Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals. And nothing is laying on major roads. I am not calling for anything of consequence south of Harrisburg right now. I believe 2M temps will be in the 35-40 range in our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals. We have an Arctic air mass in place with cold ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Just now, Bubbler86 said: And nothing is laying on major roads. I am not calling for anything of consequence south of Harrisburg right now. I believe 2M temps will be in the 35-40 range in our areas. You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We have an Arctic air mass in place with cold ground temps. Also, precip coming mostly at night, so the dreaded mid December sun angle won’t impact much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol Yea, I always chuckle when I see the MA folks talk about Hanover, York, etc as snow towns. But yea I may see something if it gets here early enough. Like mentioned above, if it arrives after dark it is a full rain IMO. The 540 line (and even worse in other layers of the column) is retreating in response to the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus tonight into Sunday morning is on approaching 5h trough swinging into the high plains Saturday and middle to upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and to the lower central GLAKS on Sunday. Strong easterly ageostrophic flow around anomalous arctic high pressure over the Gulf of Maine and and weak sfc trough with approaching system on Sunday means that cold air from the retreating arctic high will be very difficult to dislodge. CAD entrenched along and to the east of the Allegheny Mtns will set the stage for overrunning mixed precip Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends indicate S/IP as most likely Ptype well east of the Alleghenies with a good signal for fzra/icing closer to the Alleghenies. Confidence was sufficient for near warning criteria fzra over the Laurel Highlands to hoist a Winter Storm Watch for .25"+ potential ice amounts, with Advisories stretching northward through Clearfield, Elk and Cameron Counties (coordinated with PBZ). The depth of the cold air will be a major factor in determining the amount of frozen (snow and sleet) versus liquid (freezing rain and rain) precipitation. The bulk of the wintry mix and snow/ice accumulation should stay along and to the northwest of I81. As far as snow accumulations go, Advisory criteria snow/sleet is looking increasingly likely over parts of the Central Mountains, Ridge and Valley Region, and up towards the Endless Mountains region of northeast PA. It appears that hourly snowfall rates of .25" to .5" at times Sunday afternoon and evening bring the best chances for 2-4 inches of snow to an area stretching from State College to Lewisburg, Bloomsburg to Lock Haven and back to Philipsburg, with 1 to 2.5" amounts common across the remainder of central and north central PA (south of Rt 6). Amounts drop off south of I-81, and along the Alleghenies where ptypes are more likely to be freezing rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We have an Arctic air mass in place with cold ground temps. True. But it's a retreating arctic High with SE winds and there's not the kind of model consensus you'd expect for a decent accumulation event. Don't get me wrong. Higher elevations will likely do as advertised, but imho anything to the south and east of the mts under 2" on the 10:1 maps will likely be 1/2" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus tonight into Sunday morning is on approaching 5h trough swinging into the high plains Saturday and middle to upper Mississippi River Valley tonight and to the lower central GLAKS on Sunday. Strong easterly ageostrophic flow around anomalous arctic high pressure over the Gulf of Maine and and weak sfc trough with approaching system on Sunday means that cold air from the retreating arctic high will be very difficult to dislodge. CAD entrenched along and to the east of the Allegheny Mtns will set the stage for overrunning mixed precip Sunday into Sunday night. Model trends indicate S/IP as most likely Ptype well east of the Alleghenies with a good signal for fzra/icing closer to the Alleghenies. Confidence was sufficient for near warning criteria fzra over the Laurel Highlands to hoist a Winter Storm Watch for .25"+ potential ice amounts, with Advisories stretching northward through Clearfield, Elk and Cameron Counties (coordinated with PBZ). The depth of the cold air will be a major factor in determining the amount of frozen (snow and sleet) versus liquid (freezing rain and rain) precipitation. The bulk of the wintry mix and snow/ice accumulation should stay along and to the northwest of I81. As far as snow accumulations go, Advisory criteria snow/sleet is looking increasingly likely over parts of the Central Mountains, Ridge and Valley Region, and up towards the Endless Mountains region of northeast PA. It appears that hourly snowfall rates of .25" to .5" at times Sunday afternoon and evening bring the best chances for 2-4 inches of snow to an area stretching from State College to Lewisburg, Bloomsburg to Lock Haven and back to Philipsburg, with 1 to 2.5" amounts common across the remainder of central and north central PA (south of Rt 6). Amounts drop off south of I-81, and along the Alleghenies where ptypes are more likely to be freezing rain and sleet. Here is CTP’s take on tomorrow night. Looks like our first widespread Advisory event for many of us is on the way tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Also, check out the high on the Rgem (first) and the high on GFS (second). Major