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Central PA Winter 2024/2025


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Here is my climatological summary from Carlisle for 12/15/24:  A total of 1.5" of snow was recorded between 4:00pm and 11:00pm.  The 1.5" of snow melted down to 0.15" of liquid which gave a perfect 10:1 SLR.  The high temp was 32.5 degrees and the low was 21.9.  At midnight a very light mixture of snow/sleet/and maybe some rain was occurring.  Maybe we'll be lucky and the amount of rain overnight will be less, and there will still be at least some snow left on the grass come 8:00am.

Nite all.

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I think I'm (we're) going to get my wish.  The back edge of the rain is already crossing the M/D line.  There is nothing behind following.  My temp has fallen back to 31.8 degrees.  At this point I'm guessing that there will be at most 0.10" of rain with the temp between 32 and 33.  If the rain is done while the temp is 33, there absolutely will be snow on the ground in the morning.  Even if the temp goes up to 35, with no sun and no rain, any melting will be curtailed.  

I'm dreaming of a white Monday morning...

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We picked up 0.77" of rain here in East Nantmeal with most spots picking up between 0.65" to 0.95" of rain across Chester County. We get a brief break in the rain today before rain arrives again later this evening. We could see another 0.25" to 0.50" of rain tonight. The sun returns and warmer tomorrow before we start a cooling trend that will lead to our coldest weather so far this season by the weekend. Rain chances again on Wednesday PM and maybe a little snow by Friday afternoon and evening before we turn sharply colder over the weekend.

image.png.fbd7798ce42471be57b73876feb49bd5.pngimage.thumb.png.c9a80fa2e0bb2d09f91ff8476837dab1.png

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Had some very heavy rain late last evening (probably the same batch that Blizz referred to falling as snow at MDT) that has pushed my running 7 day total to 3.02" of liquid. The .2" of snow that fell was long gone by this morning - currently it's 37 with drizze. 

KITT may hit 50 three days this week (and maybe one 60)....depends on how warm it can get before midnight tonight. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

D0 on Thursday?

Seems consensus for Sat White Out right now is dry and seasonably cold.  25-30 game time.  Icon a bit colder.  

probably a good thing. i heard some roads were in bad shape last evening and people had trouble getting to volleyball game on time.

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I will say this about the 273 snow maps that were posted in advance of last evening's event -if you go back and look through them over the past 10 pages or so, there was remarkable model consensus with where the snow would fall AND in general...they were pretty darn accurate. (they were almost all too high, but that happens with 98% of our events)

I cherrypicked one of @Blizzard of 93  maps he posted Saturday evening to illustrate - again, other than the amount, the general intent here looked pretty good. 

I've been known to be critical of snow maps...but I'll also publicly admit that they had a decent handle on this event. 

 

IMG_7963.png

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I will say this about the 273 snow maps that were posted in advance of last evening's event -if you go back and look through them over the past 10 pages or so, there was remarkable model consensus with where the snow would fall AND in general...they were pretty darn accurate. (they were almost all too high, but that happens with 98% of our events)

I cherrypicked one of @Blizzard of 93  maps he posted Saturday evening to illustrate - again, other than the amount, the general intent here looked pretty good. 

I've been known to be critical of snow maps...but I'll also publicly admit that they had a decent handle on this event. 

 

IMG_7963.png

Some of the snows maps were way too high but that was a general assumption coming into this.   10:1 maps were way too high but Kuch was in many areas as well.  But I agree, the models did a generally good job in location once they moved to the side that snow was going to happen for some. 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s ridiculous, especially with the snow that MDT received in the 11 pm hour.

I thought that they would record a few tenths of snow on the .16 of precip.

Maybe @Coop_Mason or someone can make an inquiry with CTP?

Are you really going to throw a tantrum with the official score because it didn't go your way?

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Well, looks like I was correct with my comments about waking up to a "white" morning.  My temperature hovered near 32.2 from midnight until 5:41am when it hit 32.5.  It didn't go above 32.5 until 8:13am when it hit 32.7.  Needless to say very little has melted.  However, there is plenty of fog around this morning, and I have reached the warmest temperature it has been here in nearly 4 days, with a reading of 34.3 degrees.  I don't mind the snow melting from purely warmer temperatures.  But, I always hate to see snowpack eliminated by rain.  It will be interesting to see how long it takes to melt the majority probably late this afternoon or evening.

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1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Doesn't mean I would dry to the NWS office because the mean airport didn't put an amount I wanted lol.

in his defense, they do suck and their measurements for "official data" frequently is not close to what anyone around them measures. So somebody who is data driven or like to be historically accurate( like me) it matters. Its one reason i started writing notes, because they are inaccurate ALL THE TIME :D  

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

in his defense, they do suck and their measurements for "official data" frequently is not close to what anyone around them measures. So somebody who is data driven or like to be historically accurate( like me) it matters. Its one reason i started writing notes, because they are inaccurate ALL THE TIME :D  

Well in that case we should just bomb the airport. 

 

To the FBI agent searching for first and last names for watch lists after that comment. My name is Hugh Janus, and this is just a joke. 

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8 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Well in that case we should just bomb the airport. 

 

To the FBI agent searching for first and last names for watch lists after that comment. My name is Hugh Janus, and this is just a joke. 

just shoot a drone down, they won't need your name. they'll find you

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.1" of snow and .55" of total liquid.  MDT not even managing to record a tenth of an inch of snow seems highly suspect but nothing we haven't seen before from that place.  Really liking how the weather is shaping up for the PSU game on Saturday.  Wouldn't be shocked to see a few stray flakes flying through the air either.  Sad about how things went down with Beau.  Timing is obviously not ideal.  College football, for as great as it is, is such a mess in so many ways right now.

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.1" of snow and .55" of total liquid.  MDT not even managing to record a tenth of an inch of snow seems highly suspect but nothing we haven't seen before from that place.  Really liking how the weather is shaping up for the PSU game on Saturday.  Wouldn't be shocked to see a few stray flakes flying through the air either.  Sad about how things went down with Beau.  Timing is obviously not ideal.  College football, for as great as it is, is such a mess in so many ways right now.

----Blizzard of 0Z 93 Sarcasm font initiated----

What?  When they are sitting at 43 and CXY, MUI and LNS are all in the 50's or 60's, you are saying THEIR location or equipment is the issue?  Why hasn't anyone suggested moving our official recording station for the area?  

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