. Mistake. It snowed so hard the couple hours we were in the meeting that we had to shovel the car out to try to get out of the parking lot. Then barely got home and had to run the car in the snow piled up along side of the road and let it set.

The memorable part for me was the wind Saturday night. Hurricane force winds and pounding snow. House made noises never heard before, or since.

Storms like that and 1996 ruined us old guys lol. People are like "Oh big storms a comin! " We are like, yea, I guess if you say so. 

[pasnownut]

No matter how all this shakes down...Havin fun w/ y'all. 

 

Other id thoughts came to mind w/ the ID's but some were not so  family oriented.

I was hell bent on suggesting namin #4 the NUTbuster event, but i didnt want yall thinkin bout me when doin your best work w/ your significant other next weekend.  That'd marsh your mellow real quick. 

[paweather]

Gas up those Snowblower engines!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The NAM continues to advertise a nice couple hour period of moderate snow Saturday afternoon (more so for us easterners) before changing to sleet Saturday evening.

[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Not sure about y'all, but the black ice was LEGIT on the way into the office.  My arse was almost sideways a couple times.  Funny thing is that digi thermo stayed between 36-37 whole way in.  Guess ground temps just cold enough for the refreeze.  

Black ice supposedly caused a double fatal on the Blue Mountain on PA309 this morning. The road's been closed for three hours so far. It's our only route with the permitted overweight 8,000 gallon trailers we pull, so the guys are sitting right now.

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/poconos-coal/coroner-called-to-scene-of-accident-on-rt-309/article_6b91f54a-e550-11ef-93f2-5f7a33143e2f.html

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, str8liner said:

I remember them flat out saying "there is no question, this is going to happen" a week out. None of this scenario low track stuff you get nowadays.

I have live here my entire life and that is the only time I came close to getting stranded out on the road. Had a meeting the morning it started, in Breezewood, and tried to get it done and over early, and get home. I tried to tell my father we shouldn't try it. Mistake. It snowed so hard the couple hours we were in the meeting that we had to shovel the car out to try to get out of the parking lot. Then barely got home and had to run the car in the snow piled up along side of the road and let it set.

The memorable part for me was the wind Saturday night. Hurricane force winds and pounding snow. House made noises never heard before, or since.

Storms like that and 1996 ruined us old guys lol. People are like "Oh big storms a comin! " We are like, yea, I guess if you say so. 

The area from about Chambersburg west to the Ohio line was raking Saturday afternoon while my first foot of snow that had already fallen was getting topped off with 4-6" of pure wind-driven sleet. I flipped back to snow that evening and ended up with a storm total of 22" which was 18" of snow and I went low with 4" of sleet. I had 20" OTG Sunday morning. As you mentioned the winds...winds are something often talked about during big storms here but that storm brought it. I was watching the Flyers game that afternoon and they had to postpone it after the 1st period because the wind was blowing windows out in the old Spectrum. 

Hard to fathom we'll ever see something of that magnitude again...but you never know...

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Based on the thread/storm id chatter....

Can I suggest to keep it simple (and in one thread)

ID them as follows:

#1 - Tomorrows icy/snow gig

#2- next weeks mid week mauler (wed)

#3 -  next weeks mid week mauler part 2 (thurs)

#4 - the weekend of love event

Rather simple n basic but if you are chattin up something just put the # event, and we'll go from there.  We're smart like that.

I made and actively use my banter thread out of the respect for and wishes from some of our posters, you included. I was happy to do so.

I also agree with you and others that anything beyond 2 threads for our little sub is overkill. I like having a weather thread and a non-weather thread. We can figure out anything weather-related in our weather thread.  

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The area from about Chambersburg west to the Ohio line was raking Saturday afternoon while my first foot of snow that had already fallen was getting topped off with 4-6" of pure wind-driven sleet. I flipped back to snow that evening and ended up with a storm total of 22" which was 18" of snow and I went low with 4" of sleet. I had 20" OTG Sunday morning. As you mentioned the winds...winds are something often talked about during big storms here but that storm brought it. I was watching the Flyers game that afternoon and they had to postpone it after the 1st period because the wind was blowing windows out in the old Spectrum. 

Hard to fathom we'll ever see something of that magnitude again...but you never know...

arguably one of my all time favorites.  Being as close to you as I am, it was exactly how you describe, and I was out on snowmobile and had to come in because of the sleet intensity.  When it flipped....it just ripped for another 6ish hours and I was just in awe...

thx for the reminder.

[canderson]

I’m super excited it’s windy af again today 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You read accurate information regarding 1993.

It was uncanny - this was the timeframe of when the Weather Channel was actually a weather channel and a respected one at that. The entire week (storm was on a Saturday) they talked in absolutes that a 100 year storm was going to impact the entire eastern seaboard. For weather/snow weenies that was the best week in my lifetime. It was "must see" TV the entire week. I'll never forget it. 