difference in protecting against a WAA battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Also, precip coming mostly at night, so the dreaded mid December sun angle won’t impact much. My forecast has rain and snow starting at 1PM. I'm sure I'll have snow TV, but it's the accumulations I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: True. But it's a retreating arctic High with SE winds and there's not the kind of model consensus you'd expect for a decent accumulation event. Don't get me wrong. Higher elevations will likely do as advertised, but imho anything to the south and east of the mts under 2" on the 10:1 maps will likely be 1/2" or less. Arctic air is tough to dislodge… CTP said it in their discussion. If the precip comes in as a solid “wall”, this should produce from around I -81 on to the north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I always chuckle when I see the MA folks talk about Hanover, York, etc as snow towns. But yea I may see something if it gets here early enough. Like mentioned above, if it arrives after dark it is a full rain IMO. The 540 line (and even worse in other layers of the column) is retreating in response to the WAA. There was a big difference in a number of years from the 90's to before I moved up here. And I did do substantially better than BWI in 20/21 and better last year. But not so in the other 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Arctic air is tough to dislodge… CTP said it in their discussion. If the precip comes in as a solid “wall”, this should produce from around I -81 on to the north & west. There's no doubt, my southern location is a problem. But getting back to my original post, I just don't think the 10:1 accumulation maps are going to be as accurate as the Kuchera. That's really all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There was a big difference in a number of years from the 90's to before I moved up here. And I did do substantially better than BWI in 20/21 and better last year. But not so in the other 3 years. There is definitely a difference but Adams, York and Lanco change over real fast with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 What’s the timing for tomorrow’s event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Long range 12z HRRR is slightly more generous in snowfall for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Just now, AccuChris said: Long range 12z HRRR is slightly more generous in snowfall for tomorrow and tomorrow night . It starts the precip earlier which is one for Team Snow. Hard to compare from 6Z though as that run did not cover the entire event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Here is the 6z Euro ensemble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Low of 18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 NAM brought precip in faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: NAM brought precip in faster Don't look at the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Just now, mitchnick said: Don't look at the 3k. It actually improved slightly as to snow presentation. Neither are anything but white rain/mulch snow for much of the LSV IMO. Just a better white rain that 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 58 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol Agreed. I'm on my 4th winter here and I think we have had 1 warning level event in 21-22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 This morning's low of 17.5 degrees was our coldest morning here in East Nantmeal since last February 18th when the low was 15.2 degrees. Today will mark our 10th below normal day over the 1st 14 days of December. We start a brief moderating trend tomorrow with temperatures getting above normal by Monday PM. Our mildest day will be Tuesday when we rise into the low to mid 50's. Another cool down will start by Tuesday evening. Rain and even a little freezing drizzle could arrive toward midnight tomorrow night. Rain should continue a good bit of the time through Tuesday. By the end of the work week, we could see another chance of some rain or wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Guys, I'm surprised no one has mentioned the current barometric pressure. Here at the moment it is 30.91" or 1047 millibars! This is the highest pressure I've seen in years. At the very least I know we never got this high during all of last winter. One very interesting thing is that frequently in these types of setups where very high pressure (usually closer to 30.70") is present, and precip is forecast to arrive approximately 24 hours later, freezing rain is oftentimes the predominant p-type. For me, this area is usually the last to give up the cold when there is cold air damming. I cannot speak as to how much snow I might see since I am literally 1 mile south of I-81, but when it does go over to rain, there may be a prolonged period of freezing rain. (Everything I have just talked about is referencing my location of central Cumberland county.) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 12z RGEM still looks good for around I-81 back to the north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 12z RGEM still looks good for around I-81 back to the north & west.What is timing on this?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: What is timing on this? . CTP for now for the Harrisburg area is saying mainly after 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Any idea why we have this cloud cover today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 17 minutes ago, Ruin said: Any idea why we have this cloud cover today Fires in Canada lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now