Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As snakebitten as we have been south of Pike i am feeling like a rug pull could happen at last minute. But on the other hand these types of events are the ones that have done well in this area. I am treading softly 

Southeast of 84 is probably cooked. I think you should be in line for a good 1-2'' and maybe upwards of 3 depending on exactly how quickly this strengthens. One thing to watch Wednesday is how high temperatures get too. Temperatures could struggle (away from the coast) to get much above the upper 30's. Cloud cover will increase so temperatures won't drop much during the evening. Certainly elevations will be favored for 3-4'' of snow but most should at least a good coating to 1'' (away from the coast). 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As snakebitten as we have been south of Pike i am feeling like a rug pull could happen at last minute. But on the other hand these types of events are the ones that have done well in this area. I am treading softly 

I’m hedging conservative on this one so far. C-2 for CT. But if there’s an area that could do well it’s yours and the NW hills. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Icon is 1 to 2 spot 3 ...   12z Reggie is 

[ineedsnow]

495 east is meh

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m hedging conservative on this one so far. C-2 for CT. But if there’s an area that could do well it’s yours and the NW hills. 

We'll see how this evolves in time for the NW Hills but I'm hedging towards highest amounts from Worcester County in northeast Connecticut with about 2-4''...I think there is a low probability someone could pull off a 5 or 6'' total. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll see how this evolves in time for the NW Hills but I'm hedging towards highest amounts from Worcester County in northeast Connecticut with about 2-4''...I think there is a low probability someone could pull off a 5 or 6'' total. 

NW just seems to do better generally not having to deal with a torched BL. Saving a tenth of qpf could add a little more there compared to my valley backyard that’ll be 17° this morning and struggle to drop below 38 when it matters lol. Agree that the best “dynamics” are east, but not sure the ceiling is that high. We hope. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NW just seems to do better generally not having to deal with a torched BL. Saving a tenth of qpf could add a little more there compared to my valley backyard that’ll be 17° this morning and struggle to drop below 38 when it matters lol. Agree that the best “dynamics” are east, but not sure the ceiling is that high. We hope. 

I think we need to watch for this to really blossom and just in enough time for a narrow zone of heavy snow to impact those areas I mentioned. Have to check out some 12z bufkit soundings for ORH and IJD and see what they show for lift/snow growth. 

[NorEastermass128]

It’s kind of nice knowing I have zero shot with this. Hoping the Hills can squeeze out an inch or three before the cold. 

[WxWatcher007]

GFS looks a touch more robust. 

[ma blizzard]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS looks a touch more robust. 

best GFS run yet .. looks like solid advisory amounts NW of 84/495

[weatherwiz]

you have good llvl WAA moving into sub-freezing llvl temps. Elevated areas east certainly in line for some decent accumulations. 

[ineedsnow]

That lake band/ moisture really enhances the snowfall around here 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

you have good llvl WAA moving into sub-freezing llvl temps. Elevated areas east certainly in line for some decent accumulations. 

I like what I’ve seen from the NAM and now GFS. Let’s make that a trend…

I’d roll the dice with that even here imby.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I like what I’ve seen from the NAM and now GFS. Let’s make that a trend…

I’d roll the dice with that even here imby.

yeah you're right enough on the line where you have a shot for 1-2''. As we know, snowfall rates can do alot so if we can at least get some signals for a period of heavier precipitation rates that will go along way for marginal areas. That might not be enough though for coastal areas. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah you're right enough on the line where you have a shot for 1-2''. As we know, snowfall rates can do alot so if we can at least get some signals for a period of heavier precipitation rates that will go along way for marginal areas. That might not be enough though for coastal areas. 

Yeah I think coastal areas (especially SE CT) are cooked. Just have to hope for a burst that drops a quick light coating in the overnight period. At least given the look right now. 

[ORH_wxman]

Some pretty decent snow growth profiles on the GFS for central CT up through central MA and even getting up into NE MA. GFS BL is decently cold too so I'd expect accumulations easily in the elevations and prob even lower areas too near 495 and down toward N Windham county and NW RI if that verified.

[weatherwiz]

Could be some intense snow squalls Thursday for NNE.

[CoastalWx]

SW flow may be good for the wrn slopes like Hubby to Kevin. Man a month from now would work probably right to the coast. Hoping for some flakes here at least. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SW flow may be good for the wrn slopes like Hubby to Kevin. Man a month from now would work probably right to the coast. Hoping for some flakes here at least. 

Kevin does well on SW flow in the BL. His terrain actually causes noticeable upslope in that direction unlike a NE wind. His area to W ORH hills will prob do the best in SNE.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin does well on SW flow in the BL. His terrain actually causes noticeable upslope in that direction unlike a NE wind. His area to W ORH hills will prob do the best in SNE.

Hate to see it.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hate to see it.

There's still something unsettling about the Canadian suite giving almost zero precip while the GFS is trying to spit out low-end warning level snows in some spots. I'm guessing the canadian suite is mostly out to lunch, but the GFS is likely too juiced. Euro/NAM seem like a decent compromise right now hedging more toward GFS.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still something unsettling about the Canadian suite giving almost zero precip while the GFS is trying to spit out low-end warning level snows in some spots. I'm guessing the canadian suite is mostly out to lunch, but the GFS is likely too juiced. Euro/NAM seem like a decent compromise right now hedging more toward GFS.

I saw that. It's cold aloft and seems like the system juices up when winds go srly off the waters to the south. You have good isentropic lift and a strong s/w. But the old timer myth in me says it's hard to go big on south winds like Brian said earlier. 

[Prismshine Productions]

There's still something unsettling about the Canadian suite giving almost zero precip while the GFS is trying to spit out low-end warning level snows in some spots. I'm guessing the canadian suite is mostly out to lunch, but the GFS is likely too juiced. Euro/NAM seem like a decent compromise right now hedging more toward GFS.

CMC has no closed vortex, I think that is why

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[dryslot]

12z Euro pretty juiced up in Maine, Moreso then 06z, Warning snow for a good portion of the state, Portions of NH/VT and advisory snow further south into MA/CT verbatim.

[Damage In Tolland]

I can think of a few events like this with SW upslope here. The funny thing is I recall Hunch area and here both having about the same amount of snow. You can kind of see that reflected on some of qpf guidance today . We’ll see what happens . Hopefully no rug pulls 

[dendrite]

At quick glance the ec seems to be hitting the waa the hardest too

[ma blizzard]

925 looks a bit warmer on the EURO than GFS

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can think of a few events like this with SW upslope here. The funny thing is I recall Hunch area and here both having about the same amount of snow. You can kind of see that reflected on some of qpf guidance today . We’ll see what happens . Hopefully no rug pulls 

925 gets dicey for you

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

925 looks a bit warmer on the EURO than GFS

It is def warmer than GFS...but still likely cold enough for the areas we were already talking about in the interior from near Kevin up through ORH hills.