Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had no idea that there’s a 6z Ukie available.

www.pivotalweather.com

 

 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had no idea that there’s a 6z Ukie available.

There are even Ukie ensembles that go out 198hrs every 6 hours! 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Right, and I am close to that 4" line.  I also think Kuch may be a tad high on the UK depict but not getting into that convo.  The point was it was not the 6-10" of the models in the "higher camp".  If forecasting just off the GFS, AI and Canadian the totals would need to be 6-10 I think. 

I got you in the wrong spot then! Lol

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I got you in the wrong spot then! Lol

I usually get just to the left of the elevated total area.    In fairness it was higher than I quoted when I said 2-3 as it was closer to the 4" line.  

[Voyager]

Tamaqua bullseye on the 6z RDPS. This is the correct model and outcome... 

[Bubbler86]

NWS going below me.  No surprise there

 

Confidence is increasing in a period of accumulating snow across
the south and east Sunday as a wave of low pressure develops
along the thermal boundary along the North Carolina coastline.
Given how broad the trough is, there is above normal uncertainty
in the exact placement of the axis of heaviest snow, but as of
right now model consensus is for 2-4 inches of snow accumulation
across the southern tier and the Lower Susq Valley on Sunday. It
should be noted, however, that the reasonable worst case
scenario would be a sfc low developing faster and tracking
closer to the Mid Atlantic coast, which could but us in a
position where the Lower Susq sees warning criteria totals (5+
inches). For now, the chc of warning criteria snow totals
remains just below 30%, and it is more likely that we would end
up hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory in the coming days.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 23 with .7" of snowfall.  Currently melting it down so will have that later.  Did MDT only report .2"?  Glad to see all the overnight action.  This would be quite the score for the Canadians.  Does the NAM plan on joining the party anytime soon?  Eagles game looking more and more interesting ha.  Didn't see it posted yet but CTP already has a map out.....

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 23 with .7" of snowfall.  Currently melting it down so will have that later.  Did MDT only report .2"?  Glad to see all the overnight action.  This would be quite the score for the Canadians.  Does the NAM plan on joining the party anytime soon?  Eagles game looking more and more interesting ha.  Didn't see it posted yet but CTP already has a map out.....

The official report I see does say .2 with no snow since midnight last night/today. 

[paweather]

Overnight runs look awesome thanks everyone for your thoughts. 

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Right, and I am close to that 4" line.  I also think Kuch may be a tad high on the UK depict but not getting into that convo.  The point was it was not the 6-10" of the models in the "higher camp".  If forecasting just off the GFS, AI and Canadian the totals would need to be 6-10 I think. 

I think 3 to 5 would be a good call for us at this point just looking at all the available guidance and qpf amounts from the various models. Not buying the high totals from the Canadians.

Rgem had us getting a foot+  12 hours before the 1/6 storm and we know how that went.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think 3 to 5 would be a good call for us at this point just looking at all the available guidance and qpf amounts from the various models. Not buying the high totals from the Canadians.

Rgem had us getting a foot+  12 hours before the 1/6 storm and we know how that went.

Yea, plus going with the high one and no scientific reason why is fraught for a bust :-).   I read the wrong GFS this AM which made my first post sound less optimistic.   I read on the MA forum that almost half the EPS members have us getting nothing which is a lot for 48 hours out so not laughing off the NAM either.     I won't use mean snow maps seriously but will take a bunch of members as a sign to wait before pulling too many triggers!   The Gefs and Geps were a bit more smoothed I believe. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The HRRR looks positioned well at the end of its run.....

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Because why not.......national high of 78 at Tolleson, AZ and low of -20 at Gunnison, CO.

[AccuChris]

6z Euro AI QPF map steady as she be…


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[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

6z Euro AI QPF map steady as she be…


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I wish we could see low positions or at least snow maps to eliminate mixing/rain but for all snow, that is probably more than the rgem right now.     Nam rolling. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

NWS going below me.  No surprise there

 

Confidence is increasing in a period of accumulating snow across
the south and east Sunday as a wave of low pressure develops
along the thermal boundary along the North Carolina coastline.
Given how broad the trough is, there is above normal uncertainty
in the exact placement of the axis of heaviest snow, but as of
right now model consensus is for 2-4 inches of snow accumulation
across the southern tier and the Lower Susq Valley on Sunday. It
should be noted, however, that the reasonable worst case
scenario would be a sfc low developing faster and tracking
closer to the Mid Atlantic coast, which could but us in a
position where the Lower Susq sees warning criteria totals (5+
inches). For now, the chc of warning criteria snow totals
remains just below 30%, and it is more likely that we would end
up hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory in the coming days.

My NWS forecast now is 3-5".

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

My NWS forecast now is 3-5".

That was their AFD, did not check zones.  Checking now, mine and MDT says 2-4 fwiw.  I think the zones are automated/AI though.   The Map MJS posted is the ground truth which was low and par for the course with them. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Nam should be  better IMO after seeing the panels up to 42. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam should be  better IMO after seeing the panels up to 42. 

Agreed.  It's slooooowly coming around.

 

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That was their AFD, did not check zones.  Checking now, mine and MDT says 2-4 fwiw.  I think the zones are automated/AI though.   The Map MJS posted is the ground truth which was low and par for the course with them. 

 

Yeah I think we can expect some ticks upward if the guidance keeps coming in robust over the next 12 hours. 

[ChescoWx]

Here in Chester County, we have started 2025 off as the 9th coldest January in the last 45 years. Only 2 days so far this year have featured above normal temperatures. Today and tomorrow could be the last above normal days through the end of this month. Some light rain tomorrow that could start as a bit of snow before the main snow event looks to arrive by late Sunday morning. The snow should stop by later Sunday evening. While it is snowing on Sunday temperatures will slowly fall during the afternoon into the teens by Sunday evening. During the day Monday temperatures will struggle to escape the mid to upper teens across the county. We will then see lows within a couple of degrees of zero both Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agreed.  It's slooooowly coming around.

 

Yeah I think we can expect some ticks upward if the guidance keeps coming in robust over the next 12 hours. 

It may be slightly better but not going to be what we want yet seeing panel 54. 

[Bubbler86]

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

The NAM is still losted

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The NAM is slowly starting to pick up on the overall evolution.  I would wager by 0z tonight it falls in line, or close to it.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

The NAM is still losted

3k is better for you guys

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

The NAM is still losted

It is not THAT much different than the Icon and Euro.    Similar progression of a low off shore.   Just less qpf.  

 

 

[AccuChris]

The NAM is still losted

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out


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[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out


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Like I said I would not call it alone, it is not far off from the other less amped models.  As the Pitt poster pointed out, better resolution on 3K picking up qpf better.   

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out


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100% agree. This is not the NAM we know. 

[AccuChris]

12z 3km NAM better. Actually starts this Sunday morning on the arctic boundary and looks like what the 12z HRRR was indicating earlier. I suspect this will continue to get in line in subsequent runs


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