Superstorm Posted Sunday at 12:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:34 PM First small area of qpf is rain here. 35 degrees. Radar looks fine to me. If we did not have modeling to know what is progged, it would not.So true, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 12:38 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:38 PM Good God Almighty. WTF is this???? Look at that Tamaqua snow hole. I know it won't be right () but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:52 PM I just realized I have a mix of lt rn and sn with snow increasing. Hmmmm. Early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:55 PM 16 minutes ago, Voyager said: Good God Almighty. WTF is this???? Look at that Tamaqua snow hole. I know it won't be right () but still... The Nam 12 has not been able to show qpf properly for this system. Beyond my salary table to understand why. 3k has been fine with qpf depictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:05 PM The low, very weak, is in N NC right now which is a nice nod to the models who did not fall for the Canadian (and early HRRR) tricks of having in it WV. 12Z HRRR shows light rain/mix changing to all snow across the southern parts of the forum 11AM-noonish. I believe the low position is perfect for us as dynamic cooling and the approaching front (referenced by Mitch) will cool us down just in time. Would be better for the Northern part of the forum if the low was a bit more amped but then Lanco would suffer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:07 PM Good morning, all. Sitting at 33/32 here and got .01” of rain yesterday. 1/3 of my backyard still has snow. I’ve felt Lancaster is the place to be all along so let’s see how it plays out. Time to have ourselves a snow day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted Sunday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:09 PM Already snowing here with a fresh coating and caved roads. Temps fell back rapidly the last several hours from still 33°F at 2am to 24°F right now. Would like to at least get to 3” with this one. I have yet to even verify an advisory level snowfall this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Already snowing here with a fresh coating and caved roads. Temps fell back rapidly the last several hours from still 33°F at 2am to 24°F right now. Would like to at least get to 3” with this one. I have yet to even verify an advisory level snowfall this winter. This fact is why I do not totally get any fretting about weather in Feb. We have had almost wall-to-wall winter temp wise but it has not been fully conducive to snow as most of us sit BN right now and the oppressively dry cold temps/next week are not helpful for snow as progged. If one wants snow we need to mix up the equation and and hope for some good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:14 PM Temp has dropped to 32 after going up to 36 during the night, There are now flakes in the air the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted Sunday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:15 PM Started as rain, quickly turned to snow a couple minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:17 PM 12Z HRRR was not great south of us as a dry slot and low movement from N NC put the fall line right along the M/D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:21 PM Getting reports from family in the lower end of Huntingdon county of sleet. Here it's just gray. Temperature is 21°F. They advised us overnight as to the snow, so I assume I'll cash-in on the benefits of being high up in the Alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z HRRR was not great south of us as a dry slot and low movement from N NC put the fall line right along the M/D. The Hrrr has never done well imby. I don't why, but it's either too high or too low. That said, 12z puts me at 4-4.5", which is in my 3-5" range. Maybe it'll be right this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:23 PM I bet we get a meso discussion for the area where these earlier returns are forming right now (in PA.) Also nice to see the blue circled area filling in the dry slot a bit (In VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:24 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The Hrrr has never done well imby. I don't why, but it's either too high or too low. That said, 12z puts me at 4-4.5", which is in my 3-5" range. Maybe it'll be right this time. I hate to model bash but those that say it cannot be used for qpf totals may be right....but I think it can be used for location of qpf, at least considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:27 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I hate to model bash but those that say it cannot be used for qpf totals may be right....but I think it can be used for location of qpf, at least considered. Radar shows it's snowing pretty good just to my north. And I mean "just." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:28 PM Snow has commenced here in Lebanon. Starting up much earlier than some models last night indicating it wouldnt start until midday. Every flake counts! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:30 PM Pigeon Hills are just to my north and are starting to get noticeably obscured. Need that precip southern edge to keep creeping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:31 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Radar shows it's snowing pretty good just to my north. And I mean "just." Yea, and if you look a the radar from the HRRR and Rap, the Rap is much more in tune with reality right now. The rap does not drop a lot of snow as it doe snot have much from a coastal CCB but just a comment to show the HRRR is did not initialize well so hard to take its numbers too seriously. Still light rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Pigeon Hills are just to my north and are starting to get noticeably obscured. Need that precip southern edge to keep creeping south. Up by ski roundtop and it’s been snowing for about an hour already a solid coating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliesmd Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:34 PM 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 1Yea, and if you look a the radar from the HRRR and Rap, the Rap is much more in tune with reality right now. The rap does not drop a lot of snow as it doe snot have much from a coastal CCB but just a comment to show the HRRR is did not initialize well so hard to take its numbers too seriously. Still light rain here Very light snow here in the boro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM Latest RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717Weather Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:35 PM 33.6/31.8 Had a brief period of drizzle now all light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:36 PM Great radar right here. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 01:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:36 PM 1 minute ago, philliesmd said: Very light snow here in the boro It is not even snowing up at Penn Mar. Just came down the hill. There are probably some flakes mixed ibn. Not worried about it, this stuff is bonus anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:37 PM Mod snow 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:39 PM 12z Hrrr does NOT have 12z soundings per Met in MA forum but they are in the 13z. So we may want to wait until the 13z run before taking it as current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM The snow that was falling earlier that produced a coating was like grains of fine sand, now there are big flakes coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:41 PM Rn has gone. All snow but flurries. Area of better precip moving north is just to my south and should fix my problem. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:41 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 12z Hrrr does NOT have 12z soundings per Met in MA forum but they are in the 13z. So we may want to wait until the 13z run before taking it as current. I’d say radar is exploding right now, not a bad look right now. Moderate snow now IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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