There's a lot of good content on You Tube today for that storm. 

it was a great time to geek out on weather. i was obsessed watching it. i always chuckle as Friday night we always went to happy hour at a local watering hole for wings and adult beverages. I was talking about the upcoming storm for the next day and got the usual push back. I boldly made multiple bets which the bartender wrote on his dry erase board. The following Friday i ate and drank on others. 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

it was a great time to geek out on weather. i was obsessed watching it. i always chuckle as Friday night we always went to happy hour at a local watering hole for wings and adult beverages. I was talking about the upcoming storm for the next day and got the usual push back. I boldly made multiple bets which the bartender wrote on his dry erase board. The following Friday i ate and drank on others. 

Wait in 1993 you were old enough to go to a happy hour? You’re more ancient than I thought! 

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wait in 1993 you were old enough to go to a happy hour? You’re more ancient than I thought! 

 i am now cleaning water off my key board.........ya bastard 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wait in 1993 you were old enough to go to a happy hour? You’re more ancient than I thought! 

You are one of the few (well maybe 50/50 spilt) here who was NOT old enough.  

[GrandmasterB]

Storm #1 is plenty cold on the NAM. I’m more worried about enough precip as other models are fairly dry. 

[Bubbler86]

The Rap is streaking WAA qpf in (mostly south) near daybreak tomorrow.  Something to watch.  Early arrival allows it to fall as snow.

 

 

 

 

[sauss06]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You are one of the few (well maybe 50/50 spilt) here who was NOT old enough.  

Bunch of young punks

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Bunch of young punks

Yep, no situational awareness! LOL.    Hell quite a few people here were in their 30's and 40's in 1993. 

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, no situational awareness! LOL.    Hell quite a few people here were in their 30's and 40's in 1993. 

32

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, no situational awareness! LOL.    Hell quite a few people here were in their 30's and 40's in 1993. 

To my credit , I was just teasing sauss- no comments about age. Good knows I’m older than I think!

[anotherman]

Just now, canderson said:

To my credit , I was just teasing sauss- no comments about age. Good knows I’m older than I think!

I was a freshman in college in '93.  Those were the days.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

To my credit , I was just teasing sauss- no comments about age. Good knows I’m older than I think!

LOL, I was too.    I find it interesting how a large subset of this forum is in the 50's-70's area. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon is rolling.  Storm #1 looked about the same as other depicts.  Here it is Quiet before the 'Storm 2' possibility.    No precip in I would guess 99% of the country at this moment.  Nice track set up for a second storm. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I've seen enough, official MJS forecast for storm #1 for the Lancaster area:

A couple hour period of snow during the mid to late afternoon hours totals about a half inch, followed by a long duration sleet event of varying intensity that amounts to an additional half inch of IP, and ending as a period of light freezing rain and drizzle that adds .05-.1" of glaze on top of everything.  All finished up long before the predawn hours, leaving us with a nice inch plus winter cake that should be dense enough to hang around through the day and give us a white-ish Superbowl Sunday evening.  Book it.

[Bubbler86]

Icon a lot like 12Z yesterday for storm #2.  First piece of energy misses to the south but a weak coastal low forms to throw some snow PA on Wed. 

[Jns2183]

I remember them flat out saying "there is no question, this is going to happen" a week out. None of this scenario low track stuff you get nowadays.
I have live here my entire life and that is the only time I came close to getting stranded out on the road. Had a meeting the morning it started, in Breezewood, and tried to get it done and over early, and get home. I tried to tell my father we shouldn't try it. Mistake. It snowed so hard the couple hours we were in the meeting that we had to shovel the car out to try to get out of the parking lot. Then barely got home and had to run the car in the snow piled up along side of the road and let it set.
The memorable part for me was the wind Saturday night. Hurricane force winds and pounding snow. House made noises never heard before, or since.
Storms like that and 1996 ruined us old guys lol. People are like "Oh big storms a comin! " We are like, yea, I guess if you say so. 

I remember seeing a retired nws employee who had spent his whole career in the guts of their model explain the 1993 model coup in these terms:

On small scales in closed systems watching them hit some kind tipping point where the end result Is certain is just how we've done science experiments forever. A point is reached where are you 100% know happen in a week unless some force outside the closed system acts upon it even though it will continue looking calm till almost the very end.

We could hit a 50% verification wait for many things and I'll models even hours into the future. So what occurred to me was what kind of ungodly force is this thing going to be that it seemed more akin to end result of a city when Godzilla shows up in a movie than to any weather phenomenon I saw in my whole career before or after.

Except he said it in a much more funny and illuminating manner

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