Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

WOW major green on the snowfall map. I can't copy and paste it any longer

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll add that there are notable SLP "adjustments" ongoing opp #4 for mid next week, so reminding all weenies to keep it in your pants, and just make tents for now.  

But said pants can be the tracking pants. 

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll add that there are notable SLP "adjustments" ongoing opp #4 for mid next week, so reminding all weenies to keep it in your pants, and just make tents for now.  

Mines out! I am on a level high excitement mode. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Mines out! I am on a level high excitement mode. 

Ummm.....

 

[Bubbler86]

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

But said pants can be the tracking pants. 

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

consensus says....toss GFS, or compromise, and we get a good ol shellacking.

pants tent starting to take shape.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

 

consensus says....toss GFS, or compromise, and we get a good ol shellacking.

pants tent starting to take shape.  

The one thing about the GFS, it is literally something every day next week.  Some are multi-day threats but 5 days straight of "stuff".

[Bubbler86]

36 nooners.  A bit toastier than I had hoped. 

[paweather]

The ensembles being the 13th is pretty far out will be interesting to see.

[paweather]

32 Cloudy nooner

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The one thing about the GFS, it is literally something every day next week.  Some are multi-day threats but 5 days straight of "stuff".

Yeah, but i'd rename it the "firehose" as we never really know what to expect.  

Regarless, nice to see so many chances.  Somethings gotta get us.  

I know your not a big fan, but tellies are really better than "workable" for the extended.  If we can pull off a decent Feb, I'd be fine w/ March comin in like a loin, and out like a lamb.  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, but i'd rename it the "firehose" as we never really know what to expect.  

Regarless, nice to see so many chances.  Somethings gotta get us.  

I know your not a big fan, but tellies are really better than "workable" for the extended.  If we can pull off a decent Feb, I'd be fine w/ March comin in like a loin, and out like a lamb.  

My only issue with the tellies is when they are used to suggest another modeled solution (such as Euro weeklies) is not right and the tellies are somehow "better" data.  They are both model data and either can be wrong.     I am not much of a Long Ranger outside fun model PBP's so do not use them myself but like you said and from what others have said, no real sight of extended spring weather right now. 

[sauss06]

37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

36 nooners.  A bit toastier than I had hoped. 

i was just out, its cold and feels damp. 33 here

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My only issue with the tellies is when they are used to suggest another modeled solution (such as Euro weeklies) is not right and the tellies are somehow "better" data.  They are both model data and either can be wrong.     I am not much of a Long Ranger outside fun model PBP's so do not use them myself but like you said and from what others have said, no real sight of extended spring weather right now. 

merely an indicator of what a pattern might look like based on +/-'s of each tellie.  As i've said many times, in the infamous words of Joe B....when looking at model runs...does it fit the pattern?  That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades, and It has worked rather well overall from my amateur view, so I'll stick w/ it until something better comes around. 

This years long lead calls, have been riddled w/ busts, and while I'm not judging whatsoever, we all have "our" bag of toys that we like pull from when makin guesses.  Thats all. I'm checkin out for the afternoon, so go reel in the Euro in a bit and hook us a doozy

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

merely an indicator of what a pattern might look like based on +/-'s of each tellie.  As i've said many times, in the infamous words of Joe B....when looking at model runs...does it fit the pattern?  That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades, and It has worked rather well overall from my amateur view, so I'll stick w/ it until something better comes around. 

This years long lead calls, have been riddled w/ busts, and while I'm not judging whatsoever, we all have "our" bag of toys that we like pull from when makin guesses.  Thats all. I'm checkin out for the afternoon, so go reel in the Euro in a bit and hook us a doozy

Hopefully Paweather keeps it in this time. 

[Voyager]

16 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i was just out, its cold and feels damp. 33 here

33 here as well, but at this point yet it's a nice, sunny day.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

33 here as well, but at this point yet it's a nice, sunny day.

NWS was 35 down here so the 37 I am at right now is not too bad...bur was hoping for it to stay low 30's to set the stage for tonight. 

[Bubbler86]

Euro with some minor snow and ice sat night.  But not a lot there on this run for that system. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Euro is locked up at hr 102/105.  Delayed with no morning kindergarten.  

[paweather]

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hopefully Paweather keeps it in this time. 

I'll try!

[Bubbler86]

Pivotal is still way behind but stole this from the MA.  Results not how we got there

 

 

[paweather]

beauty:

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

beauty:

[Bubbler86]

Great track for most.  Lanco a little close

 

[GrandmasterB]

For the tonight thing. Interesting note by CTP in the latest update. Bolding is mine:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
10-20F degree dewpoint depressions or T/Td spread continues to
prevent light snow returns over the southern tier counties from
reaching the ground. This setup should eventually help to
enhance the llvl cold air due to favorable evaporative cooling
and wet bulb effects as precip begins to spread from southwest
to northeast and pick up in intensity late tonight/after
midnight.

[Bubbler86]

Here we go again

[AccuChris]

Total kuchera snow through the period on the Euro


.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

put it up for sure!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

Total kuchera snow through the period on the Euro


.

Not a fan of THIS particular output. Hate riding the southern edge. I liked the output with purples well down into central VA much better than this. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Total kuchera snow through the period on the Euro


.

That is below 10-1 on Pivotal through hour 210 for Southern Lanco.  So Kuch going lower.