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December Banter 2024

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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nw baltimore wx
nw baltimore wx

Bringing this over to banter, and now you’re going to be disappointed because it’s just a 36 ft sq setup for under the tree. Here’s a pretty cruddy photo from several years ago, and also a video link.

nw baltimore wx
nw baltimore wx

Sadly, no, but there was once Molly. But after 18 Christmas’s, she went to the big sleep.  The town folks weren’t as sad to see her go.  

TSG
TSG

Posted Images

Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

THERE AINT GONNABE NO SLEEP TIL BROOKLYN FOR WEEKS ON EFFIN' END!

Definitely everyone keep on tracking. Jan 7, 8, 9, possibly right thru the 17th. Very cold, numerous snow opportunities for the Mid Atlantic are imminent. Just trust me on this. When I tell you 12 inches in DC could be likely, it is NO stretch at all. This is a BROBDINGNAGIAN type winter pattern incoming folks. At least two weeks of serious cold, likely even longer. Deep winter is on its way, Washington DC. MillvilleWx has been tellin ya. You are going to be perusing models for at least three weeks. Stock up!!! IPA's, Stouts, truckloads of beer, food, anything you need to keep right on tracking, because its gonnabe your life! Get strong snow shovels and multiple blowers because many snow removal machines WILL blow many gaskets! People will be FIGHTING bloody for food and over parking spaces, IF they can even get out of their driveways! This could be Snowzilla, iteration 4.0. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY, VERY BAD ACROSS Georgia on up into North Maine!

In my neck o' the woods, I could even see some snow and sleet for a time. Very very cold for us too. We are gonna lose plants and have no water at all as all water lines down here will freeze solid for days. I have miniature donkeys on 6 acres and they may well be at risk. After three days without water, I will perish. Been damn nice knowin' ya!

No one ever said life was ever gonnabe fair! You want a fair life? Good luck.

This is going to be serious serious shyte. You have all been jonesing for it, and you are gonna get it. In Spades.

Western North Carolina is going to get UGLY, UGLY bad, real bad. People living in tents + this pattern = Utter Catastrophe for all time. 85 percent, easy.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

The facts get to you don’t they 

There are a few other negative Nellie’s  considered charming .  Model fact addresses not charming it appears  

it’s part of a weather discussion to discuss recent and ongoing blown model samples. It’s not all hopes and wishes 

We get to 3 days remaining and a low  IS coming near Atlanta and heading northeast then we got something to latch onto. Models even blew it last year within 24 hours after we had the one good Jan event. I remember  this and thus don’t rely on a myriad of examples showing low out to sea, over Norfolk, over DC or cutting into the lakes. 

I’ve got literally zero skin in this game and really couldn’t care less about whether there’s some sort of conspiracy going on with model output. I’m just tired of your regular interjections into discussion threads that say the same thing - “show all possibilities and claim victory afterwards.” Like…who really cares?

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

welp, family vacay has officially been moved up to start Sunday to dodge the Monday event. Time to shove all my chips onto the nothingburger this Friday/Saturday :thumbsdown:

I hope for us that it’s a brutal miss on your part, but that you enjoy the vacation!

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Just now, mattie g said:

I hope for us that it’s a brutal miss on your part, but that you enjoy the vacation!

thank you! It's going to be amazing... won't regret missing family time later in life as we all age and spread out across the country. Just wish the trip was planned to be a week earlier, lol

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

the Apple Weather app is telling people to prep for 7-9" of snow next Monday. Have got a couple of texts from friends and colleagues. Good stuff.

My carrot weather app has 6.9” for Monday haha 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mappy said:

My carrot weather app has 6.9” for Monday haha 

DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT. DON'T SAY IT.......:ph34r:

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I’ve got literally zero skin in this game and really couldn’t care less about whether there’s some sort of conspiracy going on with model output. I’m just tired of your regular interjections into discussion threads that say the same thing - “show all possibilities and claim victory afterwards.” Like…who really cares?

I hear you...those posts about "showing all possibilities and claiming victory afterward" annoy me because they are simply false and simplistic.  That kind of comment shows a real lack of understanding of just how model ensemble systems work.  There is no showing of "every possibility".  If that were literally true and taken to its illogical end, we'd see forecast QPF or snow of 0" to infinity inches (or some other ridiculous range).  That's not how they work.  Ensembles for a particular modeling system operate under the constraints of how the physics and dynamics of that modeling system are programmed.  The initial conditions are perturbed in various ways (different Centers use different techniques), and a certain number of ensemble members are produced, based upon computational resources, etc.

Do the ensembles sometimes show a wide range of solutions?  Sure!  Are the perfect or always great?  Of course not!  But they're a tool.  You look at them as a whole, you look at the mean, you try to find where there are potentially two camps or groupings of solutions, etc.  And you can compare what different model ensemble products are showing (EPS vs. GFS, for example).  They also give you an idea of how "confident" one can be in a model's overall interpretation of a solution, e.g., if the ensembles are grouped more closely and the deterministic counterpart is within that envelope of solutions.

Sorry to go off on a rant here, it wasn't aimed at you, I was just expounding a bit on what you said because I likewise get aggravated at comments like that (from this particular poster or others who say the same).

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