Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Jns2183]

Could be covid. Went around my family with flu symptoms. Feel better soon hopefully. 

Last week my daughter and my mom both tested positive for flu and negative for COVID. The flu is going around this area hard. I felt kinda sick for a day but recovered quickly. But I am weird. My exposure to the public has over years super primed my immune system so much that I have an autoimmune

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[mitchnick]

Most boring 12z runs since I don't know when.

[MAG5035]

Well we ended up getting the clear, calm night last night I expected tonight and low temps definitely overachieved, showing what rad cooling and a fresh snowpack can do. My low temp here was -4.5ºF. 

Some low temps around here I saw from the Mesowest network

Hollsopple (between Johnstown and Somerset): -22ºF

Phillipsburg:  -16ºF

Claysburg: -15ºF

Bedford County Airport (KHMZ): -15ºF

 

I expect similar or perhaps colder numbers tonight, though perhaps more towards the western stations. Weak shortwave passage earlier this evening might make late clearing in the Sus Valley and hold temps up a few degrees compared to last night. But we’ll see. 

 

[2001kx]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

My step kid goes to Curwensville. Grampian is outside of Curwensville. There's nothing there. 

my weather station had me at -16 this morning

The pic i posted in my car of -17 was in houtzdale

On my 70 mile drive this morning it varied from -3 to -17 

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Most boring 12z runs since I don't know when.

We are on bowling ball watch.  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are on bowling ball watch.  

strike or spare?

[str8liner]

32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well we ended up getting the clear, calm night last night I expected tonight and low temps definitely overachieved, showing what rad cooling and a fresh snowpack can do. My low temp here was -4.5ºF. 

Some low temps around here I saw from the Mesowest network

Hollsopple (between Johnstown and Somerset): -22ºF

Phillipsburg:  -16ºF

Claysburg: -15ºF

Bedford County Airport (KHMZ): -15ºF

 

I expect similar or perhaps colder numbers tonight, though perhaps more towards the western stations. Weak shortwave passage earlier this evening might make late clearing in the Sus Valley and hold temps up a few degrees compared to last night. But we’ll see. 

 

Wow that is crazy. At 8:30AM I had -9 on my digital temp gun so I guess that must have been accurate.

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, paweather said:

strike or spare?

Gutter right now. 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lancaster's "other" official station at MU recorded a low of 6. That's 11 degrees warmer than MDT. That's remarkable.

Every local news outlet that I watch/see/follow in the Lancaster area refers to the MU readings as Lancaster's temp. Is there any other example of an area's official temp not being at the airport? LNS is never referred to by outlets that I see around here. @Mount Joy Snowman @pasnownut @Superstorm - do you have any clarification on this? 

Interesting. What happened to the urban heat island that people always complain about at MDT?

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Last week my daughter and my mom both tested positive for flu and negative for COVID. The flu is going around this area hard. I felt kinda sick for a day but recovered quickly. But I am weird. My exposure to the public has over years super primed my immune system so much that I have an autoimmune

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

rippin through my fam and friends as well.  Wife just came home and said, "i've got it, headed straight to bed".  She didnt thank me for bringin it home from the cabin.  I've been fighting it for a few weeks, buddy at the cabin went full on flu, and that pushed my immune system to the break point.  I sound like hell, but feel better.  Good luck to all.  

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, 2001kx said:

my weather station had me at -16 this morning

The pic i posted in my car of -17 was in houtzdale

On my 70 mile drive this morning it varied from -3 to -17 

I actually do not have a thermometer here. I was going off whatever the airport had going on lol.

[MAG5035]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Most boring 12z runs since I don't know when.

We really haven’t had all the pieces in place at one time to wind up any kind of a big storm all winter despite us achieving deep winter status. Our two signature events this month were a weakening southern stream wave attacking a confluent pattern and this past event being a fairly vigorous wave along an arctic front. It has continued to be a dry pattern. I’ve got about 10” for the month, with zero rain. So take into account these have all been higher ratio snowfalls I’d be lucky to have 0.75” of liquid equivalent for the month so far. 

