Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[HoarfrostHubb]

A blend of models typically seems the way to go... but which one do you favor?

45% Euro, 35% GFS, 19% NAM, 1% ICON, CMC, etc...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go NAM.

I love when there is weather going on because you can get some big time differences (at least with temperatures) from MOS/NBM, the 2m products, and bufkit. I should add with my comment, despite those differences, the end game isn't much different. Even on the "colder" guidance BOS is going to be too warm for snow but its just a difference of whether they can end as a mix or a brief period of all snow. 

I was looking at MOS/NBM for stations within the region...GARBAGE. Sometimes I think the NBM is a big time fraud. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It seems like everything the last few years has been a Nowcast in some way or another…

The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters. 

I fully expect to pay for that miracle over the next decade. With interest.  

[dryslot]

The days of yore of locking in model runs from day 4-5 have gone, Most are now inside 36 hrs or even 24 hrs out.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters. 

Literally every event except the two CJs.  

[ineedsnow]

not for the clipper but congrats Northern Ct / Southern MA today  on the RAP

[ROOSTA]

I was hoping to see a modeled Blizzard. D10 or closer.
Not so much for New England but anywhere in the CONUS.
Clippers just don't seem to cut it. I've always wanted to see some flurries IMBY, maybe this year...hoping anyway!    

[Layman]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The days of yore of locking in model runs from day 4-5 have gone, Most are now inside 36 hrs or even 24 hrs out.

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

The constant tinkering known as "upgrades"...

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

One would think with today's technology that modeling would be better not worse.

[ineedsnow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

MAZ002>004-008>010-012-026-041015-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Fitchburg, Blandford, Amherst, Milford,
Charlemont, Worcester, Orange, Chesterfield, Barre, Northampton,
Greenfield, and Ayer
134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-5" with
  localized 6" amounts possible in the highest terrain.

* WHERE...Much of Western and Central Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow accumulations of the snowfall
  range are expected to be in the higher terrain of the northern
  Worcester Hills and Berkshires.

[FXWX]

33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A blend of models typically seems the way to go... but which one do you favor?

45% Euro, 35% GFS, 19% NAM, 1% ICON, CMC, etc...

 I've been looking at the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal Maps (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/) ... Their blend of models for the maps is shown in the attached text image.  A combo of these maps and the HREF suite is my starting point, which I then tweak.  

The occasionally have a bias of being a bit too conservative but overall do a decent job.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/festive-winter-preview-on-tap-for-some.html

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One would think with today's technology that modeling would be better not worse.

Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. 

We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. 

But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process. 

[dryslot]

Kevin is in one of the saggy boobs.

[Prismshine Productions]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Boston/Norton MA134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024MAZ002>004-008>010-012-026-041015-/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Including the cities of Fitchburg, Blandford, Amherst, Milford,Charlemont, Worcester, Orange, Chesterfield, Barre, Northampton,Greenfield, and Ayer134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-5" with localized 6" amounts possible in the highest terrain.* WHERE...Much of Western and Central Massachusetts.* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow accumulations of the snowfall range are expected to be in the higher terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and Berkshires.

Want to see a funny map?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Kevin is in one of the saggy boobs.

Such is mid life in a constant catabolic state.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Want to see a funny map?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

some in western MA about to get crushed hoping it holds for the Westfield, Springfield, Hartford area.. they deserve it    and that map will fill in later on today for your area

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

some in western MA about to get crushed hoping it holds for the Westfield, Springfield, Hartford area.. they deserve it    and that map will fill in later on today for your area

Yeah the radar upstream looks pretty good.

[Prismshine Productions]

some in western MA about to get crushed hoping it holds for the Westfield, Springfield, Hartford area.. they deserve it    and that map will fill in later on today for your area

Yeah, for some unexpected reason NWS Albany has been extremely slow with the updates (they didn't even mention area accumulations until 2am this morning)

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

first and possibly last winter weather advisory of the season is out ...

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. 

We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. 

But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process. 

yet ...when some of us spend the time to really write detailed analysis from both surmise, as well as educated perspective base ... people don't read, rather ... make chide and/or make sarcastic barbs and general disrespect for the effort.

basically,  americans are turning into c*s

[Prismshine Productions]

first and possibly last winter weather advisory of the season is out ...

What makes you say last? Got no hope for the next 4 months?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

What makes you say last? Got no hope for the next 4 months?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

my schadenfruede for tuggin on taint hairs

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

What makes you say last? Got no hope for the next 4 months?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

 

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

my schadenfruede for tuggin on a taint hairs

In layman's terms, He's fukking with you.

[Layman]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yet ...when some of us spend the time to really write detailed analysis from both surmise, as well as educated perspective base ... people don't read, rather ... make chide and/or make sarcastic barbs and general disrespect for the effort.

basically,  americans are turning into c*s

For the record, I poke fun at some of your missives because the weather verbiage is way over my head.  I appreciate the time and effort you put in to explain your perspective even if I don't understand it.  It gives me something to look into, learn more about, consider, form my own opinions on, etc.  Others here also take the time to explain what their thoughts are, how things may play out and why they think that may be the case.  It's all appreciated and I'm sure there's a quieter group on here that takes the time to read the well thought out explanations and never responds, sarcastically or otherwise but benefits from the analysis.

I'd encourage you and others to keep it up, in spite of some of us dbags because any off color reply is only in jest (or should be!) and we all learn from your explanations.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

For the record, I poke fun at some of your missives because the weather verbiage is way over my head.  I appreciate the time and effort you put in to explain your perspective even if I don't understand it.  It gives me something to look into, learn more about, consider, form my own opinions on, etc.  Others here also take the time to explain what their thoughts are, how things may play out and why they think that may be the case.  It's all appreciated and I'm sure there's a quieter group on here that takes the time to read the well thought out explanations and never responds, sarcastically or otherwise but benefits from the analysis.

I'd encourage you and others to keep it up, in spite of some of us dbags because any off color reply is only in jest (or should be!) and we all learn from your explanations.

oh.. right.  no i meant that at a societal/general scope of this field, but may as well be everywhere heh.   it's a problem in culture..."eschewing of intellect" in general.  

it kind of reminds me of "Idiocrasy,"  when they arrested him for being smart ass because he was smart. hahaha

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lol... I have a certain school superintendent (not mine) asking my thoughts on Thursday

[CoastalWx]

18z HRRR going strong in the ORH hills. Still iffy for a time by Kevin's hood, but he'll flip to good snows verbatim for a time.