December 2024 General Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Do the Michigan WFOs play a game of chicken to see who will issue a WWA first?

The clipper loses some steam by the time it gets here so it looks like a widespread 1-3" snowfall. Imo that's more of a "special weather statement" where 2-4" is advisory. DTX is usually decent on advisory timing. GRR cracks me up bc everything is an advisory. Heavy synoptic snow coming with 5-7"? They'll issue an advisory instead of a warning. Lake squalls forecast to drop an inch with isolated higher totals? They also issue an advisory. 

[mnchaserguy]

19F, 1/2mi visibility and moderate to heavy snow.
Looking really good out there this morning. MPX bumped the metro up to 5-7”

Looks like this thing came in well south of where the models showed it would. Wonder where the bullseye ends up now.


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[OrdIowPitMsp]

10 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

Looks like this thing came in well south of where the models showed it would. Wonder where the bullseye ends up now.


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Yeah the WSW was expanded south, seems to be the trend this winter.

Airport reported 1.6” at 6am. 

[mnchaserguy]

Yeah the WSW was expanded south, seems to be the trend this winter.
Airport reported 1.6” at 6am. 

Faribault reporting 4.3” at 7:00. That is where the heaviest band set up and sat this morning. Guessing I have about 3” at my house. Dry slot looks to be working in from the south. We’ll see how far north it goes and how much havoc it wrecks on the snow.


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[Brian D]

I'll be surprised if we get 4-6" up along the head of the lake. Dry air keeping things at bay. Std radar showing precip aloft, but not making it to the ground as enhanced radar is showing along with my eyes.  LP too far W to S. South of the Lake getting in on some good action, tho. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Fairbault to Rochester up to the southern suburbs might be the jackpot zone. I’m eyeballing around 4”, there’s a 5.2” report in Richfield. 
 

Expecting a lull late morning until the wrap around bands come through this afternoon. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Seems like things might be a touch south of models. Just enough to make a slight difference to those on the extreme edge, may take me from a DAB to an 1.5". 

[A-L-E-K]

saukville buried 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

6” reports starting to flow in south of the metro. That area is in line for more moderate snow in the coming hours. Might be a zone of 8-10” when all is said and done. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

MSP reporting 5” at the noon update. Should tack on another 1-2” this afternoon. 

[Danny8]

15 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Do the Michigan WFOs play a game of chicken to see who will issue a WWA first?

Does Grand Rapids just have a higher threshold for winter weather than Milwaukee or Detroit offices? For example the new cold warnings have different thresholds 

 

[Malacka11]

I don't know how much snow we'll get but at least the sunny skies out ahead of the first band of snow showers moving through the area with this clipper looks cool

[mnchaserguy]

Got a solid 4” here in my backyard. I was on the northern end of the heavier band this morning. I bet places just to my north got half of that, and we were in the bullseye on everything leading up to this event. Might add another inch this afternoon, but it looks like the main band will stay south of me.


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[bowtie`]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

saukville buried 

Painted grass to be buried under 2" of snow?

[A-L-E-K]

insulation for the palms

[Snowstorms]

EC issued a weather advisory for the GTA. Potential for 2-4" thanks to lake enhancement. But maybe higher or lower depending on where the band sets up and its strength. Areas near Oakville and Hamilton may see upwards of 15-20cm (6-8"). 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Heaviest totals are going to end up 50-75 miles south of where it was modeled. Snow is just about done in the metro but it’s rocking in southern Minnesota. 

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Heaviest totals are going to end up 50-75 miles south of where it was modeled. Snow is just about done in the metro but it’s rocking in southern Minnesota. 

This is a good reminder for the young winter. Even now cast models can be off by 50+ miles, to say nothing of so.ething 3, 5, 7 days out.

[cyclone77]

Had a brief but very nice burst of heavy snow around 3pm.  Only lasted a few minutes, but it looked legit for a bit, and easily best snow intensity of season so far.  Picked up a few tenths pretty quickly.

Thermal ridge moving in, 32 here, but just southwest in MLI they are up to 38.  40s just south.

[Chinook]

some snow observations in Wisconsin

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good reminder for the young winter. Even now cast models can be off by 50+ miles, to say nothing of so.ething 3, 5, 7 days out.

Models had this as a northern Minnesota event 5-7 days ago. Forecast discussions last week were doom and gloom about white Christmas chances. Now it’s pretty much a lock MSP has 1” on the ground at 6am on 12/25

[Stevo6899]

Snowing pretty decently and rgem hinting at some decent banding setting up along 59. Guess it's better than nothing.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

@michsnowfreakI pulled some text from forecast discussions late last week. The Canadian really nailed this storm. 

Friday 12/13/24 1:35pm 

Looking ahead, unless we see
the boom scenario for snow tomorrow, it is looking more like a
brown Christmas this year as additional opportunities for snow
look grim.

Then there is this nugget from Saturday 12/14/2024

The most
likely scenario right now is that we see a clipper go to our north,
with the heaviest snow up along the international border. For us,
it`s looking like we get into a clipper warm sector, which may allow
for a quick warmup and even thaw for Thursday before we see another
modified arctic airmass and below normal temperatures for next
weekend. 

 

[cyclone77]

Precip has moved back in and now it's in the form of rain.

[thomp2mp]

Quick dusting here in Waterford over the past 45 minutes but not snowing at the moment. At least everything looks pretty.

[Chicago Storm]

Brief burst of +SN here at ORD with this WAA wing of precip moving through, which produced a quick 0.5" of accumulation.

It has since turned over to -FZRASN, with a light glaze of ice on colder objects.

[RogueWaves]

20F and pouring pixies this evening. Reminds me of a late winter snow when it's just too cold to get decent qpf. Ironic after Sat-Monday torching. At least 07-08 melt-offs were followed by legit moist storms, many of which were big.

[RogueWaves]

22 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Do the Michigan WFOs play a game of chicken to see who will issue a WWA first?

Not sure you were being serious or not? GRR's notorious for conference calls and talking the downstream offices (DTW & APX) into holding off or not issuing anything. Basically they like to downplay most winter events except LES as mentioned by @michsnowfreak. I know some just north of GR have had Warning headlines this year and gotten only 2" of LES. Meanwhile, they have issued a WWA for 10 inches of synoptic snow in their non-LES counties. I had 8.5" of concrete snow when I lived downstate and I don't think I had any headline until it was almost over. 

Speaking of..

"An inch down already.  Steady light to moderate snow.  A lull is coming but this should have been an advisory.  Roads are getting slick    GRR blew the first part of this forecast saying there would be no impacts in Kent County this afternoon."

[Spartman]

Suicide weather and highs stuck in the low to mid-30s today.  One of the only dry days this week, but was a wasted one today. Definitely that kind of a week when there's only one day with any sun at all during the week.

[madwx]

Will likely end up around 5” here once all is said and done. Nice slight overperformance.  Can see how much if any survives the Christmas warmup