Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 33 here but temp currently up to 40. Yesterday was a bust low but I say today busts high, as my P&C has a high of only 45. Oftentimes it’s just timing with these temp disparities. Time to hit the road for the train station. Choo choo. 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

True - I should refine that to say by the time it comes to commuting 

The LSV holds the cold & it is tough to scour out in these icing situations.

[WmsptWx]

Huge discrepancy between my point and click and the hour-by-hour graphic CTP posted last night. 

 

The hourly projection has snow and ice by 10 am tomorrow. Point and click doesn't even start the event until after 1 pm.

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The LSV holds the cold & it is tough to scour out in these icing situations.

From CTP forecast discussion…

Temperatures are progged to rebound considerably Thursday
afternoon, though temperatures soaring into the 50s appears less
and less likely as the event draws closer. It is difficult to
scour out the cold air after these events, so trending below
guidance seems prudent

[mahantango#1]

By Wednesday evening, broad southeast flow in the wake of
retreating high pressure will keep cold air locked in east of
the mountains as a warm nose of overrunning precipitation
overspreads the region. The aforementioned band of snow will
gradually lift northeast ahead of a broad area of low pressure
moving in from the Ohio Valley with a transition to sleet and
eventually freezing rain during the overnight hours. Model
soundings have indicated that the layer of cold air at the
surface could be a little bit deeper than previous runs,
indicating potential for a longer period of sleet overnight
before an inevitable transition to freezing rain. QPF amounts
are generally 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-80, >0.75" in the
Laurels, and 0.5-0.75" east of I-99 and south of I-80.

Temperatures are progged to rebound considerably Thursday
afternoon, though temperatures soaring into the 50s appears less
and less likely as the event draws closer. It is difficult to
scour out the cold air after these events, so trending below
guidance seems prudent. Even still, highs in the 40s areawide
should help most, if not all, of the ice melt during the
afternoon and evening before cooler air filters in from the
north as another cold front moves in.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Blizzard of 93]

More from CTP for this first event.

By Wednesday evening, broad southeast flow in the wake of
retreating high pressure will keep cold air locked in east of
the mountains as a warm nose of overrunning precipitation
overspreads the region. The aforementioned band of snow will
gradually lift northeast ahead of a broad area of low pressure
moving in from the Ohio Valley with a transition to sleet and
eventually freezing rain during the overnight hours. Model
soundings have indicated that the layer of cold air at the
surface could be a little bit deeper than previous runs,
indicating potential for a longer period of sleet overnight
before an inevitable transition to freezing rain. QPF amounts
are generally 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-80, >0.75" in the
Laurels, and 0.5-0.75" east of I-99 and south of I-80.
Accounting for the expected precipitation type transitions and
timing, the current forecast paints snow/sleet accumulations of
up to an inch for much of central and northeast PA (higher
amounts under the aforementioned Wednesday snow band), and
widespread 0.10"+ ice accretion with amounts >0.25" favored in
the Laurel Highlands through midday Thursday.

[Bubbler86]

46 here this AM.  Never made it past 40 last night and actually rose to 61 at one point.   So we already have a double digit An deviation today. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The overnight ensembles are still looking very encouraging for the next 2 weeks.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The overnight ensembles are still looking very encouraging for the next 2 weeks.

 

[mahantango#1]

[Jns2183]

Do schools go for the 2 hour delay or the full day close? I feel the 2 hour delay way too optimistic. I'm sure they will all just transition to online day and close.

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[Bubbler86]

Nam starting to backtrack on super streak a b it but still fairly potent.   Rgem and Icon have it as well though farther south.  

 

[mahantango#1]

11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Do schools go for the 2 hour delay or the full day close? I feel the 2 hour delay way too optimistic. I'm sure they will all just transition to online day and close.

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

I think you just called it!

[Jns2183]

Nam starting to backtrack on super streak a b it but still fairly potent.   Rgem and Icon have it as well though farther south.  



