Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

did any one reach 50 or higher today? struggled and only got to 42 here. overnight low is forecast at 40 all ready 37 clear skies 

Almost got to 60 here.

[Blizzard of 93]

Sign me up for either NAM for this first event.

I don’t mind ice storms as much if there is an inch or 2 of snow at the onset. It just makes the ice look more Wintry to me & it gives a little traction on the roads.

[CarlislePaWx]

The forecast high for me earlier today was becoming sunny with a high of 53.  Instead, the overcast held on until after 2pm.  That limited sunshine was only able to push temps up to my high of 44 degrees.  The projected low temp for me tonight is 40 degrees.  My current temperature is 30.6 degrees.  Looks like CTP needs revisions.

[canderson]

44 was my high. 

[Bubbler86]

Icon is a mitch masher for Wed snow though I do not think accums will match nam.

[Ruin]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Almost got to 60 here.

damn yeah it stayed cloudy till about 3ish with a slight wind. whats your temp down to now?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon is a mitch masher for Wed snow though I do not think accums will match nam.

 

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The forecast high for me earlier today was becoming sunny with a high of 53.  Instead, the overcast held on until after 2pm.  That limited sunshine was only able to push temps up to my high of 44 degrees.  The projected low temp for me tonight is 40 degrees.  My current temperature is 30.6 degrees.  Looks like CTP needs revisions.

I agree while the cloud deck sticking around happens normally we can still hit a higher temp with a southerly wind. It honestly felt like the winds were a eastward fetch off the ocean. with this said high and low temps are normally off more often then not.

[CarlislePaWx]

12k gives me almost 4" while 3k gives about 2".  I'll split the difference and go with 3", followed by a heavy sleet storm that maybe ends as a little freezing rain.  I don't think I've ever seen intense purple over me on Pivotal before.  The GFS from 12z this morning also had heavy sleet around 4am Thu.  Oh how the anticipation is building...lol.

[Ruin]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sign me up for either NAM for this first event.

I don’t mind ice storms as much if there is an inch or 2 of snow at the onset. It just makes the ice look more Wintry to me & it gives a little traction on the roads.

I want no ice considering I live in a hilly area on top of which we have some trees that are dying around the house due to japanese beetles. all ready had 2 tree branches last year come down on my car.  

[Bubbler86]

Lots of frz on icon but temps are borderline in Lsv.

[Bubbler86]

Rgem is a sleet bomb for much of eastern pa

 

[Jns2183]

Lots of frz on icon but temps are borderline in Lsv.

CAD

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

CAD

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

Cad is there...just verbatim it warms enough to minimize the frz risk.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Rgem is a sleet bomb for much of eastern pa

 

That's a lot of sleet.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That's a lot of sleet.

I think a sleet bomb is the best chance for this to be an event the causes disruption.  I am hearing and reading the cad will win posts but it is not that cold going into the event.  If we agree that 30 is a bit warm for frz during the day, there is little room.

[Caveman]

34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Almost got to 60 here.

37°F for my max after a 24°F min...currently 30°F.  Much colder than than my point and click from NWS today...

 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's a lot of sleet.

RGEM sleet 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

RGEM sleet 

RGEM freezing rain 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

RGEM sleet 

Plows down for you.

[Jns2183]

RGEM freezing rain 

It's that one two combo that can really cause havoc. It might be tougher freezing rain to accrete on asphalt at 30° but not on top of sleet. That's the recipe for a glacier

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[canderson]

Call me a negative Nellie but I think temps here all week keep any accumulations near zero. Thursday looks to soar to 50, and Saturday looks to say in the mid to upper 30s. 

[Jns2183]

Places in Japan just got 34" in 6 hours from a synoptic system bombing out. 40"-50" entire storm totals

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

Call me a negative Nellie but I think temps here all week keep any accumulations near zero. Thursday looks to soar to 50, and Saturday looks to say in the mid to upper 30s. 

Most of it is occurring at night overnight Wednesday

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[canderson]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

Most of it is occurring at night overnight Wednesday

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

True - I should refine that to say by the time it comes to commuting 

[Jns2183]

True - I should refine that to say by the time it comes to commuting 

If there's a layer of sleet it will acreate

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[MAG5035]

Daytime high was 53ºF here before falling back to the 40s early this eve. However, gusty winds ahead of the frontal passage have mixed down some really mild air. It’s 60ºF here right now, which is really overshooting short term guidance. Might not be quite as warm as here but I suspect you guys in the Sus Valley that have had some early radiational cooling tonight might see a similar spike in temps overnight. 

[Jns2183]

Daytime high was 53ºF here before falling back to the 40s early this eve. However, gusty winds ahead of the frontal passage have mixed down some really mild air. It’s 60ºF here right now, which is really overshooting short term guidance. Might not be quite as warm as here but I suspect you guys in the Sus Valley that have had some early radiational cooling tonight might see a similar spike in temps overnight. 

This temperature gradient is something else

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

[Ruin]

hmm this is what they are claiming abc27 for feb 

[MAG5035]

0z Euro continues to have a really large swath of mostly freezing rain with Wed/Thur’s event. Looking at thermals not really sure why it’s like that. Sleet may end up being the dominant p-type for many. 

Using hour 60 at the 1 hr level here’s a breakdown up to 700mb at what it has at that point.

1 hr QPF/p-type

 

2m temps

925mb (3000 ft temps)

850mb (5000ft) temps

700mb (10k feet) temps

As you can see, well below zero ºC temps are well entrenched at 925mb level and the 850 temps are even solidly below zero in most of eastern PA. The warm intrusion goes quite high with this event, with the 700mb level near 0ºC. This really implies a solid period of pingers for most of us IMO. But the WAA intrusion will be top down as the event progresses, things will eventually change to freezing rain and then rain as the event ends. I think CTP’s watch placement is good for now, with perhaps them maybe adding a tier or two of counties east. What might happen with the Sus Valley is the business end of the heavier precip is sleet and a much shorter period of freezing rain before temps edge above freezing. 

Wild card is what happens earlier in the day on Wednesday with the ribbon of WAA forced snows that some models are showing with varying results. The Euro didn’t have it at all. I suspect we’ll have something with that though maybe not as robust with the NAM.

Taking these threats one at a time. The weekend ice threat still looks similar to this one, though this one might end up with more actual QPF. For an actual snow event in C-PA I’m really liking what models have been showing around the 12th. I think we’ll be much better positioned for that period.