December 2024 General Discussion

[sbnwx85]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Just absolutely blows me away here. This should be a borderline blizzard, yet hardly any snow on the backside

 

**HEAVY SIGH** yeahhhhhh

[hawkeye_wx]

We managed to reach the low 50s this afternoon thanks to a bit of sunshine.

[Torchageddon]

Got up to 10C, sun came out around 3pm and all was good once it was. So much melt. Green grass showing up in spots.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Monday night/Tuesday system may end up a bit more interesting than it appeared yesterday.  Models had mostly gone south, with both the GFS and Euro showing nothing here.  However, the Euro has jumped back north quite a bit and now has 2-3 inches of wet snow through central Iowa.  The NAM agrees with the Euro.  Other models are still south.

[cyclone77]

Show shits the bed before reaching the MS River.  How fitting lol.

[A-L-E-K]

Nice rain defo

[bowtie`]

1.29" overnight and this morning so far. Now to see how much the backside adds to it. Glad it is all liquid.

[nwohweather]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Nice rain defo

With some cold air this would be an epic crusher. Brutal to watch

[cyclone77]

Yeah this is a waste of a perfect setup for Champaign up through southern LM.  Would've been a crusher for that narrow swath.

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

With some cold air this would be an epic crusher. Brutal to watch

unknown precipitation? must be sleet.

You're right. With colder air we would say that this low pressure position would bring a nasty snowstorm in Michigan and the Chicago area. The 850mb temps aren't close, though, really, as you would want a zone of -6C to -10C for the deformation zone and some -4C values for guaranteed snow. I would say that if things were 9degrees C cooler, we'd still manage to get rain right at Toledo, or possibly freezing rain.

[Chambana]

25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah this is a waste of a perfect setup for Champaign up through southern LM.  Would've been a crusher for that narrow swath.

No doubt, soul stealing to waste this setup with mild air. We’ll see what the system next weekend brings. 

[Chinook]

my place just got the warm front fog.

[mimillman]

I’m genuinely not sure why guidance has depicted rain for majority of the NYE event? Sure airmass is stale but supportive of frozen precip down to 925mb with the exception of the first few hours. Low placement seems ideal 

[bowtie`]

8 hours ago, bowtie` said:

1.29" overnight and this morning so far. Now to see how much the backside adds to it. Glad it is all liquid.

Add another 0.51" on the backside so far. A total of 1.80" for this system so far. Quite squishy outside right now.

[hlcater]

Yea that system tuesday could drop some cement out here if things trend right. NAM/Euro anecdotally have seemed to handle these setups pretty well in the past and they're the ones showing snow this time so I guess we'll see. 

[cyclone77]

Looks like 0.1-0.3" of cold rain for the QCA.

[Stevo6899]

On 12/28/2024 at 1:46 PM, nwohweather said:

Just absolutely blows me away here. This should be a borderline blizzard, yet hardly any snow on the backside

 

While it sucks, it's satisfying that even with rain storms in the winter, Detroit gets the dry slot. Western lower tho however would've been crushed if this was all snow. 

[Torchageddon]

I'm under the low, my ws is showing 991mb - not 983 that dumb receiver keeps showing 10mb too low. Temp went up just in the last few hours to 8C/48F. Very sharp rise in the last hour! Even got a lightning strike detected mins ago. Lots of rain today 14mm thus far snowpack taking a beating.

[sbnwx85]

Picked up a couple inches of rain today. Oh what could’ve been.

[Harry Perry]

7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Picked up a couple inches of rain today. Oh what could’ve been.

I was just thinking, had this been all snow… when was the last time it snowed, heavy, for close to 24 hours straight?

 

Would’ve been nice. Maybe someday. Lots of potential on the table in the coming week(s). 
 

[Chicago Storm]

I’m genuinely not sure why guidance has depicted rain for majority of the NYE event? Sure airmass is stale but supportive of frozen precip down to 925mb with the exception of the first few hours. Low placement seems ideal 

The lowest 2-3kft temp/dew point (Wet bulb) levels are into a sub-optimal range.

The NAM is colder/drier in the lowest levels, thus has the most snow modeled (Easily).

[WestMichigan]

12 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

While it sucks, it's satisfying that even with rain storms in the winter, Detroit gets the dry slot. Western lower tho however would've been crushed if this was all snow. 

I was commenting on that same thing about how great of a snowstorm this would have been to my family yesterday.  Widespread 1"+ of rainfall yesterday would have made for a nice snowfall.

[Stevo6899]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I was commenting on that same thing about how great of a snowstorm this would have been to my family yesterday.  Widespread 1"+ of rainfall yesterday would have made for a nice snowfall.

And another one right behind it with decent moisture and all rain. Mother nature has a sick sense of humor. Looks like temps well below normal late week for awhile, 10+ days in suppression territory. Down In florida and temps will be in the low 60s.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models have all gone back south with tonight's system, so I will likely get nothing.  Even southern Iowa won't get much, though... just some modest rain and a bit of wet snow.

[nwohweather]

20 hours ago, Chinook said:

unknown precipitation? must be sleet.

You're right. With colder air we would say that this low pressure position would bring a nasty snowstorm in Michigan and the Chicago area. The 850mb temps aren't close, though, really, as you would want a zone of -6C to -10C for the deformation zone and some -4C values for guaranteed snow. I would say that if things were 9degrees C cooler, we'd still manage to get rain right at Toledo, or possibly freezing rain.

Agreed. Tough to see a complete lack of cold air with this type of track though, the cold air does look like it's ready to rush the gates though

13 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

While it sucks, it's satisfying that even with rain storms in the winter, Detroit gets the dry slot. Western lower tho however would've been crushed if this was all snow. 

It's a typical track for a low ejecting out of the plains like that however

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Agreed. Tough to see a complete lack of cold air with this type of track though, the cold air does look like it's ready to rush the gates though

It's a typical track for a low ejecting out of the plains like that however

Yup toledo and detroit need a gulf low or a 4 corners lp, in combination with cold air in place. It seems tough to get that.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

24+ hours of dense fog. Freezing fog at night. Last day above freezing for awhile today. Cold and dry. Frost depths are going to be impressive if we don’t get some insulating snowcover. 

[michsnowfreak]

28 hour storm total rainfall 1.67", trace of snow. 

[Snowstorms]

2 more days left including today, but December will likely finish 2-3 degrees above average. Our 7th consecutive warm December. Snow wise, we will finish about 2" below average. Only silver lining in this string of unprecedented warm Decembers, is that only 3 have finished below average since 2016 snow wise. 

[Maxim]

As of 2 PM CST:

 

ORD: 41°

MDW: 41°

PWK: 43°

UGN: 48°

 

interesting