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December Banter 2024


George BM
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People's need to work out for all of us in real time their efforts to not be disappointed in the long range threads is such a weird thing. Like, we get it. It might not snow. We live here. We don't need to be reminded after every ensemble run that it might not snow. Or that good H5 looks don't mean it will snow. Or that cutters might happen. Or fish storms.  Like, we don't need that, EVERY TIME. Good grief. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated.

Let me ask you something...why do you do this thing where you preemptively argue when nobody even said anything? It's like throwing a punch at somebody in case they think about hitting you, lol

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4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

People's need to work out for all of us in real time their efforts to not be disappointed in the long range threads is such a weird thing. Like, we get it. It might not snow. We live here. We don't need to be reminded after every ensemble run that it might not snow. Or that good H5 looks don't mean it will snow. Or that cutters might happen. Or fish storms.  Like, we don't need that, EVERY TIME. Good grief. 

It’s one of the reasons I don’t say anything unless there is solid evidence to the potential for something. I don’t think people here realize how many storms this area misses compared to hits. I feel like some people think we live in New England. We are the same latitude as Lisbon, Portugal…. 
 

We are actually very fortunate we can even get snow here thanks to our proxy to Canada and the bridging from Russia to supply cold air. 

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Congrats to you all on your Christmas winter event, and congrats to us down in the Lone Star State as we celebrate 80 degrees today!!!!! With a 60 degree dewpoint! I was out conducting summer-like jebwalks, short ones to be sure, I had summer attire on, hard to believe with NYE only a week away! I was drinking gallons of hard lemonade like an overly hot horse after winning the Preakness!

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People who don’t tip are bad people. If you want to protest the way the system is then don’t go out to eat. That hurts the system. But if you go to a restaurant and pay the establishment but then stiff the person serving you knowing they are not paid a living wage and they are relying on your tip, you aren’t protesting a system, you’re just hurting someone, probably less fortunate than you. 

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6 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

for the record, THAT poster knows EXACTLY what he is doing when he does what he just did...

No people are way too sensitive to snow and over react to any analysis that isn’t positive. I made it clear it wasn’t a prediction. I was saying “if” that specific thing happens again it’s not the PDO or pacific long wave pattern the reason that specific thing happens is simply warming. That’s it. It won’t happen every time. Some setups will still work. We had an hecs miss us to the south just 5 years ago!   But less are working out and we all know why. I was just pointing out a specific example. Some then take that to be some doom and gloom larger message. 

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George BM I ask that you write us up a nice blockbuster blizzard event for the DC Area for the new January 2025 Banter thread. Please describe a developing superstorm with a huge Brobdingnagian TROWAL and Mammoth -like snow amounts for the entire region, to the tune of 6 feet along with 40 to 70 mph winds from the NE.

Let's start the New Year off proper.

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6 hours ago, Interstate said:

So all Washington needs to do is win one game... or have the Falcons or Bucs lose a game... Hmmm... I have seen this train wreck before... I have faith in them though.

They hold the tiebreaker over Green Bay so it would be a huge bonus if they could win both and the Pack lose one.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

They hold the tiebreaker over Green Bay so it would be a huge bonus if they could win both and the Pack lose one.

I am not worried about the tiebreaker... lol.  I am worried about them winning one more game.  Falcons and then the resurging Cowboys.   They have the hardest of the three teams.

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2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am not worried about the tiebreaker... lol.  I am worried about them winning one more game.  Falcons and then the resurging Cowboys.   They have the hardest of the three teams.

Well, without a higher seed, I don’t think it matters. Winning on the road in round one at Philly, Minnesota, or Detroit is a tall order.

Not to mention that losing twice to Dallas this year would be really disappointing.

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34 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Well, without a higher seed, I don’t think it matters. Winning on the road in round one at Philly, Minnesota, or Detroit is a tall order.

Not to mention that losing twice to Dallas this year would be really disappointing.

Well losing to Dallas twice could have them sitting on the couch come playoff time.

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58 years ago today in Augusta County, December 24, 1966, snowfall was tapering off at 4 pm after dropping 8 inches in 24 hours. The temperature was 22 degrees.

The PDO was -0.21,  The NAO was +0.72, The AO was -1.40........................... 

The PDO and NAO are no huge deal but the AO is nearly always deeply negative.

This should often apply in today's world.

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A Christmas Carol by H2O

Jibenezer Scrooge was the most doubting weenie in all of LondonDC.  Every Nov when the winds off the ThamesPotomac started to chill from 90F to 45F Jibenezer Scrooge would look at the CanCips and yell "bah, humbug. Winter Cancel!"  The long range weenie carolers would sing "Sing we now of weak Nina" and O, Come on ye Euro at 360" and "Walking in a winter -NAO" for days and days but ol Jibenezer would just say "bah, +6C anomaly temps in Nanook AK. Winters over"

His partner Eskimo Jacob Marley was equally doubtful.  Upon his passing he came to Scrooge and said you will be visited by 3 ghosts.  The ghost of Xmas Jan96/Feb 2010/Snopocalypse, the ghost of Torchmas present, and the ghost of Xmas MountPSU.  

