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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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Models have generally seemed to finally hone in overall on the extent and position of the main precip shield. RGEM/HRRR remains the most robust QPF wise. Blending with the other middle of the road stuff I think most of the Sus Valley will verify the warning on the low end, with 5” amounts being common. I think some 6-8” could be had but I think they’ll be focused in some kind of a narrow swath reliant on a band or two setting up. Back in central I think advisory placement and amounts (2-4”) look good. That area coincides more with 700mb being within the DGZ (temps 12ªC falling to around -15ªC at 700mb during best precip). So if a band of snow (and good 700mb lift) gets setup early in the central counties.. they would likely see good ratios. Maybe not 30:1 but 18-20:1 type ratios. I think that’s the path to overachieving for places like State College/Altoona/Clearfield. 

So my overall accum breakdown is this:

4-6” for the Sus Valley (H-burg/York/Lancaster)

4-6” for the Laurels (not including post event additional LES/upslope)

2-4” Altoona/State College/Lewistown/Williamsport 

3-5” Bedford/Fulton/Franklin

Around 2” in and around Clearfield and T-2” above I-80 (less as you go northwest). 

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Here are the entries I have as of 9PM:
Canderson 4.8" (.38)
Paweather 8.0" (.75)
GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)
AccuChris 5.2" (.47)
Jns2183 6.0" (.49)
Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)
Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)
DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)
Mount Joy Snowman (.53)
Less than 3 hours to get your guess in.
5.5"
.46

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, CASH_COOP said:

10PM Update

Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 5.5" (.46)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman 6.2" (.53)

mahantango#1 6.5" (.44)

Jonesy56 3.5" (.30)

MAG035 4.6" (.37)

I’ve seen too much over the years at MDT…

Put me down for 4.9” & .39 precip.

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Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 5.5" (.46)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman 6.2" (.53)

mahantango#1 6.5" (.44)

Jonesy56 3.5" (.30)

MAG035 4.6" (.37)

Blizzard of 93 4.9” (.39)

PghPirates27 4.2” (.42)

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13 minutes ago, CASH_COOP said:

Update

Canderson 4.8" (.38)

Paweather 8.0" (.75)

GrandmasterB 5.8" (.50)

AccuChris 5.2" (.47)

Jns2183 5.5" (.46)

Itstrainingtime 5.1" (.43)

Cash_Coop 5.5" (.39)

DDweatherman 6.2" (.51)

Mount Joy Snowman 6.2" (.53)

mahantango#1 6.5" (.44)

Jonesy56 3.5" (.30)

MAG035 4.6" (.37)

Blizzard of 93 4.9” (.39)

lol, you forgot @WmsptWx putting down a T for MDT

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12 hours ago, CASH_COOP said:

I was thinking about putting together a snowfall contest for HIA like I’ve done in the past.   Guess the official snow amount at airport and use qpf as a tie breaker.   If interested in submitting a guess, “like” this post so I can gage if it’s worth putting together.   

4.20” on .42 QPF

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