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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


Voyager
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51 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Ugh...next Tuesday.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 1.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 12

i go from a high of 16 low of 3 next day a high of 33 lol

 

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18 minutes ago, Ruin said:

i go from a high of 16 low of 3 next day a high of 33 lol

 

I hope. My job SUCKS when it gets down into the single digits. It starts to suck under about 25, but it really sucks below 10.

The life of a bulk water truck driver...

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1*dmbNkD5D-u45r44go_cf0g.png
 
 
 
 
 
Wxrisk
 
3 min read
·
7 hours ago
 

2

 

AN EARLY LOOK AT JAN 19–20….

Here I am going to briefly take a look at the promising January 19- 20 snowstorm /event since it is only 5 days away. Now I know what some of you will say — it is too early. The people who say that generally are not meteorologists. Remember the purpose of issuing the weather forecast is to get the information out to people businesses organizations that need it BEFORE the event begins

Yes there is ANOTHER potentially another more significant system coming JAN 22–23 but lets just deal with this first one.

THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS

1 . The Arctic cold front that develops in the Midwest as Polar Jet and the southern (subtropical) jet stream phase and create gargantuan Trough in the Midwest that will pull down the Arctic air. The precipitation with this front will be primarily rain from Alabama to Virginia and up the
I-95 corridor Saturday afternoon /evening. The rain will turn to snow in the mountains of Pennsylvania/ upstate and western New York/ and northern New England late Saturday.

2. The southern end of the cold front is going to stall and LOW pressure is going to form on the front on Sunday January 19.

The LOW will intensify as it tracks in a NE direction. According to the latest data the Arctic air will reach into northern and western North Carolina/ most of Virginia (except for Hampton Roads) / central and eastern Maryland and Delaware before the main precipitation begins with the coastal storm.

 

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3. This will result in at least a few inches of snow -possibly several. the snow band will extend into Delaware New Jersey and probably into NYC and southeast New England from Sunday evening into Monday morning.

4. This is going to be a fast moving event and much will depend on how close the LOW tracks to the coast once it leaves coastal North Carolina.

IF the coastal LOW tracks ina ENE diection the heaviest snows will probably bypass Philly /NJ /and NYC. But if the LOW track MORE ne than these areas could see a accumulating snowfall on Sunday night.

5. Timing is everything here.

Right now most of the model data has the cold air getting into the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and midday several hours before the coastal LOW begins to spread its precipitation into the Middle Atlantic region. But this is a variable: any delay of the arrival of the cold front even by 6 hours will make a huge difference with respect to where the snow is going to fall.

 

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6. The model data as you can see here shows that the temperatures at 850mb (1 mile above the ground) will be cold enough to support all snow as far south Petersburg and near the North Carolina Virginia border -but not in Hampton Roads. The thick BLACK LINE that I have drawn in on these upper air Maps show the rain snow line — any precip falling north of the black line as snow.

 

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7. Behind the system howling North winds will bring in even more Arctic air on Monday January 20. In fact Max temperature is my only go up 5° or so across the entire Middle Atlantic/ Ohio Valley /and New England regions on January 20. If there is snow on the ground in Virginia /Maryland/ Delaware /West Virginia/ northern North Carolina readings could drop below zero on either the morning of the 21st or the 22nd

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Our well below normal temperature wise January continues with only a brief respite Friday and Saturday before the coldest weather of the year arrives next Monday through Wednesday. We finally do moderate to near normal temperatures (upper 30's) by Friday and Saturday. Precipitation wise we have an increasing chance of some light snow tomorrow PM that should accumulate no more than a coating to an inch. Then showers on Saturday before a chance of some light snow or flurries by Sunday afternoon.

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Met Winter Mid Way Point for Middletown

 

Monthly Temp Deviation: 

Dec -1.3

Jan -2.4 (2 of last 3 days have actually been Above Normal surprisingly so this number is not as low as some would think) 

Snow Totals/Deviation: 

Normal Snow by Jan 14: 7.8"

Total Snow so far for Met Winter 24/25:  5" 

Snow Deviation: -2.8"

QPF Totals/Deviation:

Normal QPF by Jan 14: 4.77"

Total qpf so far for Met Winter 24/25: 3.9"

QPF Deviation: -.87"

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