GrandmasterB Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS is a tick colder for the Wednesday night deal. Surface temps in the upper 20’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:47 PM, GrandmasterB said: Agree and I’m also noticing that the sleet accumulation maps have accums south of the M/D line which makes me think it will hang on even in southern PA for quite awhile. Expand Sounds like we look at the same thing in situ's like this, and why I look at "snow" maps, for that very reason, even if I've no idea what rendition of frozen is falling. When they eek south, or hold, that's the sign us frozen lovers look for, and that CAD is doin its thingy...or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 3:56 PM, mitchnick said: I like the looks of the Icon at the end of its run. Expand I'm not bothered by the GFS for next week, and I'm gonna say it.... right where we want it....for now. Arctic boundary shifted notably south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Northern Stream vort/trough looking for lasting and explosive relationship with Southern Stream Energy. Serious inquires only. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A big one as is but could have been more with that 500 Look. We could have been pulling the word tuck out. Of course the phase would have risked it pulling too far in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Can't post it right now but wow...Elliott is going big time in emphasizing a major impact winter storm tomorrow night. He's telling people to stay off the roads, period. (unless for emergencies and absolute required travel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Good GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:49 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott) Expand Yeah the roads are going to be nightmarish Thursday morning. Usually in events like this it takes until around lunch time until things soften up enough to be passable. Hopefully people get the message. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:49 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott) Expand On 2/4/2025 at 4:54 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah the roads are going to be nightmarish Thursday morning. Usually in events like this it takes until around lunch time until things soften up enough to be passable. Hopefully people get the message. Expand As other have said, that sleet bomb is the key. An Icon like situation of only FRZ is not going to be that terrible once the sun comes up. I doubt I have much in the way over here as to FRZ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:46 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Can't post it right now but wow...Elliott is going big time in emphasizing a major impact winter storm tomorrow night. He's telling people to stay off the roads, period. (unless for emergencies and absolute required travel) Expand Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Question now is if its necessary Thursday to shovel an inch of concrete or if it will for sure all melt before refreeze Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 5:11 PM, GrandmasterB said: Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call. Expand CTP's page does not seem to list the sleet requirements for a WSW but some other places use 1/2". Snow is 5" in the LSV and SE, 6" rest of the state....and 1/4" for ice except for 9 NE most counties which are 1/2" of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 5:18 PM, Bubbler86 said: CTP's page does not seem to list the sleet requirements for a WSW but some other places use 1/2". Snow is 5" in the LSV and SE, 6" rest of the state....and 1/4" for ice except for 9 NE most counties which are 1/2" of ice. I would think a wsw would be prudent Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I would be surprised if they went Winter Storm Watch. My guess is they will issue a WWA for LSV from noon Wednesday to noon Thursday for up to 1” of sleet/snow and 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 5:11 PM, GrandmasterB said: Pretty strong wording from him. Interesting to see how CTP plays this one. Could make the case for watches further SE instead of advisories, but it’s a close call. Expand They're going to wait until five minutes before precipitation and issue WSW. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 UK is a sleet bomb as well...little to no FRZ unless pivotal output of the UK is different than their outer suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 UK for the weekend is mostly a snow to rain situation. Not a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:49 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Coating to 2" of sleet followed by up to .15" of freezing rain. (Elliott) Expand that .15 of zr would really pack r in tight. Holy shnikeys... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 4:51 PM, paweather said: Good GFS run Expand verbaitm, exciting times nontheless. We may not always be on the right side, but it's gonna b fun watchin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Wxrisk.com nrdepStoos0859th19g4u372u601i02gu55hlaa9a6cu0fi1cc72c4fchic0 · WATCH OUT FOR FEB 11-12 in the Ohio valley/ Middle Atlantic/ southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro is mostly freezing rain with some plain rain... with temps too high to be a major event for the LSV in my opinion. Just a prog, not a forecast and I am sure someone has Cad knowledge on how well the Euro does. A good bit of the qpf is during daytime as nothing is close to falling at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Umm Euro is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 From MA, so north is cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 5:02 PM, Bubbler86 said: As other have said, that sleet bomb is the key. An Icon like situation of only FRZ is not going to be that terrible once the sun comes up. I doubt I have much in the way over here as to FRZ. Expand I've been pouring over the skew-T's and I think that subfreezing layer will be at least a few thousand feet thick for the bulk of the event. I'm putting my chips on this being a pretty big sleet bomb. I expect to be woken up to the not-so-sweet sound of pingers during the predawn hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 6:45 PM, mitchnick said: Expand A Chattanooga Choo Choo with sweet temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 This should result in another chance whether the Euro sees it that way or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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