Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I just think the issue is that SW menace.  Were it not for help from the NE blocking, we would be torching with that thing raising heights and the WAR.  I would like to roll it out of there even if it is a cut. 

I do think we lose quite a bit if it gets near 40 this weekend (snow)

those cuttoffs often seem to get hung up (known euro bias of yesteryear), but looping through it appears that its coming out in pieces, until blocking weakens and yep, it cuts.  IF we could hang onto that blocking a bit longer, outside chance at some fun here for next weekend. 

[Bubbler86]

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week.   It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern.   Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now. 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Icon has a different 500H pattern than the GFS next week and a substantial "setback" in driving lows below 0 again for about 1/3 of the state next Wed AM with highs Wed near 20-25 for the LSV. 

UK with a tip of the hat to the Icon.  Quite cold this time next week.  A trough carves out over us and cold air dumps in from the N and NE. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week.   It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern.   Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now. 

I hope youre right.  I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that.  NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days.  Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out.  also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hope youre right.  I think only worry is that once NAO goes into + terrirory during that timeframe, it then is a matter of what happens after that.  NAO as of today looks to head further into + territory and coupled w/ the AO being slated to also be slightly +, that could bring the boundary further north, and is something i'm watchin for in the next few days.  Neut PNA is only ok if we have some NS forcing, and if not, pac origin air likely wins out.  also, IF we can get MJO headed back twds 7/8, I'll feel a bit better and will have trackin pants close by.  

Just to clarify, we could be tracking rain eventually but it is better than tracking how many snow records Florida has broken :-).  I will quote Blizz, at least we are in the game/arena.  LOL

[Summit Snow]

Definition of "WAR"?

 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Definition of "WAR"?

 

Western Atlantic Ridge

Warms us up

[Jns2183]

The way this month is going I'm going to finish it with only 0.65" of precipitation. Dry dry dry

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[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

My take on both the GFS and EC op's, did not look at ensembles, is to get your break in this week and put your tracking pants back on next week.   It could be a total zero in the end but we will have cold area near and eventually the SW pig is going to come out and open up the pipeline for potential bowling balls in a zonal pattern.   Like Nut said, the WAR is not overly troubling on the LR progs right now. 

Here’s the ensembles today, using 5 and 7 day averages so things will be smoothed out some. 

GEFS v Euro 7 day average 500mb height anomalies (D8-15)

GEFS v Euro 5 day average temps (D10-15) 

 

At first glance looking at the 500mb anomaly maps, it doesn’t look great… zonal for the most part but showing low heights over the top (+NAO/AO), troughing west of Hawaii, some SE ridging, etc. But the temp response is hardly indicative of a torch. I will note that the Euro ensemble has a more sizeable warmup D12-13 in the eastern US before going cold again. The GEFS never really does get the NE into any kind of above average temps. 

The last couple winters a 500mb pattern like that would be a pretty pessimistic outlook but this winter isn’t the last couple winters. It’s simply a colder pattern on our side of the pole despite the less than ideal 500mb look. Look where the big + temp anomalies are. That was Canada and the northern US most of last winter. This winter I think we can score out of a zonal pattern, presuming we can get some actual decent systems to develop out of it. Even if we do get an above average regime eventually I don’t really expect it to just warm up and rain. The first decent system to actually attack this persistent cold pattern is likely to be messy.

 

[Superstorm]

Here’s the ensembles today, using 5 and 7 day averages so things will be smoothed out some. 
GEFS v Euro 7 day average 500mb height anomalies (D8-15)

GEFS v Euro 5 day average temps (D10-15) 

 
At first glance looking at the 500mb anomaly maps, it doesn’t look great… zonal for the most part but showing low heights over the top (+NAO/AO), troughing west of Hawaii, some SE ridging, etc. But the temp response is hardly indicative of a torch. I will note that the Euro ensemble has a more sizeable warmup D12-13 in the eastern US before going cold again. The GEFS never really does get the NE into any kind of above average temps. 
The last couple winters a 500mb pattern like that would be a pretty pessimistic outlook but this winter isn’t the last couple winters. It’s simply a colder pattern on our side of the pole despite the less than ideal 500mb look. Look where the big + temp anomalies are. That was Canada and the northern US most of last winter. This winter I think we can score out of a zonal pattern, presuming we can get some actual decent systems to develop out of it. Even if we do get an above average regime eventually I don’t really expect it to just warm up and rain. The first decent system to actually attack this persistent cold pattern is likely to be messy.
 

Nice post.

