paweather Posted Monday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:08 PM 10 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Colder run of the GFS for Thursday. Temps in the upper 20’s with sleet/freezing rain. Interesting to see if that holds or not. 28 vs. 31 makes a pretty big difference as precip is falling. Thanks and sorry for folks that don't want an ice storm but I would love it. We haven't had one for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Monday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:16 PM 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks and sorry for folks that don't want an ice storm but I would love it. We haven't had one for years. I normally would agree with you. Until my drive to work this morning. I'm good for ice for a while. In MU's 11/1 Winter Outlook he did outline a heightened risk of a significant ice storm this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 PM 3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 26 here with .1" of snow/sleet. Looks like a couple of ice storms to contend with on Thu/Sat. The best part of ice storms is getting to view all the wildly overdone pink model maps. What really has my attention is the middle of next week, quite intriguing. Fun tracking times ahead! based on setup, its not a strong cad signal, but it is there, so icy lovers may get some fun. CAD is often undermodelled, so we'll see. Yeah some of the snow maps for next week look crazy. If a third of that verified, I'd be happy....really happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:18 PM 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I normally would agree with you. Until my drive to work this morning. I'm good for ice for a while. In MU's 11/1 Winter Outlook he did outline a heightened risk of a significant ice storm this winter... Understood and sorry. I work from home so I can definitely see your point. Sorry about your co-worker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:22 PM When up in the Dack's this past weekend, I had a one on one w/ MO nature, and asked for some of that deep winter beauty to head south for us.... I made a deal with her, but can't tell you what I owe her in trade. If she delivers....you're welcome in advance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Someone commented this AM that this frz maps are often over done or only apply to trees which I think is true...but still posting the data. This would require a WSW. Not as impressed with the GFS which ends in warmer temps limiting the potential power line issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: based on setup, its not a strong cad signal, but it is there, so icy lovers may get some fun. CAD is often undermodelled, so we'll see. Yeah some of the snow maps for next week look crazy. If a third of that verified, I'd be happy....really happy. So true about the CAD routinely being under-modeled. I almost always assume it will hold stronger than depicted. More often than not, it's just so hard to fully scour away that boundary layer. GFS just came through with another nice hit for next Tuesday, albeit scaled back from prior runs. Edit: And then it follows up with a more complex storm on Wednesday. Just complete tracking madness ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Yeahhh I'd rather not have an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:47 PM A bit too much of a cold thing for next Tue on the CMC. No real mechanism to draw the snow up our way and boundary is down in Central and Southern VA vs. N VA like the GFS (which does show snow and ice via two pieces of energy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 13 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: Yeahhh I'd rather not have an ice storm. While I love all things winter...I am no fan of a crippling one. Just a perty one, that is followed by cold and snow for the pertiest winter landscapes we can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Monday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:56 PM 17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: So true about the CAD routinely being under-modeled. I almost always assume it will hold stronger than depicted. More often than not, it's just so hard to fully scour away that boundary layer. GFS just came through with another nice hit for next Tuesday, albeit scaled back from prior runs. Edit: And then it follows up with a more complex storm on Wednesday. Just complete tracking madness ha. As I'm sure you know, it really is dependent on antecedent cold coupled w/ strength of SLP, and ability for WAA. This one is coming from our WSW, an not up from the south. I pay attention to that because while were not really cold, the warm nose based on winds and weak SLP, may have a little tougher time scouring valleys as you get further east. Were it a strong southerly wind component, I'd think we'd lose 800/925's a bit quicker. That's just where my head is anyways, and why me thinks cold might be a bit tougher to scour. Gonna be really close tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Storm 3 next week and beyond but out past 300 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Ice is like wind. It does nothing but cause destruction. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: As I'm sure you know, it really is dependent on antecedent cold coupled w/ strength of SLP, and ability for WAA. This one is coming from our WSW, an not up from the south. I pay attention to that because while were not really cold, the warm nose based on winds and weak SLP, may have a little tougher time scouring valleys as you get further east. Were it a strong southerly wind component, I'd think we'd lose 800/925's a bit quicker. That's just where my head is anyways, and why me thinks cold might be a bit tougher to scour. Gonna be really close tho. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:11 PM 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Ice is like wind. It does nothing but cause destruction. No bueno. Truth, and yet I still find myself rooting for it like a complete weather psycho. I can't help it; I root for maximum winter events in all their forms and at all times. I'm a slave to the game ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Monday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:11 PM This upcoming pattern BEFORE the "good" pattern reminds me alot of January, 1994. Just not as cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:13 PM 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: This upcoming pattern BEFORE the "good" pattern reminds me alot of January, 1994. Just not as cold. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:30 PM The latest GFS runs has 4 winter events with all but this weekend's event having snow accumulation as part of the mix. This weekend on the model looks like mainly freezing rain changing to rain. Below are the 3 individual model snow events with 2 day totals over the next couple weeks. NOT A FORECAST! The first snow event is this Thursday. #2 is next Wednesday/Thursday and #3 is the weekend of the 14th-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Even the Hot Euro is still signaling ICE on Thursday thought verbatim surface temps are 30-32 in the LSV. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:41 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Can't wait to get this thread to 1000 pages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Very long ranger but the PV Split being ballyhooed about. Near zero at MDT at 7PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:29 PM Maybe we can put the drought discussion to rest for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:36 PM 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Maybe we can put the drought discussion to rest for a while. High level guess, we will need about 4-5" in Feb before they adjust it "too much". Average is a little under .75" per week and so need to double that each week to start making meaningful dents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Monday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:37 PM Watches up in western CTP Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 212 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025 PAZ017-024-025-033-034-041500- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.250205T1800Z-250206T1700Z/ Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford- Including the cities of DuBois, Altoona, Johnstown, Bedford, Somerset, and Clearfield 212 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A period of snow or mixed precipitation possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, then significant ice accumulation possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Total snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches then between two and three tenths of an inch of freezing rain possible. * WHERE...Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Clearfield, and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: High level guess, we will need about 4-5" in Feb before they adjust it "too much". Average is a little under .75" per week and so need to double that each week to start making meaningful dents. AHHH. Thanks well at least there might be some dents into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Monday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:09 PM 45 minutes ago, paweather said: AHHH. Thanks well at least there might be some dents into it. Just using the Euro as an example it shows 2" as the total QPF for you over the next 2 weeks. Definitely a good start to Feb but not a drought buster. We should receive about 1.5" during that time so just a little better than what is normal/what our min should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:27 PM 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just using the Euro as an example it shows 2" as the total QPF for you over the next 2 weeks. Definitely a good start to Feb but not a drought buster. We should receive about 1.5" during that time so just a little better than what is normal/what our min should be. Got it. OK hopefully things get better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:03 PM 18z NAM with snow / sleet and ZR would be quite the messy mix if it was to be believed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Monday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:05 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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