pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:45 PM 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I went 3-5" imby yesterday in the MA forum, and I think mentioned it here too, and reiterated it earlier this morning. No reason to change that yet. If I thought a change made sense, my gut says it would be lower and not higher. This has been a central MD/VA storm since 6z Friday run when Euro and Ukie went south. Changes have not been enough in the right ways atmospherically; at least, not yet, and we're running out of time. Next weekend thing looks very questionable too. I'd think your by call is safe. next weekend just looks good on Op surface maps, but ENS arent really supportive. Plenty of time to narrow that one it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM Just now, pasnownut said: Hoping this one can work out. Been a whiles since we've seen a potential event of this size. I read in the NE forum that Snowgoose, met from NY, says a no go. Too early to say for sure, but except for the Gfs and Euro, there's been no hint of anything like they're showing on the Gem, Ukie? or Icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM 20 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Unfortunately looking more and more like a 2-4 nuisance event for southern counties. Losing the NAM is a kick in the nuts. Oh well onto next weekend… I am 3 miles north of the Turnpike in Bedford Co. So I still hold out hope I can get the snow blower out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Just now, mitchnick said: 6-7 miles from the MD border. That close enough? LOL. Could be 4 in MDT and 4 in KHan and both numbers are right but more potential south obviously. 2-4" of snow with highs in the mid to upper 20's is more than a nuisance event. It is a school closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Just now, pasnownut said: I'd think your by call is safe. next weekend just looks good on Op surface maps, but ENS arent really supportive. Plenty of time to narrow that one it. Last night's Eps looked great, but took a dive at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM HRRR more accurate short term model. I’d hold off on the fork-in-it assumptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM 12z WRF-FV3 also significantly cut snow totals north of the M/D line. Should these lower totals verify tomorrow, it would be a win for the Euro, UKMet and Canadian/RGEM suites for sure. Only the extended HRRR is maintaining a snowier solution farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, medmax said: HRRR more accurate short term model. I’d hold off on the fork-in-it assumptions. Live and die by every model run. That is the hobby here unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Looks destined it a CT mauler to me CTP had MDT forecast for 1-3”. Feels right. Nuisance type event. That comment was in regards to the next weekend event. I think this one is a safe advisory for you and south, but once north of the burg is gonna have a noticable drop. I'd bet selinsgrove barley sees an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Sunday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:51 PM 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL. Could be 4 in MDT and 4 in KHan and both numbers are right but more potential south obviously. 2-4" of snow with highs in the mid to upper 20's is more than a nuisance event. It is a school closer. When I went to school they used to put chains on the buses. Snow days were seldom used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: 12z hrrr slightly expanding precip for the northern flank today is the add any model that shows what we want into the "ones not to toss" pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: When I went to school they used to put chains on the buses. Snow days were seldom used. Yea but the stone tablets kids carried as their books helped weigh the horse carriage bus down for better traction (I kid!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: When I went to school they used to put chains on the buses. Snow days were seldom used. IF an area is getting 3" or 4" and the snow has already started I doubt they roll the busses. But 2-4" would probably preclude the risk of a 2 day snow break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I read in the NE forum that Snowgoose, met from NY, says a no go. Too early to say for sure, but except for the Gfs and Euro, there's been no hint of anything like they're showing on the Gem, Ukie? or Icon. hell, just look at GFS op/ens, and if anyone has been doing this, that alone should cause a flag to show up. Notable diff's within them at 500. Just gonna be fun to enjoy a winter week and chat up more potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: IF an area is getting 3" or 4" and the snow has already started I doubt they roll the busses. But 2-4" would probably preclude the risk of a 2 day snow break. dunno bout your hood, but down here, i think they just look for an excuse for a day off. That coupled w/ normal liablities that come w/ snow and kid watchin seems to scare em quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:57 PM 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z WRF-FV3 also significantly cut snow totals north of the M/D line. Should these lower totals verify tomorrow, it would be a win for the Euro, UKMet and Canadian/RGEM suites for sure. Only the extended HRRR is maintaining a snowier solution farther north . That's 10:1. Kuchie isn't as bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: When I went to school they used to put chains on the buses. Snow days were seldom used. I remember chains on buses. We rarely had snow days either. It didn't help that our superintendent when I was a kid was a Syracuse native. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Just now, pasnownut said: dunno bout your hood, but down here, i think they just look for an excuse for a day off. That coupled w/ normal liablities that come w/ snow and kid watchin seems to scare em quick. Yea, the liabilities are the key IMO. Plus the ability to Zoom up a day. If they get kids in school and it is still snow at 3-4PM it is a total disaster that is fireable for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM 14 minutes ago, str8liner said: I am 3 miles north of the Turnpike in Bedford Co. So I still hold out hope I can get the snow blower out. I think you are rather safe in the 4-6". I'm gonna blow the hell outta my 1-2" tomorrow. That didnt sound very good did it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 PM Just now, mitchnick said: That's 10:1. Kuchie isn't as bad at all. Has 8" just over the M/D line. Rgem looks North too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, the liabilities are the key IMO. Plus the ability to Zoom up a day. If they get kids in school and it is still snow at 3-4PM it is a total disaster that is fireable for some. based on duration/timing, this one screams SNOW day for many in southern 1/3 of state IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted Sunday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:02 PM RDPS (Reggie) is north. At least with expansion on north side.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:03 PM 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, the liabilities are the key IMO. Plus the ability to Zoom up a day. If they get kids in school and it is still snow at 3-4PM it is a total disaster that is fireable for some. Yeah, I forgot zoom. Still think that school districts need to be reminded that whats easy for them, isnt always easy for homes/families. Multitude of tangible/intangible liabilities attached. But we know this, so I'll stop there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:03 PM For counties south of the TP, Rgem went up about an average of 1/2" or maybe slightly below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted Sunday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:05 PM Icon wagons north. MDT up 1-2 additional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM Icon north some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM Just now, Bubbler86 said: Icon wagons north. MDT up 1-2 additional. Ninja again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:09 PM Another sub-freezing day on tap today before light snow arrives toward daybreak tomorrow from southwest to northeast across the area. The well-advertised snow event should bring the most relative snow to areas closest to the Maryland and Delaware borders. Depending on how much snow falls in your area we could see some blowing and drifting snow issues by Tuesday afternoon. Cold temperatures but dry for the rest of the week before another potential winter event may arrive next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted Sunday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:10 PM I will add that no matter what tomorrow does, ens and tellie guidance sure does look workable or better for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:10 PM Jesus these models flip flop more then a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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