Agree wholeheartedly.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Another crazy snowfall oddity - the big story in CA has been the unfortunate and devastating wildfires recently. It's been incredibly dry which has aided the formation of those fires. One other note pertaining to the dry weather is the lack of Sierra snowfall. In fact, it appears as if much of the Sierra will likely make it until the 2nd week of February before the next chance of anything more than a inch or so if that. With that said...

When January ends, this appears to be the final monthly snowfall totals:

Pensacola Florida: 8.9"

Mammoth Lakes, California: 3.7" (Mammoth is at 108" for the season with almost all of that falling between October and December. That is only 39% of where they should be to date.)

[Superstorm]

I can’t get enough of that southern snow videos. That would have been a great chase to take to witness snow of that intensity in area that just don’t see it….once in a 100 year event.


.

[mahantango#1]

19 for the high today. It Didn't feel bad at all outside today. the sun was out, and no wind.

[Bubbler86]

56 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Here’s the ensembles today, using 5 and 7 day averages so things will be smoothed out some. 

GEFS v Euro 7 day average 500mb height anomalies (D8-15)

GEFS v Euro 5 day average temps (D10-15) 

 

At first glance looking at the 500mb anomaly maps, it doesn’t look great… zonal for the most part but showing low heights over the top (+NAO/AO), troughing west of Hawaii, some SE ridging, etc. But the temp response is hardly indicative of a torch. I will note that the Euro ensemble has a more sizeable warmup D12-13 in the eastern US before going cold again. The GEFS never really does get the NE into any kind of above average temps. 

The last couple winters a 500mb pattern like that would be a pretty pessimistic outlook but this winter isn’t the last couple winters. It’s simply a colder pattern on our side of the pole despite the less than ideal 500mb look. Look where the big + temp anomalies are. That was Canada and the northern US most of last winter. This winter I think we can score out of a zonal pattern, presuming we can get some actual decent systems to develop out of it. Even if we do get an above average regime eventually I don’t really expect it to just warm up and rain. The first decent system to actually attack this persistent cold pattern is likely to be messy.

 

Thanks for your thoughts.  I agree that step one is the qpf.  Even if they were rainers, they would help with the worsening drought.  I know one poster here who is not looking forward to summer droughts brought on by winter droughts.    We have had some nice cross country bowling ball snows in the past.  They will not be ice box like this time but at least something to track. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Happy happy hour on the 18z GFS for Groundhog Day!

[Bubbler86]

Lots of school delays again tomorrow.  I heard that the electric supplier for the 13 states near us set a winter record for output this AM. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/deep-freeze-propels-power-demand-135004710.html

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lots of school delays again tomorrow.  I heard that the electric supplier for the 13 states near us set a winter record for output this AM. 

I know of 12 people that have had frozen pipes the last 2 days 

[Ruin]

8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

It has only gone up 6 degrees here this AM.  At 3 right now.  MDT has gone up 17 (at 9) and THV has gone up 25 degrees (also at 9.)

Mdt over does it's temps cause of the airport tarmac I see the airport from my dad's and I have been as much as 8 colder on summer and winter 

[WmsptWx]

Down to nine degrees at 6:50 PM on day three of "I hate my entire life." Downstairs shitter pipe froze-up yesterday and the local plumber is in crisis mode as it is day two of still being on the queue, but I managed to thaw the fucker out and can flush again. Small win. 

 

When warm come?

[WmsptWx]

26 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Mdt over does it's temps cause of the airport tarmac I see the airport from my dad's and I have been as much as 8 colder on summer and winter 

If the tarmac temperature differential was real, then when USC fired Lane Kiffin on the tarmac, he should have burned up. 

[Jns2183]

This is humorous in retrospect

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[WmsptWx]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This is humorous in retrospect

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Maybe we have a few 100 degrees days at the end of the month lol

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This is humorous in retrospect

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If that deep orange had extended to Florida and NC I would have assumed it meant where the most snow would fall this month. 

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT is down to 5 as of 9 pm

[Itstrainingtime]

6 here in Maytown at 9:30pm.

[Bubbler86]

Pillow may be below 0 already.  4 at rou.

[Blizzard of 93]

59 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT is down to 5 as of 9 pm

MDT is down to 1 at 10 pm.

3rd straight below zero appears to be on the way.

[Jns2183]

That storm slamming into Ireland is forecast to get down to 938mb with 125+mph wind guests

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[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That storm slamming into Ireland is forecast to get down to 938mb with 125+mph wind guests

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Quick, drink all the Bushmills so it’s saved!

[canderson]

Low is 4. It’s already down to 1.