NECT Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, Modfan2 said: Up to 4.5” here in Brooklyn, temp creeping up to 33F Thought Brooklyn would be an inch at best. Was hoping for 3" here, way above expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2.7” this morning in Southington — certainly more than I’d expected. Has melted a fair bit in the past couple hours at 37F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 light snow still falling.. the radar to the west looks awesome hope it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1.7 final, pending snow squalls later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 7.5” here in Barre, MA 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 22 minutes ago, NECT said: Thought Brooklyn would be an inch at best. Was hoping for 3" here, way above expectations. Yup, that’s what I was going with; over performed here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 21 minutes ago, RDRY said: Somewhat off topic, but this is intriguing. https://www.barrons.com/news/google-says-ai-weather-model-masters-15-day-forecast-cdc5793d I find this to be nothing but voodoo and actually its kind of gross because there are people being taken advantage of for this type of stuff, particularly if they're paying a great deal of money. There have been a few articles on the "success" of these AI models. For example, that one tropical system last year that went into NS and there was the article that said the google AI nailed that 10 days out.... Well what do they mean by nailing something 10 or 15 days out? That what the product showed for D10 and D15 verified? But how did it do on D14, 13, 12, 11, ..., 3,2,1? Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do. The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities. I mean pattern recognition is great but humans can do that too and while the weather pattern is important its how the pieces move and evolve which is more important and there is zero chance in hell AI will ever figure that out because this goes beyond "patterns". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 50 mph gusts later. @ineedsnoware we going to tear 'em down after sunset? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I find this to be nothing but voodoo and actually its kind of gross because there are people being taken advantage of for this type of stuff, particularly if they're paying a great deal of money. There have been a few articles on the "success" of these AI models. For example, that one tropical system last year that went into NS and there was the article that said the google AI nailed that 10 days out.... Well what do they mean by nailing something 10 or 15 days out? That what the product showed for D10 and D15 verified? But how did it do on D14, 13, 12, 11, ..., 3,2,1? Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do. The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities. I mean pattern recognition is great but humans can do that too and while the weather pattern is important its how the pieces move and evolve which is more important and there is zero chance in hell AI will ever figure that out because this goes beyond "patterns". I know from your past posts that this is your default knee-jerk reaction to any "AI" related weather posts, but you should really read the scientific paper before declaring this as just "GARBAGE". You're a smart guy, take the time to read and learn before making proclamations. If you took that time you'd know that this statement of yours; "The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities", is wrong for this particular AI model. It is a hybrid approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Congrats to all the SNE peeps who overperformed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Meat of the warning headed for Mount Seymour, LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: 50 mph gusts later. @ineedsnoware we going to tear 'em down after sunset? We hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 What is timing on big wind rips today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 22 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Yup, that’s what I was going with; over performed here as well! You had yourself getting nothing yesterday evening lol…two storms in a row over performed(the last one for NNE)…tenor of the season is set. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Squall on the doorstep of @Sey-Mour Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 We often play catch up late in the storms. Have had an inch an inch and a half in the last hour and a half. Perfect snow, growth and fluff just piling up. Probably about 3 1/2 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Squall on the doorstep of @Sey-Mour Snow It’s here ok so far windy above trees .. edit as I say that here comes the wind and white out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 8.5” https://i.imgur.com/zVTCUOm.jpeg 14 hours ago, powderfreak said: Big lull now after the initial push of WAA. ~2” at the ski area cam and now dry slot flurries. 12 hours ago, mreaves said: Did you go to the grand opening of the new bridge the other day? So Kevin comes up to Vermont and drives past all of our places. The storm comes and we all get 2 inches or less and Tolland gets dumped on. Only conclusion is Kevin stole our snow. Congrats. