Central PA Winter 2024/2025

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes sir.  Reserved tickets as soon as they sent the email out to season ticket holders weeks ago.  I don't know if it'll be a sellout, due to the myriad of issues discussed earlier in this thread, but I'll be there doing my part.  Tailgating bright and early.  We plan to be there right when the lots open at 7am.  Frosty.

A quick check this morning on ticket availability shows that very few tickets have been sold since Friday. The resale inventory has actually increased along with falling prices. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I can't blame ya for that decision.  Come Saturday afternoon I may be wishing I had done the same ha.  Might be time for a new pair of long johns.

Achenbach's makes great long johns. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A quick check this morning on ticket availability shows that very few tickets have been sold since Friday. The resale inventory has actually increased along with falling prices. 

Yep.  I do think once they get real cheap people will scoop them up, but not all of them.  The bigger issue, as has been mentioned, may be lodging.  I haven't looked but is there even any available??  Or at least any that doesn't break the bank?  Weather not helping the cause either. 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Achenbach's makes great long johns. 

I see what you did there!

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  I do think once they get real cheap people will scoop them up, but not all of them.  The bigger issue, as has been mentioned, may be lodging.  I haven't looked but is there even any available??  Or at least any that doesn't break the bank?  Weather not helping the cause either. 

I see what you did there!

Seems like it has gone down a slight bit to $700-$1-00 a night

 

[Superstorm]

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  I do think once they get real cheap people will scoop them up, but not all of them.  The bigger issue, as has been mentioned, may be lodging.  I haven't looked but is there even any available??  Or at least any that doesn't break the bank?  Weather not helping the cause either. 

I see what you did there!

[Superstorm]

Mid to upper 20s for game time.  Much nicer from the couch.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

CTP's thoughts for Friday.....

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clipper moving across the Great Lakes on Fri should produce a
little light snow, but does not look like a significant
snowfall. However, the GFS has the sharpest part of the upper
trough passing overhead late Fri/early Fri night. Temps are
already cold, but depending on timing, SNSQ are possible, esp if
the forcing arrives mid-aftn. The air mass behind the clipper
system is very cold, and we have made sure to stay on the low
side of guidance for temps Sat- Sun night. Sun night may be the
coldest as the sfc ridge will be cresting overhead and lake
effect clouds will be going away.

[MAG5035]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

My concern is precip. Freebie maps look dry during the colder weeks.

D@mn STJ is Mia thanks to Niña. Also, we need the trough axis to be more conducive for passing short waves under us versus what we've had and then redevelop with Atlantic moisture, or it's dry when cold.

Hate to sound picky, but it has been 4 years since a 6"+ snow storm.  

ENSO has yet to emerge into an actual La Niña, we are and have remained at ENSO neutral all year since the Nino faded last winter.

I have my doubts we ever actually end up with an official one (which needs 5 consecutive 3 month average periods of < -0.5ºC in 3.4). With the way the week to week has been going with ENSO temps so far this month, I would expect the OND average to be another neutral once this month wraps up. What may happen in the next month or so is SST’s dip into perhaps weak Nina territory, but I wouldn’t see it as having any major influence. Models really busted on this from early in the year when most were projecting a full blown strong Nina. 

I think one of our issues with the pattern alignment stem from generally having a +NAO/AO. What we do have right now that has been missing the last I don’t know how many winters is a positive PNA that has seemed to have some staying power. That has kept a mean trough on this side of the country which has kept us cold more often than not but the +NAO/AO has kept stuff from really digging. Another issue is we’ve also been working a phase 5 MJO pretty much the whole month so far, which is not really an ideal phase to be in. The fact we’ve been so cold has been a bit of a minor miracle IMO. Without that western ridge, we likely would have been roasting. Following another cold shot coming this weekend, it does appear that the week between Christmas and New Year’s is likely to be an anomalously warm one as the EPO is slated to go positive and will likely overwhelm the CONUS with warmer air despite the continued ridging in the west (+PNA). With the MJO, Nina’s favor phases 4-6…so that’s where I feel the ENSO neutral conditions could be a good thing in the longer run as the MJO could actually be allowed to rotate into the more favorable phases at some magnitude and not stall in the bad ones. Models are already putting the MJO in Phase 7 by the end of the month. A 7-8-1 run would have a decent chance of delivering a better storm pattern for us as well. So I think we’re going to set up for a good period at some point when we get into next month, especially if we can keep the +PNA. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Mid to upper 20s for game time.  Much nicer from the couch.

You're not wrong haha.  But I'll leave it at this:  I've tailgated in worse, much worse. 

[Superstorm]

Me too....but being over 50 now, that cold hits different.

[mitchnick]

Icon ftw again!

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Icon ftw again!

[mitchnick]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ninja'd

But my map caters to us oldsters.

[mitchnick]

Is that an inverted trough on the Icon giving us that snow? I think so. Doesn't look like a norlun.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Is that an inverted trough on the Icon giving us that snow? I think so. Doesn't look like a norlun.

Never mind. 5H trough

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never mind. 5H trough

Rgem not buying it.  Has the Ocean low more organized and subsidence keeps us dry. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Rgem not buying it.  Has the Ocean low more organized and subsidence keeps us dry. 

Icon has been on its own for 3 runs in a row. That's the most runs in a row this year that any model has given me accumulating snow. So it's consistency will either be it's virtue or downfall.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Icon has been on its own for 3 runs in a row. That's the most runs in a row this year that any model has given me accumulating snow. So it's consistency will either be it's virtue or downfall.

You got some company there buddy

 

[Itstrainingtime]

We ride the ICON/Navgem combo...what could go wrong? 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We ride the ICON/Navgem combo...what could go wrong? 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You got some company there buddy

 

 

[paweather]

This should be win Saturday but I have zero trust in Franklin in big games. I know SMU lines up pretty similar to PSU but at home weather will be on our side this should be a W. Ugh what else could go wrong. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs is trying with scattered -snsh.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs is trying with scattered -snsh.

The piece of energy coming from the Upper Mid West is dying/transferring as it gets closer to the ocean low/front. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The piece of energy coming from the Upper Mid West is dying/transferring as it gets closer to the ocean low/front. 

Yep. Canadian dry as a bone.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. Canadian dry as a bone.

The GFS has a rain shower over me.  LOL .  Mid to upper 30's on the GFS and CMC. 

[Bubbler86]

The Atlantic saves us from a torchmas on the GFS.  The country is in the process of being routed of almost all cold air but we in South PA hold on to stay in the upper 30's and 40's with some light frozen precip in NE PA.  

 

 

[Bubbler86]

Late Nooners.  Partly cloudy and 55.  Lots of upper 50's in Adams county. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Partly sunny and 58 in Conestoga.