Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I won't mind it ending up all wet, as I know its only going be a nuisance and I don't need another hour stacked onto my already arduous commute. Not enough to take the day off-

I know how you feel, my job is much easier without snow but I love snow, 2015 was hard inspecting houses, needed snowshoes, it was so epic I loved it regardless if I had to work harder.

[DJln491]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those Directweather guy is insufferable, too....every video is headlined by "get ready"..."prepare now" and every winter outlook is an Armageddon secnario for the east coast.

probably trying to pander to the extreme end of the "preparer's mindset" that is out there these days, adjacent to the conspiracy theory stuff.  "buy my special tactical flashlight, you'll need this when the zombies come."  it's profitable, unfortunately.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is who I thought of...did you see he called called out for presenting an Accuwx product as the "Mark Model"?

These YT "forecasters" are such BS... and yet even people who SHOULD know better can't help looking. My best friend used to send me links asking "what do you think about this" Had to tell him to stop, he gets mad I won't even look for a minute LOL.

[UnitedWx]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must be my lack of perspective...seems like a lot to me, but must require millions.

Even on YouTube, you need to be at 200K plus subscribers to be making anything significant. A friend in NH has a mechanical repair channel and does really well, but at least it's an educational content unlike these fake Mets

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS coming in juicy

[HoarfrostHubb]

My area with 0.8" qpf... that would leave a mark

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS coming in juicy

And cold. Not sure if we can trust it but that gets interesting down to atleast 495, perhaps even inside

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh boy 

[Prismshine Productions]

If other models jump aboard this is gonna cause a lot of people to be happy

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

Soundings tomorrow morning at HFD and IJD

 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Soundings tomorrow morning at HFD and IJD

 

I'm wondering if they're going to throw up some winter weather advisories for Litchfield Hartford talon in Windham counties?

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Soundings tomorrow morning at HFD and IJD

 

Looking at BDL on the NAM bufkit...NAM isn't bad for BDL. I was actually a bit surprised the ratio was as high as it is but the lift into the DGZ isn't too bad. This could be a case where BDL ends up with 2-3'' (which may be on the high side but I think its doable) while HFD ends up with like a coating. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is basically all snow from 495 outward. Not sure I buy it but we’ll see if short term guidance comes in cooler as we get closer this afternoon. 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm wondering if they're going to throw up some winter weather advisories for Litchfield Hartford talon in Windham counties?

I would think Litchfield and Tolland would get advisories eventually.

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at BDL on the NAM bufkit...NAM isn't bad for BDL. I was actually a bit surprised the ratio was as high as it is but the lift into the DGZ isn't too bad. This could be a case where BDL ends up with 2-3'' (which may be on the high side but I think it’s doable) while HFD ends up with like a coating. 

I don’t have much in the way of expectations. An inch of snow to just get on the board would be a win to me and mby.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is basically all snow from 495 outward. Not sure I buy it but we’ll see if short term guidance comes in cooler as we get closer this afternoon. 

Have to see how temperatures respond over the next hour or two. Have high clouds starting to filter into western sections now. Just looking at SPC mesoanalysis but looks like mainly like 33-35 within that area. But pretty big differences in the NAM/GFS...looks like the NAM has a little push of warmer air in the BL later this evening and overnight...noting some big differences between the 925 llvl jet on nam versus gfs too. 

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I would think Litchfield and Tolland would get advisories eventually.

I don’t have much in the way of expectations. An inch of snow to just get on the board would be a win to me and mby.

Litchfield City on into the high terrain areas of far western/northwestern HFD cty and then Northern Tolland on into northern Windham counties would be where I'd expect advisory statements.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Have to see how temperatures respond over the next hour or two. Have high clouds starting to filter into western sections now. Just looking at SPC mesoanalysis but looks like mainly like 33-35 within that area. But pretty big differences in the NAM/GFS...looks like the NAM has a little push of warmer air in the BL later this evening and overnight...noting some big differences between the 925 llvl jet on nam versus gfs too. 

Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

As Jeff said yesterday, beware the warm tongue

[FXWX]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at BDL on the NAM bufkit...NAM isn't bad for BDL. I was actually a bit surprised the ratio was as high as it is but the lift into the DGZ isn't too bad. This could be a case where BDL ends up with 2-3'' (which may be on the high side but I think its doable) while HFD ends up with like a coating. 

Tough call as to how far north you have to go up the I-91 corridor to get more than a slushy cover or an inch?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1. 

Probably far southeastern areas get close but seems like 925 will remain cold enough for most. There has been some wavering on this, but it seems the overall trend through the week has been towards a colder 925. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1. 

One thing I like about Wxnerds site is the granularity they have. On the 12z HRRR you can see 950 temps actually warm overnight near Kevin. So you are fighting wetbulbing and WAA at the same time. Verbatim it's likely snow when heavy, but could get real sloppy or be a mix if rates are weak. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Ukie woke up about time.. close to warning amounts here

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Tough call as to how far north you have to go up the I-91 corridor to get more than a slushy cover or an inch?

Yeah it really is, you're also toying with how quickly the precip shield blossoms because even if it remains on the colder side, the precip shield may blossom just a bit too late to produce enough QPF to bring 1-2'' along that corridor. There might be too many negating or fighting forces...probably be best and forecast/hope for something upwards of an inch.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing I like about Wxnerds site is the granularity they have. On the 12z HRRR you can see 950 temps actually warm overnight near Kevin. So you are fighting wetbulbing and WAA at the same time. Verbatim it's likely snow when heavy, but could get real sloppy or be a mix if rates are weak. 

Sick I'll have to check them out. I wish on COD they had more layers available for the HRRR but they only have sfc and 700. Wish they could also include point-and-click soundings like TT does. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sick I'll have to check them out. I wish on COD they had more layers available for the HRRR but they only have sfc and 700. Wish they could also include point-and-click soundings like TT does. 

Soundings are great, but sometimes I just want like a horizontal view to see what’s happening over a wider area.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like 12z euro improved a bit for the 495 belt too. Not expecting a lot of accumulation there but better chance to see an inch or two versus just a few flakes. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Euro looks ok.  About as expected. 

[ineedsnow]

congrats @Damage In Tolland

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
102 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

CTZ003-050715-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/
Tolland CT-
Including the cities of Vernon and Union
102 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches
  mainly for elevations above 600 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...Tolland CT County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The majority of the snow accumulations and
  impacts will be found in the Hills of northeast Connecticut...
  where slippery travel is expected.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc temps are mostly fake…look at 925 to get a good idea. Some areas might even radiate a bit right after sundown before clouds get thick (esp further northeast)…but that won’t matter if 925 is like +1. 

Clouds pretty thick already….

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

congrats @Damage In Tolland

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
102 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

CTZ003-050715-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/
Tolland CT-
Including the cities of Vernon and Union
102 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches
  mainly for elevations above 600 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...Tolland CT County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The majority of the snow accumulations and
  impacts will be found in the Hills of northeast Connecticut...
  where slippery travel is expected.

Yessah!