mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 JB said tonight that he expects the Euro to come north a little more and ramp up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The NAM is indeed a winner for most, but it also has one heck of a cutoff near I-80 in central and I-78 in eastern. Great hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I hope CTP can change from Snow Showers to SNOW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, mahantango#1 said: JB said tonight that he expects the Euro to come north a little more and ramp up a little more. I really don't believe it. I think the handwriting is on the wall for me. It ain't coming north and I won't see more than possibly an inch or so out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So with this model JB might be on to something. Perhaps, NAM is putting out 0.6”-1.0”, with the 1.0” or so being near the DC area… which is probably about the limit given this system not really having a chance to wind up to any kind of full fledge coastal. If this is going to actually crank out a swath of 10-15” amounts it’ll be due to ratios.. which may actually benefit the southern tier. In the NAM’s positioning, best mid level forcing would likely be in the southern tier which could enhance ratios thru more efficient snow growth further aloft. It’s already a pretty cold column as is, with the Kuchera method (which doesn’t account for actual snow growth processes) calculating 15-16:1 ratios for AOO/JST/MDT/THV/LNS. Could be a band(s) somewhere in there that may even best those ratios. Obviously a further south solution takes those dynamics south of the M/D line. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: I really don't believe it. I think the handwriting is on the wall for me. It ain't coming north and I won't see more than possibly an inch or so out of it. Hang in there plenty of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I really don't believe it. I think the handwriting is on the wall for me. It ain't coming north and I won't see more than possibly an inch or so out of it. JB said the other day I 80 would probably be The northern extent of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I completely understand why no one commented on the ICON and the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I completely understand why no one commented on the ICON and the RGEM. Good news! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 When was the ICON and RGEM right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z GFS looks to becoming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Homerun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 maybe grand slam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Where is Blizz right now. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, paweather said: Where is Blizz right now. LOL Waiting for the run to finish…Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Waiting for the run to finish…Lol It finished. We are in a good spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS ticked south with the precip shield, but still brings Warning snow to the LSV. I would be fine if this is the final outcome, but we still have 2 days to go… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS has another chance next Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS was only slightly south but it made a big difference on the northern edge since it’s a tight gradient up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 340 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 PAZ036-064>066-042245- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.250106T0500Z-250107T0500Z/ Franklin-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Lancaster, and York 340 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations 5 inches or more possible. * WHERE...Adams, Franklin, Lancaster, and York Counties. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit weather.gov/StateCollege Steinbugl/Banghoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 As we anxiously await the next run of the SNOWINPA model, today is a two-fer. It's the latest sunrise of the year AND it's perihelion. When the Earth is closest to the sun, it is travelling faster in its orbit (Keplar's second law for extra brownie points). As such, meteorological winter is roughly 2 days shorter than meteorological summer in the northern hemisphere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Only two models that give me anything substantial, and by that I mean 1-2 inches, is the NAM and NAM 3k. All of the others are way south and some even near misses. At this point, unless something significant changes (which I doubt) I'd be happy to not even see a flake and for everything to just stay south of I-81 and I-78. As for next Saturday's chance, meh. I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not going to invest nearly as much emotion into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Wxrisk.com ptodoenSsr0fu70gigtt0cf5g0182lhft95656i62ua23cu1722al0ghm2g5 · FIRST CALL MAP SATURDAY 11AM need sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Wxrisk.com ptodoenSsr0fu70gigtt0cf5g0182lhft95656i62ua23cu1722al0ghm2g5 · FIRST CALL MAP SATURDAY 11AM need sleep Good morning, I can’t see his map with that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Good morning, I can’t see his map with that link. You'll have to wait until 11am, Poor guy needs sleep. Maybe we'll get a bonus map of those famous start times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: You'll have to wait until 11am, Poor guy needs sleep. Maybe we'll get a bonus map of those famous start times too. Sorry, I was so excited to see his map that I didn’t fully read the post, Lol! I need coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I’ve never seen them use broad ranges like 3 to 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What is this 1-7 inches? Talk about uncertainty. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Ha a lot of 1-7” and 2-7” on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ve never seen them use broad ranges like 3 to 8. Is the third string working this weekend in the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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