Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM 45 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z NAM still trying to show some LSV snow love . The NAM has been very persistent in wanting us to have something more than mood flakes tomorrow. Other hi-res models seem to be catching on a bit as well. Temps should be sufficient for stickage, even midday. Ground should be nice and cold from these nights leading up to it. Tomorrow could be a bit of a surprise day if we're lucky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM My coal usage so far this month is 8.33% higher than compared to the same time period of January 2024. It has been a cold month so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: My coal usage so far this month is 8.33% higher than compared to the same time period of January 2024. It has been a cold month so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM 23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Tomorrow could be a bit of a surprise day if we're lucky. It's been a long time since I've been lucky. It will very much be a surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's been a long time since I've been lucky. It will very much be a surprise. It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:44 PM Icon mostly a miss for Sunday but it had lost it at 6Z so this is a positive step. Eagles game still snowed on. The low forms a better signature a bit south east of where we would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:47 PM 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less! Friction creates warmth tho. Someone’s a bad salesman! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM GFS has a very delayed piece of energy forming/strengthening on the front, on to the Gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:12 PM Gem has the trailing low much further west than the GFS and starts us off with mixed precip (snow west) Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:12 PM Actually too far west for the LSV Sunday afternoon. Rain in SE parts. A rainy Eagles game as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:16 PM 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:21 PM 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 10:1 Blizz digging out from a half foot while I "enjoy" a slushy coating. Sounds about right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Blizz digging out from a half foot while I "enjoy" a slushy coating. Sounds about right! I predict a WB Kuch map before the day is out...that shows closer to a 10". LOL. The one big difference I see between the GFS and CMC is the vort is on the 90 hour map where the GFS has a well defined 996 slp off the VA coast while the CMC just has an weak wave at the same time. This allows the trailing piece of energy to form much faster and father west on the CMC due to spacing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:32 PM Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro. GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though. People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM The tracking has not been boring. Looks like an active pattern with some chances over the next 5-10 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:57 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: That's almost 10 degree difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: That's almost 10 degree difference. 27 -28% drop. A big difference from the 8-9% raise in usage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:14 PM Despite almost full sun, a brutal 21 with a Windchill of 4 for nooners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Late on the nooners here, but I'm up to 28 currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Wednesday at 05:20 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:20 PM 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 10:1 Hell of a cutoff there. As depicted, I'll be loading water with a foot on the ground and taking it to Allentown where they barely have an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted Wednesday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:25 PM Going back to today's 6Z GFS, I'm surprised there's been virtually no comments about the upcoming cold wave following just behind whatever storm hits our region Sunday afternoon and evening. The GFS takes our 500mb thickness down to below 500 decameters by Tuesday morning, bottoming out around 494 dm and then holding near 500 until early Wednesday morning. When you combine 850 temperatures of -20 to -25 C with thicknesses below 500dm you have high temperatures no higher than the low teens or even below 10 above, with lows of zero to 5 below F, not taking into account any possible wind and wind chill. The other wild thing is the Miller A later in the week bombs out, especially when reaching our latitude and on up to north of Maine. It takes a 996 low and bombs it down to an unbelievable 947mb! That's 15mb lower than the superstorm of '93. The next 2 weeks look like they're going to be wild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:31 PM In contrast to the Gem, the UK has a much weaker and later starting wave that misses some of the LSV for Sunday. The Gem is mostly on its own right now pending the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM 12z Euro was very “meh” in terms of snowfall. Sundays event is southeast like the UKMET was, and offers no other precip chances through the rest of the run….just cold and then moderation late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:12 PM 3 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro was very “meh” in terms of snowfall. Sundays event is southeast like the UKMET was, and offers no other precip chances through the rest of the run….just cold and then moderation late in the period . Definitely the trend at 12Z. Outside the Gem outlier, the wave did not have enough room to form in time for it to be a consequential system for us. But, it is such a convoluted situation, we are just watching models for fun at this point. So many things can change in the next 72 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Wednesday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:14 PM Definitely the trend at 12Z. Outside the Gem outlier, the wave did not have enough room to form in time for it to be a consequential system for us. But, it is such a convoluted situation, we are just watching models for fun at this point. So many things can change in the next 72 hours. Absolutely. I would not write off the Sunday system until at least the 0z Saturday runs that come in Friday night. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro. GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though. People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours. That TX ice storm has been modeled for a few days now. It’s quite alarming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:44 PM 8 minutes ago, canderson said: That TX ice storm has been modeled for a few days now. It’s quite alarming I think this is a potentially exciting/alarming time from Texas East to S VA including Ala, NC, SC, much of GA and even the Florida panhandle. There is definitely a precedent for us to get skunked due to the PV, to be determined, but that system 7 days from now is a high potential one for the South... as you alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:56 PM 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: Going back to today's 6Z GFS, I'm surprised there's been virtually no comments about the upcoming cold wave following just behind whatever storm hits our region Sunday afternoon and evening. The GFS takes our 500mb thickness down to below 500 decameters by Tuesday morning, bottoming out around 494 dm and then holding near 500 until early Wednesday morning. When you combine 850 temperatures of -20 to -25 C with thicknesses below 500dm you have high temperatures no higher than the low teens or even below 10 above, with lows of zero to 5 below F, not taking into account any possible wind and wind chill. The other wild thing is the Miller A later in the week bombs out, especially when reaching our latitude and on up to north of Maine. It takes a 996 low and bombs it down to an unbelievable 947mb! That's 15mb lower than the superstorm of '93. The next 2 weeks look like they're going to be wild. Au contraire Carlise! I made a few comments just yesterday on the 540 line dipping to the Gulf, the extreme 850s over the Commonwealth, and the daily min records at MDT for Mon thru Wed. Bitter cold on the way! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Wednesday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:37 PM 18z HRRR says many of us are in for a coating to an inch tomorrow, perhaps a good bit more for our western and northern friends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Wednesday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:18 PM Icon opens 18Z with another miss and the trailing wave is much too late to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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