stormy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: The default now is warm. Sure, we will get cold. It's going to snow again. But it's far more fleeting than it was when we were kids (at least around here), and before long it reverts to the default: warm. At least empirically, it seems something has flipped in the past 5 years or so. The number of nights at or below freezing has fallen off a cliff. We don't set record lows anymore. Event his recent cold shot, while cold, wasn't anything to write home about. Lows in the teens and 20s with highs in the 30s and 40s were commonplace not too long ago at this time of year. One of the local news mets was talking about how this was the coldest first week of Dec since 2005. But it was the fifth coldest first week since 2000. So, uh, prior to 2005 it seems practically every year was colder. I feel sorry for you. I tied a record low last week going back to 1893. And to tie was a round up .3F. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 28 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: The default now is warm. Sure, we will get cold. It's going to snow again. But it's far more fleeting than it was when we were kids (at least around here), and before long it reverts to the default: warm. At least empirically, it seems something has flipped in the past 5 years or so. The number of nights at or below freezing has fallen off a cliff. We don't set record lows anymore. Event his recent cold shot, while cold, wasn't anything to write home about. Lows in the teens and 20s with highs in the 30s and 40s were commonplace not too long ago at this time of year. One of the local news mets was talking about how this was the coldest first week of Dec since 2005. But it was the fifth coldest first week since 2000. So, uh, prior to 2005 it seems practically every year was colder. 2000-2005 had some very cold first weeks of December. At least at IAD, 12/1-12/7 this year was also colder than every first week of December in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1998, the average high between 12/1-12/7 was 73.4. In 1982 it was 63.1. A random week obviously is not long enough of a period to make any meaningful historical comparison. But 12/1-12/7 this year was very cold for our area by any historical standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 50 minutes ago, stormy said: I feel sorry for you. I tied a record low last week going back to 1893. And to tie was a round up .3F. lol - oh man, yeah I guess nothing is happening since your little station tied a record low. Oh wait 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 27 minutes ago, hstorm said: 2000-2005 had some very cold first weeks of December. At least at IAD, 12/1-12/7 this year was also colder than every first week of December in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1998, the average high between 12/1-12/7 was 73.4. In 1982 it was 63.1. A random week obviously is not long enough of a period to make any meaningful historical comparison. But 12/1-12/7 this year was very cold for our area by any historical standard. mean temps in the mid 30s is not "very cold for our area by any historical standard" in December. DCA finished the weak with a -7.5F departure, while IAD was -9.1F. Yes, that's cold. It's not earth shattering. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 31 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: mean temps in the mid 30s is not "very cold for our area by any historical standard" in December. DCA finished the weak with a -7.5F departure, while IAD was -9.1F. Yes, that's cold. It's not earth shattering. It was the 6th coldest 12/1-12/7 period ever at IAD (since 1961). That's a historically cold week. Was any one day historically cold? No. But it is rare (and has always been rare) for us to get a week straight of anomalous cold in early December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, stormy said: I feel sorry for you. I tied a record low last week going back to 1893. And to tie was a round up .3F. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change BOO, did I scare you? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 LOL, folks pulling up global averages. Hey, it has been cold for a 7-10 day period, something most folks in this forum have wanted to see or been looking forward to for some time, enjoy it before it is sadly +12 again. Several record LOWS set in Blacksburg's NWS area this week. I set one myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 hours ago, hstorm said: It was the 6th coldest 12/1-12/7 period ever at IAD (since 1961). That's a historically cold week. Was any one day historically cold? No. But it is rare (and has always been rare) for us to get a week straight of anomalous cold in early December You are exactly right.............. Some poor folks are hung up on other stuff................... Anyone who has paid attention knows that we were unusually cold during your stated period. For those who did not pay attention, my high temperature during that period was 37 compared to a long range normal high of 49 on December 4....................... Case closed....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 We’re a snow board. Nobody actually cares about cold unless it delivers snow to the lowlands. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We’re a snow board. Nobody actually cares about cold unless it delivers snow to the lowlands. Talk to psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Liquid from the sky this morning! 0.30 at 7 am and still falling. Currently 42.1/41.4 after a 59.8 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Liquid from the sky this morning! 0.30 at 7 am and still falling. Currently 42.1/41.4 after a 59.8 high. I've only received .13, but you're west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 A little too progressive for my liking. Wound up at .10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Around 0.2 here. One of those systems where the radar looked better than ground truth. Hoping to see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon…there’s hints of that on satellite. We’ll see if that translates east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I am glad I got the final leaf mulching out of the way yesterday... Looks pretty rainy this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 13 hours ago, pazzo83 said: lol - oh man, yeah I guess nothing is happening since your little station tied a record low. Oh wait This is a straightforwad graph. Where did you get it from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Not even 0.1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not even 0.1” .12” here so not much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Thankfully,we got a soaking Rain here in the far Southwestern part of Virginia. 1.04". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not even 0.1” Good thing it was not cold enough for snow. We would have been in late season meltdown mode. .03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Was this not to be an all day raining? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Was this not to be an all day raining? Suns out. It’s so bad now that models can’t even get winter rains correct within 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Was this not to be an all day raining? I don't believe today was supposed to be all day but Wednesday is. The amounts for today were always on the low end but even at that i do believe it was in and out quicker than advertised but in no way was supposed to be an all day affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Was this not to be an all day raining? Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast. Also a marginal risk for damaging winds for the eastern parts of the area, per the updated Day 3 SPC outlook 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast. Pretty much what I said only more intelligenter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Patchy dense fog on side roads on my way home between Frederick and Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 15 hours ago, MN Transplant said: We’re a snow board. Nobody actually cares about cold unless it delivers snow to the lowlands. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast. Small update to the forecast. Tonight we'll see some of the steadier rainfall poke into the area pre-dawn with the heaviest occurring late-morning and early afternoon with the setup looking quite heavy along and east of the Bay. One things for sure, we could use the rain, so it'll be a welcomed sight in terms of the drought. If only it was snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Thick fog this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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