Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[paweather]

Just now, Ruin said:

Jesus these models flip flop more then a fish out of water

It’s been like this since 1993 or whenever the internet started.

[mitchnick]

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[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Jesus these models flip flop more then a fish out of water

Just figurin that out huhh....

This is the norm and has been for as long as i can remember.

If on the fringe, yeah I get the frustration, but me thinks anyone between rt 30 and I 80 corridor shouldnt be surprised by whatever transpires model wise today

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

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add it to "the keep pile"

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

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But I was told to put a fork in it?

Not you

[paweather]

It’s game time looking at the radar in the Midwest I don’t see much north trend to it

[AccuChris]

CTP had an interesting take and write-up this morning about the ongoing disagreement within the models. They point to the more suppressed models focusing on a mid-level vort in northern New England enhancing drier advection from Canada versus the HRRR which cant even see that in its domain. Time will tell as always

“Still quite a bit of uncertainty with 18 hours or less until
first flakes. The ECMWF and Regional Canadian models are on the
lower end of the snowfall total spectrum. Part of the reason
for this might be that they both develop a stronger midlevel low
pressure system over northern New England late Monday from a
shortwave trough originating east of Hudson Bay at 00z Sunday.
This could act as a kicker to bring in drier air more quickly
and shorten the window for moisture advection early Monday
before the Mid Atl coastal system gets nudged offshore. This
shortwave trough is outside the domain of the hires models (HRRR
and 3km NAM) and will remain so until the 00z Monday runs.
Given that the HRRR and 3km NAM together make up about 1/3 of
the NBM weighting in this time period, IF this Hudson Bay
feature is indeed responsible for the lower snow totals in the
ECMWF and Canadian models, it`s certainly possible that we see a
shift south in snowfall totals over the next 24 hours. That
said, the HRRR does represent the worst case scenario, with
warning criteria (6+ inches) across much of central PA from I-80
southward, which can not completely be ruled out at this point.”


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[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

But I was told to put a fork in it?

Not you

We need a group counselor. 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

It’s been like this since 1993 or whenever the internet started.

Models always do, but it's better than the 60's and 70's..expecting a snowstorm and waking up to Partly Sunny.

[Festus]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, I forgot zoom.  Still think that school districts need to be reminded that whats easy for them, isnt always easy for homes/families.  Multitude of tangible/intangible liabilities attached.  But we know this, so I'll stop there. 

 

I'm in Hempfield School District and they've made extensive use of the "virtual learning day" these past number of years.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We need a group counselor. 

We have a lot of needs actually. 

[Bubbler86]

Here I will do a little counseling, two souther posters (one met) came in here this AM and proclaimed this to be a "decent event" for many of those south of Harrisburg.    So if PA only gets 1-2" even down tot he M/D you can put a fork in them (and myself) as well. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

We have a lot of needs actually. 

Randy has not given us the budget. 

[WX-PA]

Just now, mitchnick said:

We have a lot of needs actually. 

Anybody who's into this, and for me it's 59 years, needs major help!

[WmsptWx]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Randy has not given us the budget. 

I was told Randy does not care.

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Models always do, but it's better than the 60's and 70's..expecting a snowstorm and waking up to Partly Sunny.

Oh we get those still! I’ll never forget the day the state closed and it was a 45 degree sunny day.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

I was told Randy does not care.

In retrospect that MA forum does need about 90% of the budget to keep it above water counseling wise. 

[mahantango#1]

Maybe a final call map from DT will boost peoples spirits and those start times will definitely put our minds at ease. Now we await the great counselor DT.

[Bubbler86]

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe a final call map from DT will boost peoples spirits and those start times will definitely put our minds at ease. Now we await the great counselor DT.

Where JB final call?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12 minutes ago, Festus said:

I'm in Hempfield School District and they've made extensive use of the "virtual learning day" these past number of years.

They certainly have. We were just hanging with some Hempfield teachers last night and they are fully planning on having a remote day Monday. I always assumed you were in Manheim Central? 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Where JB final call?

He basically didn't say too much more about it since the other day.

[Bubbler86]

GFS seems a bit norther through 12. 

[Superstorm]

Only 3 to 5 inches so far in Kansas City.


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[Ruin]

25 minutes ago, paweather said:

It’s been like this since 1993 or whenever the internet started.

Is it shown anywhere how much we actually pay for these models like National Weather Association or something like that you know as a government funded is it privately owned for some of these models what's the overall cost

[Bubbler86]

At 18 actually not a ton of change but could argue south a smidge.    SLP location variable again. 

[Bubbler86]

Low in Eastern KY at 24 and much of the LSV, except FAR East, has light to moderate snow. 

[Ruin]

24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just figurin that out huhh....

This is the norm and has been for as long as i can remember.

If on the fringe, yeah I get the frustration, but me thinks anyone between rt 30 and I 80 corridor shouldnt be surprised by whatever transpires model wise

Well I'm saying in the long run I understand that variables come into play that changes the outcome over the storm is going to be or where it is ETC but good damn Lord for all Mighty. I'm sorry there is no way that every single model that we have at our disposal flip flops this much I know the big guys Euro GFS sometimes the Canadian model can flip on a dime but every single model I mean can we see the variables that are coming into play on each of these models and why it's changing I always hear about we can't sample the storm until it comes into the West Coast because it's easier to get the information that way but even when we get the information on the the storm system it doesn't really do anything it feels like we have the same issues with we don't know where it's going to be

[Bubbler86]

Precip minor out a bit at 27 (for everyone not just PA).   We keep fighting this issue....it has been a problem on different suites for several days now.  Transfer. 

[Bubbler86]

Still snowing in many southern areas of forum at 7PM but not particularly heavy.