mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What did I "Tell you" LOL. Edit oh the snow storm on the 31st. It's a great storm, but even the AI is all over the place past 5 days. We need that to hold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm going to post this off the 6z AI because Bubbler and Bliz haven't told me "I told you so"" enough. Lol Move it forward from that hour. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282 That potential storm on the 31st on the AI looks sweet. The GFS last night had something similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Light snow for the past half hour in York, but not laying on anything yet. What time does the main part of the storm start? It's definitely started here in Hanover 2 minutes ago. Just need temp to drop some for real accumulations to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Steady NE wind with probably 1.5-2 mile visibility pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Good size flakes with the initial snow I. Marysville. Grass caved & car tops are underway their caving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I like the angle of the precip approach on radar. We didn’t miss anything & don’t have to wait. This is a way to max out this storm’s potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CASH_COOP Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's definitely started here in Hanover 2 minutes ago. Just need temp to drop some for real accumulations to begin. I went from 33.7 to 32.6 the last 30 min. It’s trying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 About to head out for breakfast. Anyone need anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NAM less "holy". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We have reached the stage where if one posts a model and it is bad, retorts come back about nowcasting, but if good like this is for Lanco and York down to near Adams, people rejoice. Nam12 and 3 hammer Lanco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Following the general 4" to 8" of snow forecast today we will see very cold weather for the rest of the week. Watch for areas of blowing and drifting snow tonight and tomorrow across the many open fields etc. across our area. Temperatures till at least Thursday will not escape the teens for high temperatures. Morning lows will be within a couple of degrees above or below zero Tuesday through Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's definitely started here in Hanover 2 minutes ago. Just need temp to drop some for real accumulations to begin. I lived in Hanover for a year back in the 80's..great town but it had mixing problems..Too close to the Maryland border..Hope you get a decent amount today Mitch..good luck. Snowing in Dillsburg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Moderate borderline sn plus here but still above freezing so wasting a bit now. We would probably have a half inch at this point if colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 I'd be lying if I said this didn't make me nervous, as I've seen it before. The sun visible in the clouds at the onset of the storm. A few times, it was the the harbinger of a bust that ended up being way less than what was originally forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, canderson said: About to head out for breakfast. Anyone need anything? 2 gallons of milk, 2 dozen eggs, and 2 loaves of bread. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, paweather said: 2 gallons of milk, 2 dozen eggs, and 2 loaves of bread. Thanks! You forgot the toilet tissue! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Voyager said: I'd be lying if I said this didn't make me nervous, as I've seen it before. The sun visible in the clouds at the onset of the storm. A few times, it was the the harbinger of a bust that ended up being way less than what was originally forecast. Nah, it's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Flakes are the size of quarters, half an inch has fallen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Flakes are the size of quarters, half an inch has fallen so far. My flakes size is increasing but temp at or just under 34, which is making accumulation impossible other than roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It’s good in my opinion that we need to cool a couple of degrees as the good precip gets underway. The cold push has slowed just a bit, which should keep the thump snow boundary near the LSV. If the cold had pushed more, we could have been fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Lighter now -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: My flakes size is increasing but temp at or just under 34, which is making accumulation impossible other than roofs. The freezing line has not moved much yet on the meso analysis. The cold is coming but yea we need the qpf to stay around for it (down here.). What did not happen was much cold air being pulled down yet. I am confident it happens but we are indeed wasting accums right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nah, it's coming. I hope so. Sometimes sky conditions fortel what's to come. I remember a good number of years ago where the day prior, we were sitting on the edge of a cirrus deck that had blue skies to the north and west and clouds to the south and east. We ended up getting 2" out of a warned storm where Allentown and points south got double digit totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s good in my opinion that we need to cool a couple of degrees as the good precip gets underway. The cold push has slowed just a bit, which should keep the thump snow boundary near the LSV. If the cold had pushed more, we could have been fringed. Models have continued for a few runs to show the best stripe. I've been on the southern end and hope it doesn't shift von me. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: My flakes size is increasing but temp at or just under 34, which is making accumulation impossible other than roofs. My temp is 29.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The freezing line has not moved much yet on the meso analysis. The cold is coming but yea we need the qpf to stay around for it (down here.). What did not happen was much cold air being pulled down yet. I am confident it happens but we are indeed wasting accums right now. Heavy stuff doesn't get here until noon I believe. These are mood flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, mahantango#1 said: My temp is 29.8 That explains it. Where are you exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, mitchnick said: Heavy stuff doesn't get here until noon I believe. These are mood flakes. Sure but we have wasted a half to one full inch now. It is snowing quite well. I am not changing my predict here. Still near 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That explains it. Where are you exactly? Upper Dauphin County about 3 miles south west of Pillow along the Mahantango Creek. I can throw a stone into Northumberland County from my property along the creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Upper Dauphin County about 3 miles south west of Pillow along the Mahantango Creek. I can throw a stone into Northumberland County from my property along the creek. West of MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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