On Xmas eve Jibenezer was visited by the first ghost.  It showed him images and maps of the best storms ever with no mixing and SN+++ and puking fatties.  The glory of days and weeks of fauquier schools closed  and when bread and milk and TP were scarce.  A tear formed in ol Scrooge's eye for those were the days when DC snowed.  

The second ghost of torches present came next.  All it showed was mud. To which Jibenezer said "so how is this any different than the last 5 years?"  And the ghost said, "Got me.  But suck it, Trebek."  So Scrooge just scoffed and asked if the Commanders would win the SB so he could put all his money on them in Vegas.  cause if it ain't gonna snow then time to make some $$$.  The ghost said it will be the Chiefs cause the refs love Mahomes.  

The third ghost of Xmas MountPSU was last.  This ghost showed every long range map that showed the best winter patterns ever from 7 days out.  All the +PNA, MJO, -NAO, stratospheric warming polar vortex, mountain torque at Mt Everest, gnat farting to change SSTs in the Indian ocean, Mongolian vodka cold one could ever ask for.  A truly epic pattern that was shown to come.  And then the ghost revealed the model that showed all of it and it was the CRAS.  

So Scrooge woke up to 33 and rain on Xmas day.  None of xmas past glory nor future hope was to happen.  What the models showed never came to be.  Just like last year when the fucking best snows were 10 days away and then disappeared like Aaron Rodgers playoff hopes.  But Scrooge had already canceled winter.  Tiny Weather Will and his probability crutch maps soldiered on.  Every time he posted a 240 hour snow map an angel got his wings(ah shit, mixed up my Xmas stories.) But he then said "GFS bless us, every weenie."

 

To that end, I want to wish everyone here a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.  Be safe, may you enjoy time spent with family and friends.  And maybe, just maybe, Santa will give us some snow this winter.  

 

 

Except me.  I will have rain.  All the rain.  Even if its 20F and no warm nose at 900lvl, I will have rain.   

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

A Christmas Carol by H2O

Jibenezer Scrooge was the most doubting weenie in all of LondonDC.  Every Nov when the winds off the ThamesPotomac started to chill from 90F to 45F Jibenezer Scrooge would look at the CanCips and yell "bah, humbug. Winter Cancel!"  The long range weenie carolers would sing "Sing we now of weak Nina" and O, Come on ye Euro at 360" and "Walking in a winter -NAO" for days and days but ol Jibenezer would just say "bah, +6C anomaly temps in Nanook AK. Winters over"

His partner Eskimo Jacob Marley was equally doubtful.  Upon his passing he came to Scrooge and said you will be visited by 3 ghosts.  The ghost of Xmas Jan96/Feb 2010/Snopocalypse, the ghost of Torchmas present, and the ghost of Xmas MountPSU.  

On Xmas eve Jibenezer was visited by the first ghost.  It showed him images and maps of the best storms ever with no mixing and SN+++ and puking fatties.  The glory of days and weeks of fauquier schools closed  and when bread and milk and TP were scarce.  A tear formed in ol Scrooge's eye for those were the days when DC snowed.  

The second ghost of torches present came next.  All it showed was mud. To which Jibenezer said "so how is this any different than the last 5 years?"  And the ghost said, "Got me.  But suck it, Trebek."  So Scrooge just scoffed and asked if the Commanders would win the SB so he could put all his money on them in Vegas.  cause if it ain't gonna snow then time to make some $$$.  The ghost said it will be the Chiefs cause the refs love Mahomes.  

The third ghost of Xmas MountPSU was last.  This ghost showed every long range map that showed the best winter patterns ever from 7 days out.  All the +PNA, MJO, -NAO, stratospheric warming polar vortex, mountain torque at Mt Everest, gnat farting to change SSTs in the Indian ocean, Mongolian vodka cold one could ever ask for.  A truly epic pattern that was shown to come.  And then the ghost revealed the model that showed all of it and it was the CRAS.  

So Scrooge woke up to 33 and rain on Xmas day.  None of xmas past glory nor future hope was to happen.  What the models showed never came to be.  Just like last year when the fucking best snows were 10 days away and then disappeared like Aaron Rodgers playoff hopes.  But Scrooge had already canceled winter.  Tiny Weather Will and his probability crutch maps soldiered on.  Every time he posted a 240 hour snow map an angel got his wings(ah shit, mixed up my Xmas stories.) But he then said "GFS bless us, every weenie."

 

To that end, I want to wish everyone here a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.  Be safe, may you enjoy time spent with family and friends.  And maybe, just maybe, Santa will give us some snow this winter.  

 

 

Except me.  I will have rain.  All the rain.  Even if its 20F and no warm nose at 900lvl, I will have rain.   

This is beyond Fabulous! The snow gods WILL smile on the DC region this winter, bringing lots of deep powder and vodka cold! H2O this is so damn good you just won a full semi chock full of ice cold IPA's free of charge!

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