Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[GrandmasterB]

GFS is a tick colder for the Wednesday night deal. Surface temps in the upper 20’s.

[pasnownut]

37 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Agree and I’m also noticing that the sleet accumulation maps have accums south of the M/D line which makes me think it will hang on even in southern PA for quite awhile. 

Sounds like we look at the same thing in situ's like this, and why I look at "snow" maps, for that very reason, even if I've no idea what rendition of frozen is falling. 

When they eek south, or hold, that's the sign us frozen lovers look for, and that CAD is doin its thingy...or not.  

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I like the looks of the Icon at the end of its run.

I'm not bothered by the GFS for next week, and I'm gonna say it....

right where we want it....for now.  Arctic boundary shifted notably south.  

[Bubbler86]

Northern Stream vort/trough looking for lasting and explosive relationship with Southern Stream Energy.  Serious inquires only.

 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

A big one as is but could have been more with that 500 Look.  We could have been pulling the word tuck out.  Of course the phase would have risked it pulling too far in. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Can't post it right now but wow...Elliott is going big time in emphasizing a major impact winter storm tomorrow night. He's telling people to stay off the roads, period. (unless for emergencies and absolute required travel)

[Itstrainingtime]

Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott)

[paweather]

Good GFS run

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott)

Yeah the roads are going to be nightmarish Thursday morning.  Usually in events like this it takes until around lunch time until things soften up enough to be passable.  Hopefully people get the message. 

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott)

 

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah the roads are going to be nightmarish Thursday morning.  Usually in events like this it takes until around lunch time until things soften up enough to be passable.  Hopefully people get the message. 

As other have said, that sleet bomb is the key.    An Icon like situation of only FRZ is not going to be that terrible once the sun comes up.    I doubt I have much in the way over here as to FRZ. 

[Superstorm]

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[GrandmasterB]

23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can't post it right now but wow...Elliott is going big time in emphasizing a major impact winter storm tomorrow night. He's telling people to stay off the roads, period. (unless for emergencies and absolute required travel)

Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call.

[Jns2183]

Question now is if its necessary Thursday to shovel an inch of concrete or if it will for sure all melt before refreeze

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[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call.

CTP's page does not seem to list the sleet requirements for a WSW but some other places use 1/2".  Snow is 5" in the LSV and SE, 6" rest of the state....and 1/4" for ice except for 9 NE most counties which are 1/2" of ice. 

[Jns2183]

CTP's page does not seem to list the sleet requirements for a WSW but some other places use 1/2".  Snow is 5" in the LSV and SE, 6" rest of the state....and 1/4" for ice except for 9 NE most counties which are 1/2" of ice. 

I would think a wsw would be prudent

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[AccuChris]

I would be surprised if they went Winter Storm Watch. My guess is they will issue a WWA for LSV from noon Wednesday to noon Thursday for up to 1” of sleet/snow and 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of ice


.

[WmsptWx]

16 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call.

They're going to wait until five minutes before precipitation and issue WSW.

[Bubbler86]

UK is a sleet bomb as well...little to no FRZ unless pivotal output of the UK is different than their outer suites. 

 

[Bubbler86]

UK for the weekend is mostly a snow to rain situation.  Not a lot of ice.

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott)

that .15 of zr would really pack r in tight.  Holy shnikeys...

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Good GFS run

verbaitm, exciting times nontheless.  We may not always be on the right side, but it's gonna b fun watchin. 

[mahantango#1]

Wxrisk.com

nrdepStoos0859th19g4u372u601i02gu55hlaa9a6cu0fi1cc72c4fchic0  · 

 

WATCH OUT FOR FEB 11-12 in the Ohio valley/ Middle Atlantic/ southern New England

[Bubbler86]

Euro is mostly freezing rain with some plain rain... with temps too high to be a major event for the LSV in my opinion.  Just a prog, not a forecast and I am sure someone has Cad knowledge on how well the Euro does.  A good bit of the qpf is during daytime as nothing is close to falling at 6Z. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Umm Euro is huge.

[mitchnick]

From MA, so north is cutoff. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

As other have said, that sleet bomb is the key.    An Icon like situation of only FRZ is not going to be that terrible once the sun comes up.    I doubt I have much in the way over here as to FRZ. 

I've been pouring over the skew-T's and I think that subfreezing layer will be at least a few thousand feet thick for the bulk of the event.  I'm putting my chips on this being a pretty big sleet bomb.  I expect to be woken up to the not-so-sweet sound of pingers during the predawn hours.

[Bubbler86]

[mitchnick]

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

 A Chattanooga Choo Choo with sweet temps.

 

[Bubbler86]

This should result in another chance whether the Euro sees it that way or not