 

Such a narrow streak of fluffy. It's going to suck watching it dump a mile away from the window as it throws me a pity flurry or two

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[ChescoWx]

With a cold frontal passage this AM we have already reached our high temperature for the day. We should see our temperatures hold steady this morning then fall this afternoon. We should reach freezing during the 6pm hour across much of Chester and Berks Counties. We then look to stay below freezing tomorrow and through rush hour on Thursday. This sets the stage for a messy mix of snow to sleet to freezing rain before it tapers off from southwest to northeast on Thursday. Precipitation looks to arrive Wednesday evening. We get to do this all over again Saturday afternoon into evening.

[WmsptWx]

For the first time since I genuinely believe early December, my yard is mostly free of snow. 

 

I think I can count on one hand the number of days I've been able to see grass in my yard since Thanksgiving where we received two inches of snow. 

 

And it's currently sleeting.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

15 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

For the first time since I genuinely believe early December, my yard is mostly free of snow. 

 

I think I can count on one hand the number of days I've been able to see grass in my yard since Thanksgiving where we received two inches of snow. 

 

And it's currently sleeting.

I was just talking about this with my buddy who has a cabin up near Galeton that has only been snow-free for one or two days since Thanksgiving.  They are still snow covered but barely.  It's been an amazing run. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam starting to backtrack on super streak a b it but still fairly potent.   Rgem and Icon have it as well though farther south.  

 

 

I think a lot of other guidance has nothing or pushes it south. C'est La vie as a weenie.

[mitchnick]

No shock. 12k Nam losing the snow streak.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

No shock. 12k Nam losing the snow streak.

It's still there, just quite narrow, but yeah, I was never fully bought in on the idea of multiple inches of snow during the day tomorrow.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It's still there, just quite narrow, but yeah, I was never fully bought in on the idea of multiple inches of snow during the day tomorrow.

3k has no accumulations now.

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k has no accumulations now.

Icon too.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon too.

Rgem too. 

[anotherman]

RGEM is a sleet bomb.

[pasnownut]

Ice 

Ice 

Baby

all i've got to add to the disco....(see what i did there)?

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

RGEM is a sleet bomb.

If 1/2 of that verifies, and you add some Zr to the mix....that might be a problem.  Glad I brought some more wood down last night.

[Jns2183]

RGEM is a sleet bomb.

@MAG5035 had two great posts late night the last two nights that make me give credence to the sleet bomb angle above all.

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[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

@MAG5035 had two great posts late night the last two nights that make me give credence to the sleet bomb angle above all.

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antecedent cold and how long it can hold w/ this CAD scenario makes me think things might just come in a smidge colder, and we all know in close situ's like this 1-2 deg's is a big difference.  if one toggles through the 700/850's youll note that there is much more of a west (700's) and west to s/w at 850's component and no strong southerly fetch.  Thats what i'm hangin my hat on anyways.  Its gonna be a close one for us, but up in the Skook and points NE, I'd think they stay largely frozen at surface, even if its oh so shallow.  the warmup is rather brief as well, and that 50's stuff looks largely gone for the easter folks.  we may need some 40's to crack the ice a bit.  

[GrandmasterB]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

antecedent cold and how long it can hold w/ this CAD scenario makes me think things might just come in a smidge colder, and we all know in close situ's like this 1-2 deg's is a big difference.  if one toggles through the 700/850's youll note that there is much more of a west (700's) and west to s/w at 850's component and no strong southerly fetch.  Thats what i'm hangin my hat on anyways.  Its gonna be a close one for us, but up in the Skook and points NE, I'd think they stay largely frozen at surface, even if its oh so shallow.  the warmup is rather brief as well, and that 50's stuff looks largely gone for the easter folks.  we may need some 40's to crack the ice a bit.  

Agree and I’m also noticing that the sleet accumulation maps have accums south of the M/D line which makes me think it will hang on even in southern PA for quite awhile. 

[mitchnick]

I like the looks of the Icon at the end of its run.