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 33 minutes ago, metagraphica said: I know from your past posts that this is your default knee-jerk reaction to any "AI" related weather posts, but you should really read the scientific paper before declaring this as just "GARBAGE". You're a smart guy, take the time to read and learn before making proclamations. If you took that time you'd know that this statement of yours; "The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities", is wrong for this particular AI model. It is a hybrid approach. I find this topic very interesting so I created a thread hoping that a discussion can occur sans whining and sobbing about current weather: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 minutes ago, klw said: So Kevin comes up to Vermont and drives past all of our places. The storm comes and we all get 2 inches or less and Tolland gets dumped on. Only conclusion is Kevin stole our snow. Congrats. Hey Jay Peak reported 10-14" overnight... not sure how, a friend says it skis like maybe 5" new, but maybe someone got dumped on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 26 minutes ago, metagraphica said: I know from your past posts that this is your default knee-jerk reaction to any "AI" related weather posts, but you should really read the scientific paper before declaring this as just "GARBAGE". You're a smart guy, take the time to read and learn before making proclamations. If you took that time you'd know that this statement of yours; "The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities", is wrong for this particular AI model. It is a hybrid approach. I do want to invest some time to find any published, peer-reviewed papers which provide highly detailed analysis but IMO, much of this stuff is hyped up. All you hear about is a success story and within these success stories they fail to tell you about the non-successes. For example, if 10 storms were tracked and analyzed and the model nailed 1 of the 10...the story will be ran on that 1 and you'll get a title like you see here, "AI Weather Model masters 15-day Forecast"...but there will be nothing on the other 9. AI will probably help drastically improve short-term forecasting during extreme weather events, such as the flooding event that occurred in Connecticut back in August but I don't buy it will ever become more accurate overall with increasing time stamps. Weather, physics, chemical processes are all way too complex and I'm sorry but AI is not going to ever figure that out because there is way more to this than just what happened historically. That atmosphere is extremely fluid and there are influences that we still don't know about or fully understand and a computer or algorithm isn't just going to magically figure that out. AI still struggles with generated images of people and objects...so we're to expect it will figure out the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 White rain squall here. How exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I find this to be nothing but voodoo and actually its kind of gross because there are people being taken advantage of for this type of stuff, particularly if they're paying a great deal of money. There have been a few articles on the "success" of these AI models. For example, that one tropical system last year that went into NS and there was the article that said the google AI nailed that 10 days out.... Well what do they mean by nailing something 10 or 15 days out? That what the product showed for D10 and D15 verified? But how did it do on D14, 13, 12, 11, ..., 3,2,1? Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do. The idea of being able to process data much more quickly is phenomenal but if I understand correctly, these AI models are not run with equations and physics...it just looks for pattern similarities. I mean pattern recognition is great but humans can do that too and while the weather pattern is important its how the pieces move and evolve which is more important and there is zero chance in hell AI will ever figure that out because this goes beyond "patterns". From Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9#Fig3 “As shown in the scorecard of Fig. 3, the forecasts of GenCast are significantly more skilful (P < 0.05) than that of ENS on 97.2% of our 1,320 variable, lead time and vertical level combinations (and 99.6% of targets at lead times greater than 36 h)“ Seems like a significant improvement on its face, would leave the more technical analysis of the graphic to those more knowledgeable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Solid inch or so more of depth up by the Bristol line at 310ft compared to 220ft where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Mediocre squall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 White rain at DAW. Looks like another good round incoming. Mod+ rates in the last one, but too warm to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Mediocre squall The one that Tip shared the other day from the Midwest now that was the real deal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: From Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9#Fig3 “As shown in the scorecard of Fig. 3, the forecasts of GenCast are significantly more skilful (P < 0.05) than that of ENS on 97.2% of our 1,320 variable, lead time and vertical level combinations (and 99.6% of targets at lead times greater than 36 h)“ Seems like a significant improvement on its face, would leave the more technical analysis of the graphic to those more knowledgeable So it has greater skill with 2m temperature, sea-level pressure, and wind? That isn't exactly mind blowing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Want to clarify...I was calling the claim garbage, not the model or the work into it. If a claim is going to be made that a weather event was nailed 10 days our or 15 days out...at least indicate the model held true to that solution for each run leading up to that day. If google AI had a category 3 hitting SNE at D15 and it ended up occurring...if between it showed solutions ranging from OTS or into the mid-Atlantic, or a weak storm...well you can't say it "nailed it". That's what I am calling garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: So it has greater skill with 2m temperature, sea-level pressure, and wind? That isn't exactly mind blowing, IMO. Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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