The only real precip opportunity I see right now is that Sunday/Monday timeframe where mainly the GFS has been playing around with some kind of an overrrunning type system. Guidance raises heights in the SE in that timeframe into a really flat SE ridge, though I would hardly call it such. It does moderate temps back to about seasonal and would set the boundary for systems to run through here and not say, the Gulf Coast. Whether there’s anything depends on if any energy gets ejected out of the SW, and both GFS/Euro seem mostly content to keep that closed off low there most of next week. Not real keen on anything else otherwise. There looks like some reinforcing cold next week at times centered on New England (still keeping us seasonal or below), but we’re on the backside of the mean trough. Highly progressive northern branch that is too far NE for clippers here with the sprawling western ridge and +NAO/AO regime downstream. Not much opportunity for phasing if anything does eject out of the SW. 

Beyond that I really haven’t seen a lot for me to jump on the complete pattern reversal bandwagon yet. Certainly it looks like a period of above average heights/temps is coming likely near or during the first week of February. But the longevity of that kind of a pattern change is going to depend on some things. Some MJO forecasts completely avoid 4-5-6 or at least phase 5 and others really lower the magnitude eventually into the null phase. If we don’t go full bore and stall out in the those phases, I don’t expect the influence to be such that we have a heat wave and gigantic eastern ridge for any extended amount of time. It will be milder though, regular teleconnections other than the WPO are not particularly great looking. But what we do have that we didn’t last year is much colder air in Canada. That could help press the boundary in a more borderline setup. Certainly a more active storm track would be beneficial snow or not. Still much to resolve out that far. 

[canderson]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. What happened to the urban heat island that people always complain about at MDT?

Perhaps the frozen river with sedan-sized icebergs 13’ away from the ASOS censor is to blame. 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Perhaps the frozen river with sedan-sized icebergs 13’ away from the ASOS censor is to blame. 

That's what I figured. The proximity to the hot river waters probably elevate minimum temperatures locally compared to other locations in the warmer parts of the year.

[Bubbler86]

Wonder if any of the snow in York/Lanco is reaching the ground? 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wonder if any of the snow in York/Lanco is reaching the ground? 

Doubtful, given the extremely low dewpoints and minimal intensity of what is falling to begin with [looks like little more than flurries even at the height of the radar beam].

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Doubtful, given the extremely low dewpoints and minimal intensity of what is falling to begin with [looks like little more than flurries even at the height of the radar beam].

The low DP's are why I questioned it though that streak located here seemed a little more consolidated.

 

Edit-NWS actually makes mention of this in their zones but references later this evening. 

 

 

[Superstorm]

New Orleans area has to be see at least a foot by now.

Saw a report of 8.7” from 4 hours ago.

Unreal.


.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The low DP's are why I questioned it though that streak located here seemed a little more consolidated.

 

 

Yes, I see that. Judging from the hole around the LWX radar, I suspect it's all (or mostly all) aloft. You can even some of the heavier returns southwest of the radar site, especially in the early part of this loop, suggesting the heavier virga likely extends over the radar site but the beam is too low in those areas to detect it. With that said, the hole does look to be shrinking, which would suggest some of the snowflakes are making it further down into the atmosphere. But this is only like 10, maybe 15, dbz returns.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

New Orleans area has to be see at least a foot by now.

Saw a report of 8.7” from 4 hours ago.

Unreal.


.

It is ripping there right now Awesome!

[anotherman]

Nothing falling in Mount Joy currently. Dew points are insanely low.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Nothing falling in Mount Joy currently. Dew points are insanely low.

Yea, that was my wonderment.  I do see some DP's a bit higher over Lanco but still questionable.   Like I edited on my post  the zones actually have mention of something making it to the ground but they pinpoint later.  Not going to be too exciting either way.   OC, MD looking like it could take on some accum's though. 

.

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wonder if any of the snow in York/Lanco is reaching the ground? 

Have not seen a single flake here.

[Itstrainingtime]

Elliott looking ahead:

The moderating trend that begins late this week should continue into early February. However, it will be very gradual and come with a few setbacks. The aforementioned, high-latitude blocking over Greenland should finally vanish this weekend and then not return for the foreseeable future. In addition, MJO phases 3 and 4.. as well as their "lags".. support a massive, northward bulge in the Jet Stream over the Central and Eastern States. The mean, Jet Stream ridge currently centered along the West Coast of North America will gradually retrograde into the Bering Sea over the next 1-2 weeks. In turn, the core of the coldest air should also retrograde north and west, ultimately ending up in the northern Plains, northern Rockies and western Canada by early February. The infamous "Southeast Ridge" so typical of La Niña Februaries will then face little resistance to "flare up" along the Eastern Seaboard. Thus, I still anticipate a significantly milder February with above-average temperatures

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Have not seen a single flake here.

