DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: One could argue the CMC is not a Miller B as it tracks the low so far South it can be prone to squeeze itself off the NC coast instead of transfer. Still a very healthy snow for south PA Nice run and easy way to score, but you wonder if that makes sense given the other models amping the vort pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 one takeaway, is that CMC goes w/ the idea i shared earlier, and holds onto primary all the way to coast. Thats a + but now we need the cold press to slow the souther progression. Thats wishcasting though so the jury can strike that comment from the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Nice run and easy way to score, but you wonder if that makes sense given the other models amping the vort pretty hard. It is a nice snow for you and I no question. That movement hurts our Northern folks. This has changed a lot since we started tracking as initially we were looking at a cutter up into Oh and a transfer with a large percentage chance of a screw zone. This is a safer and easier way to score. Cannot say if it makes sense vs. say all options seem still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ok, I'm out. Have fun yall. c u later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It is a nice snow for you and I no question. That movement hurts our Northern folks. This has changed a lot since we started tracking as initially we were looking at a cutter up into Oh and a transfer with a large percentage chance of a screw zone. This is a safer and easier way to score. This is ground truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If CTP is going to do aleets, I think WSW from ~ I80 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here in Carlisle at 11:24am a steady, very light snow has begun. Temp currently 32.2 after a low of 23.9. Dew point 22.1 and wet bulb 28.8. If it picks up in earnest that's an easy drop to 30 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If CTP is going to do aleets, I think WSW from ~ I80 south. Wouldn't surprise me if, looking as how things are depicted now, Schuylkill County would be left out of that WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wouldn't surprise me if, looking as how things are depicted now, Schuylkill County would be left out of that WSW. I bet they do not release them until this evening (or possibly tomorrow AM but maybe this evening.). I know you want your 6" and that is definitely still in the possible range but less likely than souther as of now. I mean I am still holding tight with my 2-4 down here as there is nothing 100% concrete yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Very, very light snow but with little wind and it's damned cold out, the road has once again succumbed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I would think CTP hoists aleets this evening for the first two layers of county. For counties north of US 22, they may wait until tomorrow morning or afternoon to see if they can go straight to WWA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Occasional flakes here but up to 36 so no accums. This is after a very cold low of 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, WmsptWx said: I would think CTP hoists aleets this evening for the first two layers of county. For counties north of US 22, they may wait until tomorrow morning or afternoon to see if they can go straight to WWA. I agree with this - at least pending what the Euro does in the next hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree with this - at least pending what the Euro does in the next hour. Probably the most 0Z souther and flip flopper UK is running right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Solid, accumulating light snow is now picking up. Whitening everywhere. Temp down to 31.5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subliminal87 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here in Carlisle at 11:24am a steady, very light snow has begun. Temp currently 32.2 after a low of 23.9. Dew point 22.1 and wet bulb 28.8. If it picks up in earnest that's an easy drop to 30 degrees. I’m about to drive from Mechanicsburg to Carlisle. Curious how long it takes for the first accident on 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UK is going to maintain its south stance through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree with this - at least pending what the Euro does in the next hour. I don't want to be a negative Nancy (too late, already am) but I just don't see it changing much at this point. It's becoming more and more evident that this is not going to be my storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UK is going to maintain its south stance through 66. Slightly better than its 00Z position.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10-1 UK not too far from 0Z. A bit more northern expanse of snow in the eastern side of our forum. This would be a general 2-4 or 3-6" snow for much of the LSV when looking at Kuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A beautiful steady snow has broken out here in Harrisburg. I'm off to take a walk in it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here in Carlisle at 12:00 noon, accumulating snow continues as intensity slowly ramps up, almost approaching moderate. I don't quite have 0.1" on my board, but very soon. Grass, mulch, etc all turning white. This intensity has indeed caused my temperature to continue to drop, now down to 30.7 degrees. Several of the models that called for nothing in my area have now busted...lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A beautiful steady snow has broken out here in Harrisburg. I'm off to take a walk in it. It’s beautiful for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Light snow in Lebanon as well! Temp 33 but will wet bulb below freezing for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, AccuChris said: Light snow in Lebanon as well! Temp 33 but will wet bulb below freezing for sure . I'm down to 30.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z Euro essentially holds serve from its 6z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Slight bump north on Euro.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z Euro is a little bit better than 6z for the southern tier, otherwise still adamant on heaviest swath all the way between DC and Richmond. We shall see how it’s ensembles look. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 12z Euro essentially holds serve from its 6z run . As I check in over lunch, It appears that the 12z Euro ticked north a bit over its 0z & 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 @mitchnick off the ledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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