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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Nam 12 has not been able to show qpf properly for this system. Beyond my salary table to understand why.  3k has been fine with qpf depictions.

Yeah, I know it's been "holy" all week. Maybe because it's a Sunday storm...lol

I know that won't verify as shown, it was more tongue in cheek and a bad attempt at being humorous, just like my quip above.

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There is an old saying/rule of thumb about follow the “finger” of initial snow breaking out and it will tip its hand and point to where the best dynamics are and where the best snows may be. So far it looks to be right over many of ours heads in the LSV. The fact steady snow has already broken out ahead of many of the models simulated radars is a good sign. I also have a straight north wind and moisture coming SSW looks like a pretty good FGEN zone establishing overhead. I am cautiously optimistic so farb6d10645750867fc2af1aa0b87fa441c.jpg


.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below  and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I  would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

The run I looked at was the latest on WB.

Let’s take it a week or 2 at a time.

Remember just 2 weeks ago, the good  pattern was supposed to break down around the 20th, but now we are starting our coldest week yet with a Warning snow event.

Long way to go for the seasonal trend.

Also, near normal to slightly above temps can still produce snow through mid February with well timed events.

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53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This fact is why I do not totally get any fretting about weather in Feb.    We have had almost wall-to-wall winter temp wise but it has not been fully conducive to snow as most of us sit BN right now and the oppressively dry cold temps/next week are not helpful for snow as progged.  If one wants snow we need to mix up the equation and and hope for some good timing.   

Great post!

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The run I looked at was the latest on WB.

Let’s take it a week or 2 at a time.

Remember just 2 weeks ago, the good  pattern was supposed to break down around the 20th, but now we are starting our coldest week yet with a Warning snow event.

Long way to go for the seasonal trend.

Also, near normal to slightly above temps can still produce snow through mid February with well timed events.

When there's nothing imminent, I  like looking ahead. It would be ashame to not score over the next 2 weeks.

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm going to post this off the 6z AI because Bubbler and Bliz haven't told me "I told you so"" enough. Lol

Move it forward from that hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282

What did I "Tell you"  LOL.  Edit oh the snow storm on the 31st.  

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