Nothing here at work.

Well...some in the office might say otherwise if by flake includes me...

[MAG5035]

17 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

New Orleans area has to be see at least a foot by now.

Saw a report of 8.7” from 4 hours ago.

Unreal.


.

Some of their 511 cameras look like what you’d see in Buffalo. Good thing the Super Bowl isn’t this week haha. 

[Albedoman]

29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We really haven’t had all the pieces in place at one time to wind up any kind of a big storm all winter despite us achieving deep winter status. Our two signature events this month were a weakening southern stream wave attacking a confluent pattern and this past event being a fairly vigorous wave along an arctic front. It has continued to be a dry pattern. I’ve got about 10” for the month, with zero rain. So take into account these have all been higher ratio snowfalls I’d be lucky to have 0.75” of liquid equivalent for the month so far. 

The only real precip opportunity I see right now is that Sunday/Monday timeframe where mainly the GFS has been playing around with some kind of an overrrunning type system. Guidance raises heights in the SE in that timeframe into a really flat SE ridge, though I would hardly call it such. It does moderate temps back to about seasonal and would set the boundary for systems to run through here and not say, the Gulf Coast. Whether there’s anything depends on if any energy gets ejected out of the SW, and both GFS/Euro seem mostly content to keep that closed off low there most of next week. Not real keen on anything else otherwise. There looks like some reinforcing cold next week at times centered on New England (still keeping us seasonal or below), but we’re on the backside of the mean trough. Highly progressive northern branch that is too far NE for clippers here with the sprawling western ridge and +NAO/AO regime downstream. Not much opportunity for phasing if anything does eject out of the SW. 

Beyond that I really haven’t seen a lot for me to jump on the complete pattern reversal bandwagon yet. Certainly it looks like a period of above average heights/temps is coming likely near or during the first week of February. But the longevity of that kind of a pattern change is going to depend on some things. Some MJO forecasts completely avoid 4-5-6 or at least phase 5 and others really lower the magnitude eventually into the null phase. If we don’t go full bore and stall out in the those phases, I don’t expect the influence to be such that we have a heat wave and gigantic eastern ridge for any extended amount of time. It will be milder though, regular teleconnections other than the WPO are not particularly great looking. But what we do have that we didn’t last year is much colder air in Canada. That could help press the boundary in a more borderline setup. Certainly a more active storm track would be beneficial snow or not. Still much to resolve out that far. 

Your post indicates only emphasizes one thing -CONTINUED SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION- and a bad one at that. Without heavy  snowfalls in the next few weeks, we are in a world of hurt. As a professional hydrologist, the continued freezing temps with  little to no snow melt,  huge amounts of snow being sublimated and the ground water table falling because of no recharge  with frozen soils and well pumping, we are in serious trouble for this spring. I hope state officials are aware of this problem because the media sure as hell does not care. They only care about the insignificant snow events and the bitter cold. and how it affects social issues and event.  When peoples wells run dry, then maybe they will spend time on water supply issues.

[Albedoman]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott looking ahead:

The moderating trend that begins late this week should continue into early February. However, it will be very gradual and come with a few setbacks. The aforementioned, high-latitude blocking over Greenland should finally vanish this weekend and then not return for the foreseeable future. In addition, MJO phases 3 and 4.. as well as their "lags".. support a massive, northward bulge in the Jet Stream over the Central and Eastern States. The mean, Jet Stream ridge currently centered along the West Coast of North America will gradually retrograde into the Bering Sea over the next 1-2 weeks. In turn, the core of the coldest air should also retrograde north and west, ultimately ending up in the northern Plains, northern Rockies and western Canada by early February. The infamous "Southeast Ridge" so typical of La Niña Februaries will then face little resistance to "flare up" along the Eastern Seaboard. Thus, I still anticipate a significantly milder February with above-average temperatures

 and no rain or snow  well enjoy your drought folks with the mild temps

[Superstorm]

What does he mean by setbacks?

No precipitation?


.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 and no rain or snow  well enjoy your drought folks with the mild temps

Some of us talk about it here, so it is not being ignored.   Stream Flow in PA is borderline bad but marginal at best,